David Beard

Here's every state that could draw a new congressional map by 2026 Most states can't pass new maps quickly—but those that can favor Republicans

There's been a lot of confusion about which states could redraw their House maps before the midterms, so we've put together a definitive guide to every state that could actually do so—16 in all.

We explain the likelihood of new maps, probable targeted districts, and any obstacles to passage.

How Rob Sand plans to win Iowa’s governorship Watch now | There's a lot of evidence the state is purpler than you might think

Iowa Auditor and candidate for governor Rob Sand @robsandia.bsky.social joins us on this week's podcast! Sand tells us about the massive lottery scandal he busted, how he won by just 3,000 votes in 2022, and his plan to win the governorship next year.
www.the-downballot.com/p/how-rob-sa...

It's becoming clear that this is not an administration that is popular or skilled enough to do the consolidation needed to implement actual fascism, so they've decided that constantly creating fascism-flavored content is good enough

One of the major problems of our age is that Ezra Klein ascribes to Charlie Kirk a shared commitment to a free exchange of ideas which Charlie Kirk manifestly and expressly did not hold.

Three huge retirements Listen now | Plus a top AFL-CIO official explains how the federation helps elect pro-labor candidates

On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we're examining the fallout from three huge retirements in NY, IA & WI.

We also talk to Jennifer Rodriguez, a top official at the @aflcio.org, who explains how her organization helps elect pro-labor candidates to office.

Listen here!

The inside scoop on Texas Dems' walkout Listen now | State Rep. Mihaela Plesa tells us all about Democrats' new life on the road

Texas state Rep. Mihaela Plesa, who's on the road with fellow Dems to block the GOP's new gerrymander, joined us on The Downballot podcast this week to give us the inside scoop on her caucus' remarkable quorum break. Listen here!

How every blue state can counter new GOP gerrymanders For many, fighting fire with fire won't be easy, but it's always possible

There's been a lot of misinformation and wishful thinking out there about how Dems might counter new GOP gerrymanders, so we just published a special report explaining how *every* single blue state (and a few purple ones) could respond.

We've left no stone unturned. Read our piece below.

Texas chainsaw gerrymander Listen now | How the GOP is targeting Dems—and how Dems might respond

On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, veteran reporter Ally Mutnick of @punchbowlnews.bsky.social talks with David Beard all about the Texas Chainsaw Gerrymander. Which seats are Republicans targeting, and how might Dems respond? All that and more—listen here!

As @dwbeard.bsky.social and @davidnir.com noted on their podcast last week, Cooper won NC in 2106 and 2020 while Trump won the state

NC Dems did great work in 2024 - among other things breaking GOP supermajority in the House. Look forward to a banner year up and down the ballot in 2026

Zohran's pollster pulls back the curtain on how he won Listen now | Jane Rayburn of Workbench Strategy gives us the inside scoop on a stunning upset

Fantastic interview with Mamdani's pollster @janerayburn.bsky.social by @davidnir.com and @dwbeard.bsky.social of @the-downballot.com. A particularly good example of the difference between a pollster who tells the candidate what to say and a good pollster: open.substack.com/pub/thedownb...

California's plan to thwart a Texas gerrymander Listen now | And state Sen. Deb Krishnadasan tells us what it's like to run in a special election

Special elections are our favorite topic on The Downballot podcast, so this week, we decided to talk to a candidate who's actually running in one! Join us for our interview with WA Sen. Deb Krishnadasan, who's defending one of the state's swingiest districts for the @wasenatedemocrats.bsky.social.

OPINION TODAY featured podcast —
@zohrankmamdani.bsky.social's pollster pulls back the curtain on how he won: @davidnir.com and @dwbeard.bsky.social speak with @janerayburn.bsky.social of Workbench Strategy.
(@the-downballot.com‬)
opiniontoday.substack.com/i/168060559/...

Zohran's pollster pulls back the curtain on how he won Listen now | Jane Rayburn of Workbench Strategy gives us the inside scoop on a stunning upset

How did Zohran Mamdani pull off his astonishing upset? We just had an amazing conversation with his pollster, @janerayburn.bsky.social of Workbench Strategy, who pulls back the curtain on his win on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Listen here!

Chart shows the distribution of Bluesky followers per user.

If you have 400 followers, you're in the top 1% of Bluesky users
bsky.jazco.dev/stats

Stories about Al deployment tend to fall into a few categories. You've got productivity stories, where workers — most visibly at tech companies — talk about how Al tools are making parts of their jobs easier or harder, increasing their workload or simply making them redundant and taking their jobs. You've got top-down management stories, where Al use is suggested or mandated by leaders demanding more efficiency, who are either betting that a great deal of automation is possible within their firms, or who are just worried about getting left behind. Then you've got the stories in which people are more clearly using new Al tools against one another in an escalatory way. Job hunters, now able to generate custom applications instantly, flood employers, so employers turn to Al to manage the glut. Spammers and other bad-faith actors flood social media with near-infinite material, pushing the platforms to double down on automated moderation. Rapidly generated presentations lead to rapidly scheduled meetings recorded and automatically transcribed by AI assistants for machine summarization and analysis. Dating-app users generate chats with Al only to be filtered and then responded to by someone else using AI. The starkest and most consequential such story is what's happening in education: Teachers dealing with students who generate entire essays and assignments are turning to Al-powered plagiarism detectors, or getting pitched on ed-tech software that solves cheating with surveillance - with, of course, the help of AI.

These are stories about AI, but they're also stories about broken systems. Students flocking to ChatGPT in the classroom suggests that they see school in terms of arbitrary tasks and attainment rather than education. The widespread use of Al in job hunting drives home the extent to which platforms like LinkedIn, which promises to connect job seekers with employers, have instead installed themselves between them, pushing both sides to either pay up or dishonestly game their systems. A dating app where users see opportunity in automated flirting must already be a pretty grim space. If Facebook can be so quickly and thoroughly overwhelmed by Al-generated imagery and bots, it probably wasn't much of a social network anymore — a low-trust platform better at monetizing users than connecting them. Smaller-scale AI arms races like these don't take hold unless users (or workers, or students) have already been pitted against one another by systems they don't respect. In an uncomfortably large portion of modern life - especially online - that's exactly what's happened.

The real AI arms race is between one another 🥰 nymag.com/intelligence...

A fascinating map from @donnermaps.bsky.social overlaying Tuesday's Dem primary results with a map of the NYC subway system.

Inspired by an astute observation from @kleinman.bsky.social, who noted that Mamdani did better in areas served by the subway while Cuomo did better in car-centric areas.

Brad Lander was a hero in this campaign and deserves a major role in the Mamdani administration

There was an assumption that bigger turnout would favor Cuomo but I can imagine that relatively low-engaged primary voters who tuned in late saw:
-Excitement around Mamdani
-The cross-endorsement of Lander
-Cuomo's pitiful campaign
and they ended up going for Mamdani en masse

Given what we've seen from the E-Day vote (pending location variance of the results) so far I'd rather be Mamdani than Cuomo

Many expect Zohran Mamdani to take the WFP line if he loses to Cuomo. That’s far from a sure thing Mamdani could run in the general election as the candidate of the Working Families Party, but he and the Democratic Socialists of America don’t bother with unwinnable races.

A very good rundown of what might happen with the WFP ballot line in November if Cuomo wins the primary www.cityandstateny.com/politics/202...

The vast majority of 1st round results will be available Tuesday night/Wednesday early morning (like a normal election night) but the ranked choice voting tabulations won't be published until July 1

NYC's messy primary goes down to the wire Listen now | Is Cuomo's lead big enough to halt a late surge by Mamdani?

On today's episode of The Downballot podcast, we have our in-depth NYC primary preview *and* our equally in-depth VA primary recap. Plus, a winner of the Second Annual Downballot Awards is back in the news!

Listen & subscribe here -->

the letters LGBTQ+ as big 3D shapes with various people, all queer, and hearts in different queer flag colours hanging out between them

an illustration I did this past week for the Irish Independent to celebrate pride! happy pride, friends 💜

Weird they're showing Swan Lake on Fox right now

If you’re overstimulated, please report to the Bluesky cooldown tent where we have orange slices and someone who doesn’t understand the concept of jokes waiting for you

Defying DeSantis, Florida Pride Marchers Light Up Jacksonville Bridge with Rainbow Organizers demonstrated that they didn’t need state permission for queer visibility.

1. Florida banned cities from lighting up bridges rainbow colors for Pride.

So the people of Jacksonville did it themselves using flashlights and gels.

They opened the drawbridge to block them.

So they marched to a different bridge.

The latest from S. Baum.

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I think Ohio is at least as good of an opportunity as Iowa and Texas (all of which are stretches to be clear) - Brown did win re-election in the first Trump midterm after all

The GOP war on direct democracy Listen now | And the top state supreme court elections of the cycle

The GOP's been trying to make it harder for citizens to effect change at the ballot box for years, and their latest assault on direct democracy has washed ashore in Florida. Amy Keith of @commoncausefl.bsky.social tells us all about it on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Listen here →→

The only play Johnson has ever had as speaker is to call in Trump to yell at holdouts (which to be fair has always worked!) but now we'll have to see what his backup plan is.

It's official: Six months and eight days after the election, Democratic Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs has her 734-vote win over Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin certified. She'll be formally sworn in at 10am. #ncpol