Tobias Gehrke

The new age of weaponisation lays bare Europe's weaknesses Does the EU have what it takes to survive in the age of weaponisation? Recent events have cast light on the crucial question. #EuropeNews

Tariffs, markets, currencies, minerals, energy, migrants. States are tightening chokeholds at the stroke of a pen, inflicting pain and sowing chaos.

Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation?

My long read is out this morning.

Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…

What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇
ecfr.eu/publication/...

Do you mean negotiation tactic with the Americans? or within the EU political economy?

Watching China in Europe—September 2025

Via Noah's excellent newsletter:

www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...

Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal

I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄

“Both the Chinese and Americans are taking economic hostages right across the board, and then they try to leverage those hostages in negotiations,” said @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, a specialist in geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered Top trade officials break ranks to admit the bloc does not have structures to move as the US and China do in the economic security space.

EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered

My report on whether the EU's upcoming "economic security doctrine" risks bringing a knife to a gun fight

www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

Trump's new tariff threat suggests the EU-US trade war isn't over yet Brussels hoped the EU-US deal would finally put an end to the trade war. But Donald Trump's new tariff threat suggests the story is far from over. #EuropeNews

Donald Trump's latest tariff threat comes with a message impossible to ignore: the EU-US trade war isn't over yet.

It is just evolving.

My analysis.

Joint Statement on a United States-European Union framework on an agreement on reciprocal, fair and balanced trade The United States and the European Union are pleased to announce that they have agreed on a Framework on an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade ('Framework Agreement').

NEW: EU and US publish joint statement on trade deal.

Language relating to China in this short thread:

policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...

EU's pledge for $250 billion of US energy imports is delusional There are strong echoes of Donald Trump's failed trade deal with China from his first term as U.S. president in the framework agreement reached with the European Union.

The apparent commitment by the EU to buy $250 billion a year of U.S. #energy is delusional and has zero chance of being realised. It would mean the EU buying virtually all of its #crude oil, #LNG and met #coal from the U.S., and the U.S. can't even supply the volumes. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relations it has ways of retaliating…

As Europe seriously contemplates retaliation against US tariffs as a way of striking a better bargain, I’m reposting @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social excellent overview of Europe’s economic arsenal. The bloc has more leverage than commonly assumed, tho Japan folding won’t help.

ecfr.eu/publication/...

Trump Embraces State Capitalism The level of U.S. government economic intervention under Trump 2.0 is off the charts.

How do you pronounce "dirigisme" in Republican?

@kfj-fp.bsky.social and @christinalu.bsky.social on the GOP's state capitalist turn, w/ @sarahbauerled.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and me.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/16/t...

Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke to unpack the escalating EU-US trade war and Europe’s next moves…

🚨Emergency Podcast Episode🎙️
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Senior Policy Fellow @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social to discuss the collapse of an EU-US trade deal.
Listen, share and subscribe🔗

Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke to unpack the escalating EU-US trade war and Europe’s next moves…

More in our emergency podcast for @ecfr.eu

ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

4) The only move left is political. Von der Leyen, Meloni, Merz, Tusk. Some or all of them need to meet Trump directly. If that fails, there’s nothing left to negotiate, and the EU should retaliate right away.

3) The big question now: what’s the plan for the next two weeks? Technical talks look boxed in. Trump likely tanked the draft deal not over details, but optics. So sending Sefcovic back to DC seems pointless.

2) Still no clear message on the Anti-Coercion Instrument. Even without triggering it now, EU capitals could have at least explicitly given it political backing if talks collapse. That would have sent a strong signal (especially to markets, which so far don’t seem to care).

Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke to unpack the escalating EU-US trade war and Europe’s next moves…

Takeaways from our podcast recording on Europe's latest response to Washington’s tariff threats:

1) The EU is closing in on a second retaliation package worth €72 billion on top of the €21 billion already agreed. Not yet formally adopted, but it’s coming.

...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

i think the 72 is what is left of the 95.
so 93 in total

He now even apologized for his earlier phrase. wow. someone must have been upset

Funny how Rasmussen in the presser afterwards just completely flip-flopped on this statement, saying he does not believe in 'escalate to deescalate'. huh?

Can confirm that this has been read by pretty much every official involved in working out what to do. Also on the US side.

Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relations it has ways of retaliating…

Faced with Trump's 30% tariff, the EU urgently needs a comprehensive map of its retaliatory options; ranging across goods, services, IP, digital, finance & people-to-people measures (including their cost to Europe).

Fortunately, we @ecfr.eu have already published that map:

ecfr.eu/publication/...

What went wrong in Europe’s trade gamble with Trump The EU’s burgeoning deal with the Trump administration seems to escape the harshest US tariff threats. But there is a sense that the bloc has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards.

The EU’s burgeoning deal with the Trump administration seems to escape the harshest US tariff threats. But there is a sense that the bloc has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social in his latest policy alert for ECFR🔗https://buff.ly/B3xP36y

What went wrong in Europe’s trade gamble with Trump The EU’s burgeoning deal with the Trump administration seems to escape the harshest US tariff threats. But there is a sense that the bloc has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards.

@ecfr.eu @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social

ecfr.eu/article/what...

The most important lesson from this is that Europe needs to rethink what economic security really means. De-risking is only part of the answer. The next task is to map Europe’s leverage and prepare to use it, offensively and transactionally if needed.

Third, while Washington and Beijing take economic hostages and barter them for power, Europe is reciting the rulebook and approaching this as a classic trade negotiation. The strategic mindset gap has rarely been so stark.

Second, Europe talked a lot about ‘negotiating from a position of strength’ while refusing to actually flex any muscle. Escalate-to-deescalate should have been the strategy of choice.

First, the EU had no real game plan. Red lines were set (eg. rejecting a UK-style deal) only to likely agree to an even worse deal weeks later.

What went wrong in Europe’s trade gamble with Trump The EU’s burgeoning deal with the Trump administration seems to escape the harshest US tariff threats. But there is a sense that the bloc has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards.

Brussels 🇪🇺 and Washington 🇺🇸 are reportedly closing in on a trade “deal” which would let Europe escape from Trump's harshest tariffs. But few will be popping champagne. There is a strong sense that the EU has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards.

What went wrong?

ecfr.eu/article/what...