Patrick Butchard

So, in terms of the legal issues alone, aside from questions of politics, strategic defence, and security, the situation is complex and uncertain. There are legal avenues for challenge, but the outcome and likelihood of these are certainly not for me to speculate on.

While the ICJ's original Advisory Opinion, that the UK's continued administration of Chagos is unlawful and must be brought to an end, was not a "binding order" on the UK, it still has these legal effects where institutions and courts may follow it's legal reasoning and opinion.

The UN World Map...

www.un.org/geospatial/c...

Of course other legal arguments may be made concerning UK Sovereignty over Chagos, to try to counter these disputes. But the legal position is now "down the rabbit hole" because many states and UN institutions already treat Mauritius as sovereign over Chagos. See, for example:

So, the legal risks the UK has considered include the risk that ITLOS Provisional Measures may, in theory, prevent other non-military activities that the UK-US base relies on. But what? Shipping issues, construction, contractors, deliveries of goods or services? And so...

Pending an arbitration being set up, ITLOS can impose binding Provisional Measures. What these are and how far they go depends on the legal dispute and the measures sought. The UK has been brought before ITLOS in this way before in a case with Ireland.

itlos.org/en/main/case...

The UK also has not accepted ITLOS as the main forum for law of the sea disputes. But that does not mean it can't be brought before it. Where states disagree on the venue for a dispute, it goes to binding arbitration. But before that is set up, ITLOS can do something else...

While there is no clear definition of "military activities", it has not excluded the Tribunals from considering the environmental legal issues relating to construction, for example, following China's construction of islands in the South China Sea.

pcacases.com/web/sendAtta...

So what other disputes are possible? It's hard to predict. Because ITLOS has considered the Chagos sovereignty issue as "settled" by the ICJ in a case between Mauritius and the Maldives, it could relate to anything from customs enforcement, to environmental protection. But...

The UK has accepted this possibility to exclude such disputes, but has previously indicated that this does not prevent other legal challenges.

The Chagos issue is one of general sovereignty, not just military activities, so the government considers other legal risks exist...

A point of clarification on the Chagos legal issues (while remaining completely independent and impartial).

Article 298 of UNCLOS does allow states to exclude "military activities" and other specific law enforcement at sea from dispute settlement. But what does that mean...?

Reports suggest the UN will be rivalled by a "Board of Peace". But it's important to consider what this all means.

The UN, and the UN Charter, are referenced and reinforced by thousands, if not tens of thousands, of multilateral and bilateral treaties between states.

So...

In its 80th year, just the public threat of irrelevance or replacement of the UN may spur its Members into seriously making the reforms that have been long suggested and discussed.

The UN hasn't been this close to serious reform in some time - it *could* become a reality soon.

The UN will not be 'replaced' or 'rivalled' in this way. It remains the only body in the world legally allowed to take powerful measures to maintain and restore peace and security.

Powers used rarely, and only through compromise between powers.

The UN remained in existence throughout the Cold War - blocked and unable to fulfil its potential - but still relevant.

It survived decades of division, proxy wars, violations of the law, and paralysis. But it remained, it adapted, and even amended the Charter in this time.
So

This all notwithstanding the general principles established by the UN Charter that have since been embedded in international law, such as.

The principle of sovereign equality
The prohibition of the threat or use of force
The principle of non-intervention.

But, also...

1. A restriction on any enforcement measures, unless the UN Security Council authorised it (Article 53, UN Charter).

2. An underlying obligation to settle disputes peacefully (Article 2, UN Charter)

Reports suggest the proposed "Board of Peace" would grant a significant power of interpretation and decision making in its "Chairman".

It would also, quite vaguely, grant and Executive Board powers "as necessary and appropriate".

But the UN Charter adds limits, such as...

The UN Charter applies above any other agreements states make, according to Article 103 of the Charter.

Unless UN Member States collectively agreed to amend the UN charter within its terms, any new body will be subject to the foundational principles of the UN.

The proposed "Board of Peace", if it did go beyond the Gaza mandate, could not in any real way, replace the UN or its principles.

It could, on the other hand, act as a "Regional Arrangement" within the confines of Chapter VIII of the Charter.

Why can't it go beyond this? ...

Reports suggest the UN will be rivalled by a "Board of Peace". But it's important to consider what this all means.

The UN, and the UN Charter, are referenced and reinforced by thousands, if not tens of thousands, of multilateral and bilateral treaties between states.

So...

Peace deals, territorial changes, and international law Negotiations over the war in Ukraine are facing challenges over the fate of Ukraine's territory. This briefing explains the rules that might apply to territorial issues after a conflict.

New Commons Library Research Briefing:
Peace deals, territorial changes, and international law

Negotiations over the war in Ukraine are facing challenges over the fate of Ukraine's territory. This briefing explains the law behind this.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...

Peace deals, territorial changes, and international law Negotiations over the war in Ukraine are facing challenges over the fate of Ukraine's territory. This briefing explains the rules that might apply to territorial issues after a conflict.

New Commons Library Research Briefing:
Peace deals, territorial changes, and international law

Negotiations over the war in Ukraine are facing challenges over the fate of Ukraine's territory. This briefing explains the law behind this.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...

The the duty of non-recognition is to prevent states being coerced to transfer territory. Some arguments say that this even applies to "peace deals" in the context of force or occupation that is still ongoing - i.e Any peaceful transfers of territory must be separated from force.

Whatever Russia wants in a peace deal with Ukraine, a sticking point likely will be over trying to transfer Ukraine's territory. It's not just about whether Ukraine agrees, but what that means for the law and for states who don't want any state's territory to be taken by force 👇🏻

A poster advertising the book launch of the collection "International Law after the Ukraine War" on 4th November 2025. With a QR Code to register.

Book launch: International Law after the Ukraine War.

Open Access collection from Edge Hill University & Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University.

📅 Tues 4 Nov 2025 🕚 11am - 12:30pm 📍 Free Event (Online & In-person)

Register: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/bafd12...

A poster advertising the book launch of the collection "International Law after the Ukraine War" on 4th November 2025. With a QR Code to register.

Book launch: International Law after the Ukraine War.

Open Access collection from Edge Hill University & Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University.

📅 Tues 4 Nov 2025 🕚 11am - 12:30pm 📍 Free Event (Online & In-person)

Register: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/bafd12...

International Law After the Ukraine War | Jennifer Giblin, Olena Chub, Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine was a defining moment for international law and its ability to maintain international peace and security. This book highlights

Save the date: Book Launch for "International Law after the Ukraine War", 4th November 2025, Edge Hill University (UK) / Online. A new open-access resource, including key Ukrainian voices. Details to follow.

doi.org/10.4324/9781...

The Law and Reality Project - International Justice and Human Rights Centre The law and reality of the responsibility to maintain international peace and security This research project seeks to establish a network of experts, practitioners, policy stakeholders, and UN colleag...

🚨New Research Project: The Law and Reality of the Responsibility to Maintain International Peace and Security at the United Nations

We are inviting interested colleagues to an initial scoping workshop at Edge Hill University on November 12, 2025.

Details: sites.edgehill.ac.uk/ijhr/project...

The UK Sanctions Framework The UK sanctions framework is a significant set of powers to sanction individuals, businesses, and states. This paper explains the current operation of sanctions in the UK.

Just published: my latest House of Commons Library Briefing Paper on the UK Sanctions Framework.

This paper explains the current operation of sanctions in the UK, and is meant as a resource for navigating a complicated framework of legislation.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...