@abstrusezebra.bsky.social
Posts about African and Asian security and politics. From Australia.
Abiy escalates rhetoric against Eritrea and the TPLF again, though the ENDF continue to struggle to contain Fano and one would think they lack the bandwidth for further military action.
addisstandard.com/ethiopia-acc...
With mollification having failed, the President has turned to the Army, appointing a general as PM and tasking them to use even more force to crush protests.
07.10.2025 11:47 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
While Malema is no doubt guilty by the letter of the law, the choice to prosecute him for this offence is interesting after years of turning a blind eye to similar actions. Once sentenced and the appeals process is exhausted, Malema will be stripped of his status as MP.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
The President of Magagascar's attempts to mollify protesters with the dissolution of the Government has failed with protests continuing if not intensifying today. The UN has raised alarms over the 22 killed in the brutal crackdowns by security forces
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
Recent ENDF defeats at the hands of Fano (Amharan nationalist rebels) in Amhara may with luck constrain Ethiopian ambitions as it reminds Abiy Ahmed how stretched the Ethiopian Army is.
27.09.2025 10:44 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 1
Seems very probable that the Thai-Cambodian ceasefire will collapse in the next few days. While blame lies on both sides, the Thai Government seems to be acting most escalatory in an attempt to prove its national security credentials.
25.09.2025 12:12 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
The culmination of Salva Kiir's campaign against his enemies has now come. He feels confident surrounded by Ugandan troops and now moves to eliminate what he views as the head of the snake. However, he misunderstands a more grassroots and widespread resistance movement.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Increasingly concerned that Ethiopia will invade Eritrea to take the Assab port in the coming days to weeks. While such a course of action appears folly with the country internally divided and the Tigrayans not yet quelled, it is no longer possible to just assume cooler heads will prevail.
09.09.2025 08:10 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 1Foiled coup attempt in Mali only deepens insecurity in the country. Over 50 officers arrested and counting greatly weakening the war effort. Even if it had been successful no military regime has the answer to the worsening insurgencies.
11.08.2025 11:49 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0While agreements and declarations of intent have been signed between Rwanda and the DRC as well as directly between M23 and the DRC, peace has not been forthcoming. While Rwanda and M23 pretend to seek peace in Qatar, M23 continue to advance and commit atrocities in Kivu.
apnews.com/article/cong...
Article from Foreign Affairs on Washington's role in preventing the coming war between Ethiopian, Eritrea, and Tigray.
www.foreignaffairs.com/ethiopia/eth...
Abiy and his Tigrayan allies now formally are committing to the goal of regime change in Tigray, either peacefully or by force.
umdmedia.com/general-tsad...
These irregular but not uncommon border clashes between Uganda and South Sudan remain an ever present thorn in the side of the relationship between Salva Kiir and Museveni, at a time when Kiir is almost totally dependent on Uganda for his political survival.
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
After a couple of false starts the ceasefire now appears stable and bilateral dialogue has begun. However, I suspect permanent damage to the Thai-Cambodian relationship has been done and militarism/violence as an extension of politics continues to be legitimised around the world.
29.07.2025 11:18 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0The transitional charter signed here has now turned into a parallel regime headquartered in Nyala, South Darfur. While the RSF attempt to legitimise themselves with these political stunts, their militias continue to reave and pillage their way across Sudan.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/...
Trump's intervention to bring both sides to the table has so far had no success, with fighting continuing and often intensifying overnight and throughout the day. It is possible fighting is intensifying in an attempt to achieve objectives prior to an imminent ceasefire, but no indications yet.
27.07.2025 07:48 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0The war continues to expand with fighting now running almost the whole length of the border. No realistic path to ending the fighting has so far appeared.
26.07.2025 02:52 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 1Situation continues to deteriorate with tank clashes and repeated Thai air attacks against Cambodian targets. Cambodia for its part is pursuing a deliberate policy of striking civilian targets.
24.07.2025 11:32 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 1
Crisis in Cambodian-Thai relations after months of tensions and with Thailand mired in political instability. I suspect Thailand hoped to quickly occupy a small sliver of border territory to save face and bit off more than they could chew.
www.bbc.com/news/live/c9...
The TIA have moved to do away with the independent/Reda aligned administrations in Southern Tigray. Earlier today, Reda Getachew in his capacity as Abiy's advisor on Horn Affairs strongly implied this action would be war.
www.bbc.com/amharic/arti...
Mali's choice to do away with any pretense of intent to restore civilian rule or democracy is a sign of weakness not strength out of the junta in Bamako. If they were comfortable in their position they would relax restrictions and allow controlled elections.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/...
UN Special Rapporteur has submitted the annual report on human rights in Eritrea. None of the results should be surprising, though some remain quite shocking. 18% of its population have fled the country.
documents.un.org/doc/undoc/ge...
Iranโs Foreign Ministry said that "the U.S. has itself launched a dangerous war against Iranโ after the United States attacked three nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic.
22.06.2025 06:30 โ ๐ 174 ๐ 51 ๐ฌ 39 ๐ 8
Hmm, another peace agreement on the cards between Rwanda and the DRC, I am doubtful it fair any better than the previous attempts. And extremely doubtful it will do anything to address Rwanda's ongoing occupation and shadow annexation in Kivu.
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
The SAF announce their intent to withdraw from the Sudan-Libya-Egypt border triangle after the joint attack by RSF forces and elements of Haftar's LNA. This has long been a redline for Egypt and seems likely to spur an immediate response from Cairo.
almohagig.com?p=18775
Anti-TPLF-D forces (aligned with Addis Ababa however unwillingly) are setting out their agenda for the coming hostilities.
www.bbc.com/tigrinya/art...
The Ethiopian blockade of Tigray appears designed to force the TPLF/Tigray to open hostilities in the coming conflict, hoping to divide both Tigray and its embryonic alliance with Eritrea. I suspect this is a miscalculation as Ethiopian induced starvation is sure to unite a divided Tigray.
31.05.2025 01:02 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
While rumours of Afwerki announcing support for Tigrayan independence were unfounded, he took an extremely aggressive tone towards Abiy and Ethiopia. Afwerki has utilised Independence Day addresses to announce policy shifts before such as in both 2018 and 2020.
shabait.com/2025/05/24/k...
www.state.gov/releases/off...
US signals a willingness to draw closer to Eritrea after decades of animosity amid regional tensions and a diplomatic spat with Addis Ababa. With war looming this seems to encourage decisive action by Asmara.
Ethiopia refuses to negotiate as the health worker general strike escalated, preferring instead to resort to increasingly desperate strike breaking methods, conscripting both foreign and local doctors and arresting those who resist.
addisstandard.com/hospitals-in...
