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Giles Wilkes

@gilesyb.bsky.social

Former politico, comment writer, spread betting dealer, editor, now think tanker, consultant, former baker of overly dense loaves.

18,891 Followers  |  1,232 Following  |  4,185 Posts  |  Joined: 28.10.2023  |  2.3592

Latest posts by gilesyb.bsky.social on Bluesky

fetch me a map

08.10.2025 13:58 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If I were the leader of the opposition a year after an election, facing an unpopular government, I would simply focus my energy on criticising the current government's policy record rather than constantly bemoaning the last fifteen years of policymaking, in which I was intimately involved.

08.10.2025 12:53 β€” πŸ‘ 143    πŸ” 28    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

not going to stop laughing all day

08.10.2025 13:35 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Archive photograph after the landing. It’s not clear which are the Habsburgs.

08.10.2025 13:14 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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I mean

08.10.2025 12:42 β€” πŸ‘ 56    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 6

tbf I remember the meeting. We were all sat down preparing a plan for three nukes. There were maps and everything; someone had just asked where Angelsey was. Then a voice piped up, "hold it a mo, what is a woman?"

Cue pandemonium. When we had got through it, everyone had forgotten the nukes.

08.10.2025 13:30 β€” πŸ‘ 31    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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Thank the Tories for keeping Robert Jenrick out of high office Shadow justice secretary’s comment about not seeing a β€˜white face’ shows he does not understand integration

"Jenrick says that he is not talking about β€œskin colour”. But he clearly is, because he cannot tell just by looking at people during a 90-minute stay somewhere whether or not they speak English, if they participate in the labour market, and so on"
www.ft.com/content/f588...

08.10.2025 11:12 β€” πŸ‘ 32    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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Leader of the Opposition just after your party has been immolated at the polls, and with the country in a terrible state, is the worst job in politics. Every attack can be turned into an admission of culpability and failure. Like these:

08.10.2025 11:00 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

I would just rewrite it to target a level of NGDP growth.

08.10.2025 10:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Bravo

08.10.2025 10:36 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

First: they can rewrite the letter. The letter governs the Bank's behaviour.

Second: as I said, I'm assuming no such tradeoff exists, but if it did, then sure, they should do what they think is right

08.10.2025 10:34 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I know this is uncomfortable to admit, but there is a small area in England's second city where people are just not integrated with the rest of society. Many of them hold views that arguably go against British values.

Yes, we need to talk about the Tory conference in Manchester.

07.10.2025 21:10 β€” πŸ‘ 1581    πŸ” 289    πŸ’¬ 48    πŸ“Œ 22

I just don't accept the premise, Jim. There's no conflict between what the Bank is doing and what the government needs for growth. If there was, then there would be a fascinating political-economic conversation to be had

08.10.2025 09:50 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The Conservatives' assault on what they see as worthless degrees sounds like an excellent answer to the question, if that question is "how can we possibly alienate young aspiring voters even more?"

08.10.2025 09:11 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0

Needed that regular reminder that a sprint is always a good idea

08.10.2025 06:53 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

We'll try to send some over.

I find it useful to listen to podcasts of happier times from The Rest is History, such as episodes on the outbreak of the First World War, or the catastrophe year 1974

08.10.2025 06:52 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This is an interesting read from @gilesyb.bsky.social with some interesting data and some thoughts from Milton Friedman. #EconSky

08.10.2025 06:27 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This is a reason to re-up my piece from yesterday

bsky.app/profile/gile...

Because there's no call for mad invasions of the Bank's territory

08.10.2025 05:53 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Give Britain a break: its economy is dull, not disastrous While broader growth is subdued, consumers feel optimistic about their own lot

Give Britain a break: its economy is dull, not disastrous - on.ft.com/4nGOKY9

God bless Lex, and I think they're right

08.10.2025 05:50 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1
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Britain needs a β€˜whatever it takes’ moment The Bank of England must acknowledge the priority of reviving investment-led growth and stop quantitative tightening

Hmmmmm. I'm certainly with Adam Tooze on the idea that central banks are ultimately (and should be) tools of the state. But the idea that QT/QE is the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems is one of the great mistruths of our era.

www.ft.com/content/7615...

07.10.2025 08:29 β€” πŸ‘ 56    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 4

"As Molly Ivins said of Pat Buchanan, it probably sounded better in the original German"

07.10.2025 20:53 β€” πŸ‘ 15    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

So much as people will like to think it is a Truss-overreaction, or Bank behaving in some sort of stubborn way, the objective conditions do not support the view.
And I think it is potentially dangerous to suggest so: it encourages people looking for easy answers 3/

07.10.2025 16:05 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

... which is why I was surprised to read that people think the problem is too much kowtowing to the bond traders. In the past 4 years, the nominal size of the economy is bigger by Β£175bn. In real terms, only Β£43bn. This is not an economy constrained by demand ... 2/

07.10.2025 16:05 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Plenty of big economic arguments right now:

- was the pre-Crisis rate of growth sustainable?
- AI! Extraordinary general purpose technology, or "as good as spreadsheets"?
- Are net zero and growth in conflict?

But I don't think there is much debate about our being in a supply side crisis ... 1/

07.10.2025 16:05 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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I sang Jerusalem with Robert Jenrick at school β€” he’s wrong about race The Conservative MP has complained that, visiting Handsworth in Birmingham, he didn’t see β€˜another white face’. You can’t judge whether someone is integrated by skin colour, argues fellow Wulfrunian S...

"Jenrick’s remarks ...are a symptom of a new cult of ethno-nationalism... Suddenly, a great many people β€” including, bizarrely, Suella Braverman β€” are keen on the racist idea that you simply can’t be English and non-white."
www.thetimes.com/life-style/c...

07.10.2025 16:00 β€” πŸ‘ 22    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Is this really a BOE β€œwhatever it takes” moment? There is a striking column in the FT from Adam Tooze, the incredibly prolific Chartbook author , which as I see it boils down to this: prolonged stagnation has thrown the UK into a desperate positi…

I have written a quick response/critique to the very provocative "whatever it takes" column from @adamtooze.bsky.social in today's FT.

freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/10/07/i...

07.10.2025 14:14 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 2
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Why everyone is talking about food inflation Their predictive power on year-ahead core price pressures is worrying central bankers

Brilliant piece from @chrisgiles.ft.com , right down to the question of whether food inflation is driving the rest or vice versa.
www.ft.com/content/de31...

07.10.2025 13:14 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I just saw someone use the abbreviation β€œAI;DR” and I’ll be laughing for a while.

06.10.2025 22:00 β€” πŸ‘ 6350    πŸ” 2101    πŸ’¬ 25    πŸ“Œ 92
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Marginal Gains: how wind is pushing gas out of the power market and… Growth in British renewables cutting electricity prices by up to a quarter.

Bookmark for the next time wind is blamed for higher costs? eciu.net/analysis/rep...

07.10.2025 09:40 β€” πŸ‘ 54    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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OpenAI’s computing deals top $1tn Partners including Nvidia, AMD and Oracle have signed up to Sam Altman’s huge bet on the future of artificial intelligence

The incredible numbers - an actual trillion of investment, via an unquoted start up - and circularities (Nvidia investing in OpenAI and Intel, OpenAi in AMD, billion dollar purchases paid with stock, the cash, where's the cash etc? - are just mind boggling

on.ft.com/4mNOdCh

07.10.2025 05:40 β€” πŸ‘ 23    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 3

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