Alex Francis

"Correlation is still not causation," I intone wearily, hoping some people eventually realize what that means...

(Reasonable sample size, validated instrument, dosage dependent trend line: still not evidence of anything causative)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1N1kt

In the last 70 years, federal jobs fell from 4.5% of all employment to below 2%.

Civil servants aren't what's driving government debt, and firing them won't address it.

I’m not trying to give @pbs.org ideas for raising money—but I am. I would buy women’s fit T-shirts of all my favorite childhood shows. Reading rainbow, 321 contact, square one, zoobiliee zoo. I feel like two generations will run to donate even more money for shirts with Levar Burton on them…

Today, families are often asked to come up with thousands of dollars for bail with little notice. That’s in a country where over a third of adults would not be able to cover an unexpected expense over $400. Bail bond agents profit from this imbalance and lobby hard to protect it. This helps preserve a system where most of the people in local jails haven’t been convicted of a crime. Research suggests that even 72 hours in jail can increase the chance of future rearrest. Jail disrupts the very things that keep people stable. A few days behind bars can mean losing a job or a driver’s license, falling behind on rent or being expelled from school. This instability creates extraordinary challenges for people when they are released, increasing their chances of being swept back into the system for things like low-level charges. Worse still, jail makes it difficult to mount a defense because it cuts people off from legal support. Every minute, people are pulled into this system.

Bail reform increases safety, pretrial incarceration DECREASES public safety

Good op-ed in @nytimes.com from my friend David Gaspar (and Jeremy Cherson) @bailproject.org

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/o...

I hate that even mildly appreciating how clever his PR team has been recently suddenly means I’m supposed to want to vote for him in … 3 years?

YOU DON'T SAY

Screen shot of part of a regular, weekly announcement of funding opportunities from NIH. Under the heading "Funding Opportunities" there is a single, bulleted line saying "None". I've highlighted this single word which seems ominously direct.

This is ... not a good sign.

MIT report: 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing There’s a stark difference in success rates between companies that purchase AI tools from vendors and those that build them internally.

MIT’s NANDA initiative found that 95% of generative AI deployments fail after interviewing 150 execs, surveying 350 workers, and analyzing 300 projects. The real “productivity gains” seem to come from layoffs and squeezing more work from fewer people not AI.

Recently our daughter asked what she should do with some leftovers and both my wife and I said simultaneously “put that in the fridge until it molds and then throw it out.” It’s not good, but it’s true.

My PhD student Yue Li is looking for L1 speakers of Chinese and Spanish for her online English experiment! Please see below for details!

Kim Davis going from "my religious beliefs demand that I don't facilitate a same-sex marriages" to "my religious beliefs demand that there are NO same-sex marriages anywhere" *should* make Democrats realize there is no "sincere" compromise with bigots on trans issues.

DC statehood is now an imperative. No more dicking around. Next Dem majority, get it done immediately.

I think this is a really under-appreciated distinction. I feel like there are many things I enjoy in a way that would likely be ruined by becoming a scholar of them. Not that others shouldn’t study those things. But I definitely am better off not doing so.

“You did say ‘No chocolate’, right?”

I’m often frustrated by technical terms with no intrinsic meaning (e.g., Type I vs Type II error) but now that increasing public awareness of the “Big 5” personality traits means more interpretations of “high extraversion” as “is an extrovert” etc., I kinda wish they were just called Traits 1-5.

Over those thirty years, topmost university leaders - once preeminent scientists and scholars - have gradually been replaced by political appointees and corporate fanboys.

Inconceivable! There must be some trick to it! Some GenZ lingo or social media strategy that we just haven’t figured out yet!

“It’s not about ideology, it’s about looking like you have an ideology.” If only the Dems realized it’s easier to look sincere if in fact you are sincere.

I’m for it! I already have a bunch of people in my phone as “[first name] Neighbor” and also some as “[first name] Business” (“Cody Plumber”, “Tracy HVAC”, etc.)

A good thread on the spaciousness of arguments against transwomen competing against ciswomen in sport.

Luke O‘Neil is one of my favorite writers - as much poet as storyteller, and somehow rich in bleakness. He gets more humanity into characters in a single page than many authors do in an entire novel. I loved his collection „A Creature Wanting Form“ and I’m looking forward to this one.

Back in the day, Twitter used to be really good if I set up a thread to connect freelancers with clients. Let's see if Bluesky can do it.

Clients: if you're looking for freelancers/contractors, get in the comments

Freelancers/contractors: get in comments

Everyone else: boosts appreciated

Decided it was go big or go home so starting at 7pm tonight all my original hand painted art will be 60% off the listed price!!
You read that right SIXTY PERCENT! This is my biggest discount ever! Don't miss out!! KateAveryArt.com to shop!!

This is getting … recursive? Inceptive?

Oops. The antecedent of “them” is not supposed to be “entomologists” here. I’m not trying to photograph entomologists, but rather insects (and flowers, and other little things). In case clarification was needed.

Red milkweed beetle (Tetraopes tetraophthalmus) perched on the tip of a milkweed leaf. There is a leaf in the foreground that has a crescent bitten out of it. The beetle does not look ashamed of its gluttony.

Blue dragonfly or damsel fly, possibly an Azure Bluet (Enallagma aspersum) just perching on large blade of grass. Blurry yellow flowers are in the background.

There was a time when I thought I might grow up to be an entomologist. Now I’m just trying to learn how to photograph them.

I’d like to see something like this done will some cost/benefit to the respondents. Maybe there’d still be a bunch of marks in Africa and east Asia but I’d bet there’d be none in the oceans.

Take my course at the LSA summer institute this summer! (I actually have no idea how many people are going to register.)

That's not what we should be hearing. There is virtually no low-quality research that gets discussed at funding panels, or gets anywhere near being funded. The problem is that not enough high-quality research is funded.