Abstruse Zebra

Ethiopia’s Tigray Temptation Only America can prevent a new war in the Horn of Africa.

Article from Foreign Affairs on Washington's role in preventing the coming war between Ethiopian, Eritrea, and Tigray.

www.foreignaffairs.com/ethiopia/eth...

General Tsadikan Launches Multi-Party Movement to End TPLF Rule, Calls for Civil Disobedience Across Tigray - Understanding, Measuring and Doing In a bold move signaling growing resistance to Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) dominance and dissatisfaction with Tigray’s current political and military leadership, four political parties, AREN...

Abiy and his Tigrayan allies now formally are committing to the goal of regime change in Tigray, either peacefully or by force.

umdmedia.com/general-tsad...

At least six killed in border clashes between South Sudan and Uganda At least six people have been killed in clashes between longstanding allies South Sudan and Uganda near their shared border, where competing claims over the poorly defined boundary often flare into small-scale fighting.

These irregular but not uncommon border clashes between Uganda and South Sudan remain an ever present thorn in the side of the relationship between Salva Kiir and Museveni, at a time when Kiir is almost totally dependent on Uganda for his political survival.

www.reuters.com/world/africa...

After a couple of false starts the ceasefire now appears stable and bilateral dialogue has begun. However, I suspect permanent damage to the Thai-Cambodian relationship has been done and militarism/violence as an extension of politics continues to be legitimised around the world.

The transitional charter signed here has now turned into a parallel regime headquartered in Nyala, South Darfur. While the RSF attempt to legitimise themselves with these political stunts, their militias continue to reave and pillage their way across Sudan.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/...

Trump's intervention to bring both sides to the table has so far had no success, with fighting continuing and often intensifying overnight and throughout the day. It is possible fighting is intensifying in an attempt to achieve objectives prior to an imminent ceasefire, but no indications yet.

The war continues to expand with fighting now running almost the whole length of the border. No realistic path to ending the fighting has so far appeared.

Situation continues to deteriorate with tank clashes and repeated Thai air attacks against Cambodian targets. Cambodia for its part is pursuing a deliberate policy of striking civilian targets.

Thailand seals entire border with Cambodia after clashes kill at least one Both sides have accused each other of firing the first shot as border tensions between the two South East Asian neighbours heat up

Crisis in Cambodian-Thai relations after months of tensions and with Thailand mired in political instability. I suspect Thailand hoped to quickly occupy a small sliver of border territory to save face and bit off more than they could chew.

www.bbc.com/news/live/c9...

በደቡብ ትግራይ የፀጥታ ኃይሎች "የአስተዳደር ለውጥ" ለማድረግ መሰማራታቸውን ሌ/ጄ ታደሰ ወረደ አስታወቁ - BBC News አማርኛ በደቡብ ትግራይ የፀጥታ ኃይሎች "የአስተዳደር ለውጥ" ለማድረግ መሰማራታቸውን ሌ/ጄ ታደሰ ወረደ አስታወቁ

The TIA have moved to do away with the independent/Reda aligned administrations in Southern Tigray. Earlier today, Reda Getachew in his capacity as Abiy's advisor on Horn Affairs strongly implied this action would be war.
www.bbc.com/amharic/arti...

Mali military chief granted renewable five-year presidential term The move clears the way for Assimi Goita to lead Mali until at least 2030, despite pledge to return to civilian rule.

Mali's choice to do away with any pretense of intent to restore civilian rule or democracy is a sign of weakness not strength out of the junta in Bamako. If they were comfortable in their position they would relax restrictions and allow controlled elections.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/...

UN Special Rapporteur has submitted the annual report on human rights in Eritrea. None of the results should be surprising, though some remain quite shocking. 18% of its population have fled the country.

documents.un.org/doc/undoc/ge...

Live updates: US intervenes in war between Israel and Iran by striking 3 Iranian nuclear sites Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency early Sunday acknowledged an attack on the country’s Fordo nuclear site.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that "the U.S. has itself launched a dangerous war against Iran” after the United States attacked three nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic.

Rwanda, DRC initial peace agreement ahead of signing next week Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo technical teams initialed a draft peace agreement that is expected to be signed next week, the two countries and the United States said on Wednesday, aiming for an end to fighting in eastern Congo.

Hmm, another peace agreement on the cards between Rwanda and the DRC, I am doubtful it fair any better than the previous attempts. And extremely doubtful it will do anything to address Rwanda's ongoing occupation and shadow annexation in Kivu.

www.reuters.com/world/africa...

الجيش السوداني يخلي قواته من المثلث الحدودي مع مصر وليبيا - المحقق الخرطوم – المحقق أعلن الجيش السوداني إخلاء قواته من منطقة المثلث الحدودية بين السودان ومصر وليبيا. وقال الجيش السوداني في بيان نشره على حسابه في منصة فيس بوك (الأربعاء) واطلع عليه “المحقق” إنه “في إطا...

The SAF announce their intent to withdraw from the Sudan-Libya-Egypt border triangle after the joint attack by RSF forces and elements of Haftar's LNA. This has long been a redline for Egypt and seems likely to spur an immediate response from Cairo.

almohagig.com?p=18775

ኣብ 'ሓራ መሬት' ዕጡቓት ይመርሕ ምስ ዘሎ ወዲ ኣንጥሩ ቢቢሲ ዝገበሮ ፍሉይ ቃለመሕትት - BBC News ትግርኛ ብርጋዴር ጀነራል ገብረእግዚኣብሄር በየነ ወዲ ኣንጥሩ፡ ካብቶም ኣብ እዋን ኲናት ትግራይ ስሞም ተደጋጊሙ ዝለዓል መራሕቲ ዀይኑ፡ ብፍላይ ኣርሚ 50 ብዝብል ዝፍለጥ ፍሉይ ሓይሊ [ኮማንዶ] ኣብ ሓጺር እዋን ከምዝሃነፀ ይንገር።

Anti-TPLF-D forces (aligned with Addis Ababa however unwillingly) are setting out their agenda for the coming hostilities.

www.bbc.com/tigrinya/art...

The Ethiopian blockade of Tigray appears designed to force the TPLF/Tigray to open hostilities in the coming conflict, hoping to divide both Tigray and its embryonic alliance with Eritrea. I suspect this is a miscalculation as Ethiopian induced starvation is sure to unite a divided Tigray.

Keynote Address by President Isaias Afwerki on the Occasion of the 34th Independence Anniversary Asmara, 24 May 2025 Ladies and Gentlemen,Allow me to extend my warmest congratulations to the patriotic Eritrean people at home and abroad, to all its friends, as well as to the free peoples of the world.Let me further e...

While rumours of Afwerki announcing support for Tigrayan independence were unfounded, he took an extremely aggressive tone towards Abiy and Ethiopia. Afwerki has utilised Independence Day addresses to announce policy shifts before such as in both 2018 and 2020.

shabait.com/2025/05/24/k...

Eritrea National Day - United States Department of State On behalf of the United States of America, I congratulate Eritreans around the world on the 34th anniversary of Eritrea’s independence. On this occasion, we recognize the deep spirit that motivates Er...

www.state.gov/releases/off...

US signals a willingness to draw closer to Eritrea after decades of animosity amid regional tensions and a diplomatic spat with Addis Ababa. With war looming this seems to encourage decisive action by Asmara.

Hospitals in Addis Abeba, various regional states remain largely non-operational as Ethiopian health professionals launch full strike - Addis Standard Hospitals in Addis Abeba, various regional states remain largely non-operational as Ethiopian health professionals launch full strike Addis Standard News -

Ethiopia refuses to negotiate as the health worker general strike escalated, preferring instead to resort to increasingly desperate strike breaking methods, conscripting both foreign and local doctors and arresting those who resist.
addisstandard.com/hospitals-in...

Ethiopia’s Election Board revokes TPLF’s legal status - Addis Standard Ethiopia’s Election Board revokes TPLF’s legal status Addis Standard Breaking -

Ethiopia's election board has now deregistered the TPLF. The last act plays out in slow motion.

addisstandard.com/ethiopias-el...

If these reports are accurate it seems likely the endgame in Tigray is upon us. A ban on foreigners was one of Ethiopia's final acts in the run up to the Tigray War in October and November 2020. Tigrayan, Eritrean and Ethiopian military forces all seem to be mostly prepared for such an eventuality.

Burkina Faso forces killed at least 100 civilians in a March attack, Human Rights Watch says Human Rights Watch says at least 100 civilians in Burkina Faso were killed by government forces near the town of Solenzo in the western Boucle du Mouhoun region in an attack in March.

Human Rights Watch says at least 100 civilians in Burkina Faso were killed by government forces near the town of Solenzo in the western Boucle du Mouhoun region in an attack in March.

Hopefully US claims to have brokered a ceasefire are accurate and said ceasefire does hold. More than happy to eat my words if the US did play a role in defusing this major crisis

The conflict between India and Pakistan at the moment is unprecedented since both unveiled their nuclear arsenals. We are facing the realistic possibility of total war between two nuclear armed powers. And the US declares it has nothing to do with them. Yet more irresponsibility from Washington.

Eritrea has unleashed their "independent media" in an attempt to encourage conflict between Mekelle and Addis Ababa. Won't be hard to do with both viewing another war as inevitable anyway. Eritrea sees its opportunity to remake Ethiopia and the larger Horn.

The appointment of Fisseha Kidanu as the head of the TDF confirms TPLF-Debretsion control over the military and apparatus of state in the post-Reda Tigray. It remains to be seen what the TPLF will do with this reversal of their regional fortunes.

Hard to argue with reports in Somalian media that the Turkish-Somalian security and energy agreement signed in March 2024 made Somalia little more than a protectorate of Turkey. Truly brazen and exploitative neocolonialism by Ankara.

India blames Pakistan for a deadly attack in Kashmir and suspends a key water treaty Officials said 24 of the people killed were Indian tourists, one was from Nepal and one was a local tourist guide. At least 17 others were injured.

The Pahalgam terror attack by Pakistan backed militants and now India's choice to suspend the Indus Water Treaty have raised the stakes extremely high for both India and Pakistan. No room for either to de-escalate.

apnews.com/article/kash...

Ethiopia Parliament approves controversial media law amendment - Addis Standard Ethiopia Parliament approves controversial media law amendment Addis Standard News -

The last lingering legacy of Abiy's initial liberalisation reforms in 2018 is now undone with journalists now more regulated than they were under the EPRDF and arrested just as often. Abiy has reestablished or expanded EPRDF authoritarian measures across the board.

addisstandard.com/ethiopia-par...