@dwbeard.bsky.social
Co-host of The Downballot podcast and contributing editor at The Downballot. Labor staffer, he/him π³οΈβπ
Direct hit, losing altitude, everyone get your parachutes
01.02.2026 03:45 β π 832 π 84 π¬ 8 π 1
What would happen if Trump sends his goons to terrorize a city during an election? The brave residents of the Twin Cities just showed usβin astonishing fashion.
On this The Downballot podcast this week, we discuss the astonishing special election in St. Paulβand why Trump should fear a backlash.
Noting that Trump clearly thinks it's fine to say really nasty things about someone just after they've died - might revisit this post one day
15.12.2025 15:20 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
Deadline write up implies thereβs a UK bidding war and an announcement is imminent deadline.com/2025/12/heat...
12.12.2025 17:23 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Trump is pretty much already a lame duck at this point
11.12.2025 21:59 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
The GOP is deeply unsettled by the big Dem showing in #TN07. On The Downballot podcast this week, @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social explain why they're right to be.
We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!
Given what weβve seen, Behn should win the early vote in total, but we know the E-Day vote will shift red so the question is by how much and is there any differential turnout between rural and non-rural counties
03.12.2025 01:28 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0While we were recording the show, @dwbeard.bsky.social & I debated whether to address the TX dissent, which had just dropped. We decided we couldn't, because it would have simply taken way too long to dissect all the lunacy.
But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->
People coming to bluesky because twitter is broke
18.11.2025 12:57 β π 4455 π 835 π¬ 7 π 3
We've got a jam-packed podcast this week!
First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue.
Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary.
Listen here!
Congrats!
11.11.2025 17:38 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Warner is obviously a no because he's up for re-election next year - I'd be surprised if any 2026ers running again vote for it
10.11.2025 01:37 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0You can see how the House Dems are almost unanimously opposed to this b/c they have the luxury of the House GOP being solely responsible for passing legislation.
10.11.2025 01:31 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0The best outcome would have been the elimination of the filibuster but GOP Senators understand that the filibuster is much better for them than for Dems. This fight, like so much of our modern system of government, is about the cost of allowing the filibuster to run wild.
10.11.2025 01:27 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Every shutdown fight ends the same way (moderates concede with little to show to outrage from the base) b/c their very existence is an error in how the fed government runs. Dems are the opposition, they should not be forced to vote for legislation for the GOP-led government to function.
10.11.2025 01:27 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0I loved this observation/conversation between the Davids on this weekβs @the-downballot.com podcast.
Whereas so many elite institutions have caved to Trump in the face of his threats this year, it is the PEOPLE who have consistently stood up to him, whether as voters, protesters, or even jurors.
If you havenβt listened to the Downballot recap yet did the election even happen ?
06.11.2025 16:00 β π 13 π 4 π¬ 0 π 0VP Cheney will be honoured with a 21 gun salute accidentally aimed directly at 21 of his friends
04.11.2025 11:42 β π 9029 π 2279 π¬ 75 π 76
Should Mr. Maduroβs government fall and be replaced by a stable leadership open to improved relations with the United States, Chevron would be best positioned for what the Trump administration believes would be a boom in investment
This is a pretty enormous if! www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/w...
04.11.2025 20:00 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Stoked to see all the love @gelliottmorris.com is getting todayβand that's precisely why we're joining forces to cover tonight's election results on our livestream!
Join us at 7 PM ET for The Downballot's collab with Strength In Numbers. It's the best coverage you'll find anywhere!
And join us tomorrow night starting at 7 PM ET for our livestream coverage of all the results with @davidnir.com and @dwbeard.bsky.social of The Downballot and @gelliottmorris.com of Strength In Numbers!
03.11.2025 17:49 β π 16 π 7 π¬ 0 π 0
We obsessively track overlooked elections all year so that we can bring you special reports like this oneβour guide to the top races of 2025.
We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more!
Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->
I promise you that @gelliottmorris.com @davidnir.com and I will be better on The Downballotβs livestream than this
01.11.2025 02:32 β π 19 π 3 π¬ 1 π 0
Election Day is finally here, so that means weβre previewing all of the top races on this weekβs episode of The Downballot podcast! Naturally, we check in on the marquee contests in CA, NJ & VA, but we also highlight some lesser-watched elections happening in places like GA, ME & PA.
Listen below!
It's the most delicious time of the year: The Downballot's annual election prediction contestβaka the babka contestβis back!
Enter to prove your prognostication prowess *and* for the chance to win amazing prizes from our sponsor, Green's Babka!
Good luck, one and all!
Politically, the landscape is shifting too:
π΄ Nearly all platforms have become more Republican
π΅ But they remain Democratic-leaning overall
πββοΈ Democrats are fleeing to smaller platforms (Bluesky, Threads, Mastodon)
Is social media dying? How much has Twitter changed as it became X? Which party now dominates the conversation?
Using nationally representative ANES data from 2020 & 2024, I map how the U.S. social media landscape has transformed.
Here are the key take-aways π§΅
arxiv.org/abs/2510.25417
A new internal poll from Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn shared exclusively with The Downballot finds her trailing in the Dec. 2 special election for Tennesseeβs conservative 7th District but argues she can still pull an upset. The survey, conducted by Workbench Strategy a week after the Oct. 7 primaries, shows Republican Matt Van Epps, a former member of Gov. Bill Leeβs Cabinet, leading Behn by a 51-41 margin. Four independent candidates, meanwhile, split 7% of the vote; when pressed to choose between the two major-party options, Van Eppsβ edge narrows slightly to 52-44. Given that Donald Trump carried the 7th District 60-38 last year, Workbenchβs read indicates that the gap has been roughly halved. With Van Epps already over 50%, though, Behn would need to both win over undecided voters and convince some of her opponentβs supporters to switch sides or stay home.
NEW, exclusively in The Downballot's Morning Digest:
Trump won #TN07 by 22. Dem Aftyn Behn's new poll has it as a 10-point race.
The problem is that her GOP opponent is already at 51, but her pollster argues that an upset remains possible.
Our full writeup: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
this rocks. when indiana edu killed the student newspaper, Purdue stepped up, printed the forbidden issue, drove it to Bloomington and stocked the boxes.
18.10.2025 18:27 β π 15575 π 4489 π¬ 15 π 2Also on this week's show, co-hosts @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social discuss why the #MESen Dem primary offers an ideal "shakedown cruise" for candidates to prove their mettle before the general election. CNN's new report about Graham Platner's social media today shows why that test matters!
16.10.2025 15:56 β π 11 π 7 π¬ 1 π 0
