Abbas Keshvani

An entrenched deficit

The US federal government ran a deficit of $1.8 trillion (6.4% of GDP) in 2024. This is expected to increase to 6.7% of GDP in 2025. Some notable developments in the federal government's expenditure: Interest payments have grown to a hefty $890b per year, more than three…

TWD: An FX whodunnit

The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) soared as much as 8% this month. This would be a colossal move for any currency, but especially for TWD, which usually moves less than 0.5% daily. Folks have been scrambling to figure out who was responsible for this spectacular rally, from exporters…

She’s on the low fodmap diet

$15.3b seems low for net Hollywood exports

The most important model in the world

My world, anyway. Bonds issued by the US government, known as US Treasuries, sit at the center of the world's financial constellation. What happens to Treasuries ripples through to every other market: bonds of other countries, stocks, FX, and crypto. Sure the…

Trump’s tariffs originate in the trade deficit Trump's tariffs have captivated the current news cycle and bear major ramifications for the cost of goods, global supply chains, and America's influence in the world. The goal of his policy is to narrow America's trade deficit, which he calls a "national emergency". A gaping goods deficit. America experienced its first modern goods deficit in 1971, a product of the postwar industrial revival in Europe and Japan.

Trump’s tariffs originate in the trade deficit

Trump's tariffs have captivated the current news cycle and bear major ramifications for the cost of goods, global supply chains, and America's influence in the world. The goal of his policy is to narrow America's trade deficit, which he calls a…

Python-powered analysis of market trends

Every month has a different market flavor, from Chinese growth to easing of Federal Reserve policy. To illustrate this, I conducted natural language processing on daily market commentary. The result is a recap, for the last two years, of the various themes…