UK Earth System Model

New modelling highlights how the Amazon's rich biodiversity evolved & the growing threat posed by human activities🌳Study uses new method to integrate archaeological & geoscientific data into climate models, reconstructing past human-environment interactions—featured in a German Archaeology magazine.

🌍21st June is #ShowYourStripes day. The bar chart shows the temperature change in the UK up to 2024 compared to the average of 1961-2010 showyourstripes.info
2024 was the warmest year on record. 📣Take action! www.un.org/en/actnow/te...

Pace of warming has doubled since 1980s 19.06.2025 – The rate of global heating in the period 2012-2024 has roughly doubled from the 1980s according to the latest peer-reviewed update of “Indicators of Global Climate Change” published today...

New paper shows the pace of global warming has roughly doubled since the 1980s.

Led by @piersforster.bsky.social, over 60 scientists have worked to update "Indicators of Global Climate Change" - including PIK researchers @wflamb.bsky.social and Jan Minx.
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

Marine heatwave: UK sea temperatures soar after exceptionally warm Spring Sea temperatures in some areas off the UK and Ireland are 4C above average.

The marine heatwave in the seas around the UK and Ireland has soared this week, with some areas now 4°C warmer than normal, impacting marine life, fisheries & swimming activities🌊 Scientists predict 2025 will be one of the hottest years🌡️ @noc.ac.uk @metoffice.bsky.social
www.bbc.com/news/article...

"UKESM1 simulates all these steps, with advanced representation of atmospheric chemistry, physical climate processes, and the global carbon cycle... The important findings in this study would not have been possible without use of such an advanced Earth system model..." – Prof. Colin Jones

Integrating Land Surface Modelling and Machine Learning for Wildfire Prediction The Probability of Fire (PoF) model plays a vital role in wildfire attribution.

In an era of AI, why does explainable machine learning still matter for #wildfire prediction? ECMWF scientist Joe McNorton takes us inside the Probability of Fire (PoF) system to uncover the drivers of fire activity🔥 terrafirma.ac.uk/integrating-... @ukesm.bsky.social

Job Opportunity: Research Scientist - NCAS We are looking for a Research Scientist to join our team at the University of Reading.

We're hiring!

Join our team in Reading as a post-doctoral scientist.

Work on the PROMOTE project to develop innovative methods to represent and evaluate climate tipping points in a leading Earth system model.

Apply by 20 May 📆

ncas.ac.uk/job-opportun...

TerraFIRMA at EGU25 TerraFIRMA researchers will be taking part in the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU25) from Sunday 27 April until Friday 2 May 2025.

#TerraFIRMA researchers will be taking part in the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union #EGU25 from 27 April until 2 May 2025. Please come and meet us! @ncas-uk.bsky.social @nceoscience.bsky.social @metoffice.bsky.social @ukceh.bsky.social
terrafirma.ac.uk/terrafirma-a...

Millions of people die prematurely from air pollution every year, as you can see in the chart.

This problem has existed since humans started burning materials for fuel — first wood and biomass, then fossil fuels.

Whilst the TerraFIRMA project team is UK based, many of our team members are involved in a number of EU projects. The member-driven #ClimateResearchNet helps us to amplify our research findings, share best practices and find ways to collaborate on climate research 👇@ncas-uk.bsky.social

BUT a shift in perspective is needed: savannas are more fire-adapted than models assume. The role of fire in the future of forests needs attention... @ukceh.bsky.social @metoffice.bsky.social

20 years later: Tropical ecosystems in a world without fire Our findings suggest that the role of fire in the future of forests needs greater attention..

Over the last 20 years, land surface and Earth system models have increasingly used fire to explain tropical ecosystem distributions, particularly the surprising scarcity of trees in savannas. terrafirma.ac.uk/20-years-lat... 👇

UK National Climate Science Partnership The UK’s leading climate science organisations have joined forces to develop a new national alliance focused on climate solutions for society.

The UK National Climate Science Partnership has launched it's first newsletter and is organising a webinar (8th May) for the UK climate modelling community to discuss plans for delivery of results from UK models to CMIP7. Links to details via: terrafirma.ac.uk/uk-national-... #CMIP7

Abrupt Changes in the Timing and Magnitude of the North Atlantic Bloom Over the 21st Century Future stability of the North Atlantic bloom (NAB) examined using Earth system and high-resolution ocean model configurations The NAB collapses (halving of chlorophyll) across much of the North A...

‪🚨New publication alert!🚨 🌊
As part of the @terrafirmaclimate.bsky.social project, we've been looking at the fate of the #SpringBloom in the #NorthAtlantic #SubpolarGyre using our model, NEMO-MEDUSA (forced by @ukesm.bsky.social) ... agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

A Colin (Head of the UK Earth system modelling) and Torben (lead on OptimESM project) double act explaining tipping points in the Earth system. (lovely idea TipESM!)

YouTube video by TipESM TipESM Explained | Action

🌍 TipESM brings together scientists across disciplines to investigate the impacts of tipping pointson ecosystem & society, develop early warning indicators, & identify safe emission pathways

🎥 Want to learn more? Check out www.tipesm.eu

tinyurl.com/5bsdahc9

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized…

🚨New RESCUE paper!

Previous CMIP phases underrepresent carbon cycle uncertainty. There is a need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 to better capture carbon-climate feedbacks.

📝RESCUE contributor: Matthew J. Gidden - @iiasa.ac.at

🔗Read the paper:

The CANARI research programme is working on understanding how climate change in the Arctic and North Atlantic region will impact the United Kingdom, with a focus on extreme weather and the potential for rapid, disruptive change. canari.ac.uk

Our 2nd CANARI data SPRINT starts today, analysing the CANARI Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. It's a coordinated effort across NERC supported Centres along with international and UK researchers. @noc.ac.uk @ncas-uk.bsky.social @nceoscience.bsky.social @cpom-uk.bsky.social @bas.ac.uk

Climate Research Communication Network - ESM2025 Science-policy Climate Research Communication Network Policy Briefings & reports World Café Workshops Climate Research Communication Network Context Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our times and impacts […]

The guide aims to support newcomers to communication & dissemination activities in EU climate research projects!

It’s just the beginning, and we’re excited to see how this document develops with input from the community.
Stay tuned for updates 👉 bit.ly/climaterese...

#ClimateResearch

💡 Ideas flowed. Insights shared. Collaboration sparked.

The group shared practical tips and insights, sparking a collaborative effort to co-create a Best Practices guide for social media in climate research dissemination and communication.

Are you an EU Climate Research project working on comms/social media? Then you might be interested in our group of 20 EU climate research projects working together to improve our comms reach and impact. #ClimateResearchNet @esm2025.bsky.social

✔️We included other secondary sources of methane, such as natural emissions from oceans, methane hydrates & termites, and implemented methane removal via soil uptake. (6/6)

✔️We coupled the wetland scheme in JULES - the land surface component in @ukesm.bsky.social model - with the atmospheric composition model (UKCA). (5/6)

#Wetlands #MethaneCycle

✔️A comprehensive & interactive representation of atmospheric chemistry already implemented in the concentration-driven version of UKESM1 was a crucial starting point to build on (4/6)

#MethaneCycle

✔️To transition from a conc-driven to an emission-driven version of the UKESM1 model, we removed constraints at the lower boundary by methane surface mole fractions and replaced them with methane emissions, which implied explicitly including the main methane sources and sinks (3/6)

👉Few previous studies have investigated the possibility of using CH4 emissions to drive the modelled CH4 cycle instead of prescribing atmosph. conc. However, it's only last year that we've updated the release version of @ukesm.bsky.social model to run in emission-driven mode (2/6)

@ukesm.bsky.social ESM was the 1st Earth system model to include both the coupling of methane cycle with #wetlands and the implementation of comprehensive interactive #atmosphericchemistry.

To know + check out our Research Highlight bit.ly/3C2SInF
or 🧵👇

Impact studies should include high-sensitivity climate models High-sensitivity climate models should not be excluded when projecting future regional climate impacts because the level of warming measured globally is not always the only good indicator of regional ...

🌍 New research from @UniofReading, @NCEOscience @terrafirmaclimate.bsky.social and @metoffice shows that excluding high-sensitivity #climate models from impact assessments could overlook serious future outcomes at a regional level, 👉 www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

Award details | Funding and scholarships for students | University of Exeter

📣PhD studentship: Impact of small-magnitude volcanic eruptions on historical climate change - for September 2025. Location: Penryn Campus (Cornwall), University of Exeter.
Further details and application at www.exeter.ac.uk/study/fundin...
@metoffice.bsky.social @bristoluni.bsky.social