UK Earth System Model

Severe heatwaves and droughts are making extreme wildfires more frequent and intense worldwide The latest State of Wildfire report is building unequivocal evidence of how climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme wildfires.

Report reveals climate change increased likelihood of Southern California’s wildfires 🔥

The State of Wildfires report, co-led by the Met Office, @ukceh.bsky.social, @uniofeastanglia.bsky.social & @ecmwf.int evidences the link between climate change and wildfire activity.

Read more⬇️

TerraFIRMA & UKESM project member Dr Douglas Kelley introduced the latest State of Wildfires report he co-led🔥🌍

Day 3. GA's last morning: Wrap-up & perspectives with @rolandseferian.bsky.social and others.

4.5 years together. In a little over a month the project ends. Today we celebrate what we built in science and in community.

#ESM2025inToulouse is over.

Back from our vegan lunch — espresso kicks in.

Two rooms, two workshops:
•TCRE- @chrisd-jones.bsky.social @metoffice.gov.uk
•ESM Challenges: Complexity, Resolution & AI - chaired by Colin Jones @universityofleeds.bsky.social with presentations for various ESM2025 researchers.

#ESM2025inToulouse

GA Day2 kicks off!☕☀️
Keynote#3 "RCMIP2-a framework for simple climate modelling in the IPCC 7th assess & beyond"

Why Coordinated Calibration Matters?
➡️It allows us to separate the influence of model structure from calibration choices.
@benmsanderson.bsky.social @cicero.oslo.no
#ESM2025inToulouse

Now onto 2 collaborative workshops for the community:

📈 Improving the assessment of the transient climate response to cumulative CO₂ chaired by @chrisd-jones.bsky.social @uniofreading.bsky.social

📊: Model Selection workshop, chaired by Eleanor O'Rourke @wcrp-cmip.org

#ESM2025inToulouse

Back from lunch at #ESM2025inToulouse!
"The REF is a complete end to end system providing a systematic & rapid performance assess. of the expected models participating in the CMIP Assess. Fast Track, supporting the next IPCC AR7 cycle."
Ranjini Swaminathan @uniofreading.bsky.social @wcrp-cmip.org

The UKESM team is participating in #ESM2025inToulouse and looks forward to the gathering, sharing and discussion.🌐

The UKESM team is participating in ESM2025 and looks forward to the gathering, sharing and discussion.🌐

A rewarding day out helping to maintain hedge guards with @ncas-uk.bsky.social at #GairWood @universityofleeds.bsky.social 🌱🌳 #Conservation #Volunteering

British Antarctic Survey Careers | Greenland Ice/Ocean Modeller Two post-doctoral research positions in ocean and ice sheet modelling:   Greenland Ice/Ocean Modeller and Ice Modeller/Emulation Scientist

The Greenland Ice/Ocean Modeller (supervised by me) will advance the @ukesm.bsky.social's representation of Greenland's meltwater release to the ocean, and study implications for the collapse of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre: bas.ciphr-irecruit.com/applicants/v...

YESS, the Young Earth System Scientists community, is an interdisciplinary, international, bottom-up early career researchers (ECR) network in Earth system science, collaborating & exchanging on a range of themes through webinars, workshops, learning groups, etc. Find out more www.yess-community.org

Photograph of bright sun in a clear blue sky with clouds at the bottom. Text reads: 'Met Office NEWS RELEASE 26 August 2025 – This summer will ‘almost certainly’ be warmest on record for the UK.'

Provisional statistics from the Met Office show that summer 2025 will ‘almost certainly’ be the warmest summer on record for the UK.

It would move 2018 off the top spot and relegate 1976 out of the top five warmest summer in a series which dates back to 1884.
👉 www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

Check out new research papers from TerraFIRMA and UKESM at terrafirma.ac.uk/resources/ 🌐 @terrafirmaclimate.bsky.social @ukesm.bsky.social

New modelling highlights how the Amazon's rich biodiversity evolved & the growing threat posed by human activities🌳Study uses new method to integrate archaeological & geoscientific data into climate models, reconstructing past human-environment interactions—featured in a German Archaeology magazine.

🌍21st June is #ShowYourStripes day. The bar chart shows the temperature change in the UK up to 2024 compared to the average of 1961-2010 showyourstripes.info
2024 was the warmest year on record. 📣Take action! www.un.org/en/actnow/te...

Pace of warming has doubled since 1980s 19.06.2025 – The rate of global heating in the period 2012-2024 has roughly doubled from the 1980s according to the latest peer-reviewed update of “Indicators of Global Climate Change” published today...

New paper shows the pace of global warming has roughly doubled since the 1980s.

Led by @piersforster.bsky.social, over 60 scientists have worked to update "Indicators of Global Climate Change" - including PIK researchers @wflamb.bsky.social and Jan Minx.
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

Marine heatwave: UK sea temperatures soar after exceptionally warm Spring Sea temperatures in some areas off the UK and Ireland are 4C above average.

The marine heatwave in the seas around the UK and Ireland has soared this week, with some areas now 4°C warmer than normal, impacting marine life, fisheries & swimming activities🌊 Scientists predict 2025 will be one of the hottest years🌡️ @noc.ac.uk @metoffice.bsky.social
www.bbc.com/news/article...

"UKESM1 simulates all these steps, with advanced representation of atmospheric chemistry, physical climate processes, and the global carbon cycle... The important findings in this study would not have been possible without use of such an advanced Earth system model..." – Prof. Colin Jones

Integrating Land Surface Modelling and Machine Learning for Wildfire Prediction The Probability of Fire (PoF) model plays a vital role in wildfire attribution.

In an era of AI, why does explainable machine learning still matter for #wildfire prediction? ECMWF scientist Joe McNorton takes us inside the Probability of Fire (PoF) system to uncover the drivers of fire activity🔥 terrafirma.ac.uk/integrating-... @ukesm.bsky.social

Job Opportunity: Research Scientist - NCAS We are looking for a Research Scientist to join our team at the University of Reading.

We're hiring!

Join our team in Reading as a post-doctoral scientist.

Work on the PROMOTE project to develop innovative methods to represent and evaluate climate tipping points in a leading Earth system model.

Apply by 20 May 📆

ncas.ac.uk/job-opportun...

TerraFIRMA at EGU25 TerraFIRMA researchers will be taking part in the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU25) from Sunday 27 April until Friday 2 May 2025.

#TerraFIRMA researchers will be taking part in the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union #EGU25 from 27 April until 2 May 2025. Please come and meet us! @ncas-uk.bsky.social @nceoscience.bsky.social @metoffice.bsky.social @ukceh.bsky.social
terrafirma.ac.uk/terrafirma-a...

Millions of people die prematurely from air pollution every year, as you can see in the chart.

This problem has existed since humans started burning materials for fuel — first wood and biomass, then fossil fuels.

Whilst the TerraFIRMA project team is UK based, many of our team members are involved in a number of EU projects. The member-driven #ClimateResearchNet helps us to amplify our research findings, share best practices and find ways to collaborate on climate research 👇@ncas-uk.bsky.social

BUT a shift in perspective is needed: savannas are more fire-adapted than models assume. The role of fire in the future of forests needs attention... @ukceh.bsky.social @metoffice.bsky.social

20 years later: Tropical ecosystems in a world without fire Our findings suggest that the role of fire in the future of forests needs greater attention..

Over the last 20 years, land surface and Earth system models have increasingly used fire to explain tropical ecosystem distributions, particularly the surprising scarcity of trees in savannas. terrafirma.ac.uk/20-years-lat... 👇

UK National Climate Science Partnership The UK’s leading climate science organisations have joined forces to develop a new national alliance focused on climate solutions for society.

The UK National Climate Science Partnership has launched it's first newsletter and is organising a webinar (8th May) for the UK climate modelling community to discuss plans for delivery of results from UK models to CMIP7. Links to details via: terrafirma.ac.uk/uk-national-... #CMIP7

Abrupt Changes in the Timing and Magnitude of the North Atlantic Bloom Over the 21st Century Future stability of the North Atlantic bloom (NAB) examined using Earth system and high-resolution ocean model configurations The NAB collapses (halving of chlorophyll) across much of the North A...

‪🚨New publication alert!🚨 🌊
As part of the @terrafirmaclimate.bsky.social project, we've been looking at the fate of the #SpringBloom in the #NorthAtlantic #SubpolarGyre using our model, NEMO-MEDUSA (forced by @ukesm.bsky.social) ... agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

A Colin (Head of the UK Earth system modelling) and Torben (lead on OptimESM project) double act explaining tipping points in the Earth system. (lovely idea TipESM!)

YouTube video by TipESM TipESM Explained | Action

🌍 TipESM brings together scientists across disciplines to investigate the impacts of tipping pointson ecosystem & society, develop early warning indicators, & identify safe emission pathways

🎥 Want to learn more? Check out www.tipesm.eu

tinyurl.com/5bsdahc9