Giles Wilkes

We are not yet a year into Trump’s second term and already DOGE has been mothballed, MTG has bailed from Congress, the administration tried and failed to present a Russian plan to end the war, and the ‘Secretary of War’ is trying to court-martial a US Senator. Time for a reminder of this I think…

It's wonderful

The 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 fake patriots are the worst of the worst.

Yes, there are spending multipliers etc - and yes, Kuenssberg spouted vacuous talking points.

BUT.

There is a bond market (or more generally a macro) constraint to borrowing, as there was in the 2010s - we just weren't near it then. Dodging the issue/pretending it doesn't exist isn't a policy.

Just wondering if that medium has the reach any more

do you think I have to load up all the old posts? am a bit bothered by that thought

Maybe the S&P 500 will triple? Stephen Miran’s old shop reckons that stocks are ‘not even close’ to a bubble

"It’s always reassuring to be reminded that you can’t lose more than all of your money. And it’s interesting to see this evidential fact turned into a bull case for buying stocks"
www.ft.com/content/a7f1...

the fiscal rules, again? people don't like them. Their better ideas just recreate them

oh, I appear to have started a Substack by accident gileswilkes.substack.com/p/the-fiscal...

what, the fiscal rules, again? The conventional wisdom, at least of the sort of crowd I hang out with, is that there is nothing wrong with the fiscal rules, nor with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that measures polic…

I have taken an hour out to have a look at the CPS's attack on our current fiscal rules.

I am mostly confused about what they want.

freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/11/24/w...

Been worth breaking my holiday from the News Agents for this excellent interview. He's particularly excoriating about debating Budget choices in public

I used to work on SMEs for a development bank and it's canon in the sector that small businesses are mostly financed by friends and family and savings and second mortgages. The main issue is demand at that state. Banks are only useful when you're up and running and profitable.

Not denying there's a problem but maybe two thirds of investment is large companies. The main source for investment is internal funds. And lower investment is only one of the causes of UK productivity weakness. So to leap from bank sme lending to the recent OBR downgrade in productivity is a stretch

C. The article needs to prove it's supply not demand for finance that failed. Can you see it in extra high rates perhaps? But talk to financiers and they don't imply they're inundated with great proposals...

Sorry to be grumpy but UK productivity is a big issue. Not just "SMEs can't get loans" 2/

Lex in depth: Could the banks revive Britain’s economy? If the chancellor can find a way to solve the credit drought that small businesses face, the country’s prospects would get an important boost

"if small businesses cannot borrow, it is hard for them to spend. The resulting low levels of business investment have led to years of sub-par productivity growth"- on.ft.com/44sjWT4

Surprisingly simpleminded from Lex

A. Most business investment is large companies
B. Not dependent on loans... 1/

What big bond investors want from the Budget Gilt market players call on government to cut spending and steer clear of inflationary tax rises

Literally interviewed the bond vigilantes. Amazing

on.ft.com/44sc4Rw

"Another problem is that the government is scared to state the issue so baldly - that better public services require middle-earners to curb their spending."

Chris is on sparkling, provocative form

Don’t trade where you tweet Online conversations about hot meme stocks or cryptocurrencies are the source of some very bad decisions

Nice article on bubbles by @timharford.ft.com and if you're teaching A Level Economics, the 'social influence of others'. #EconSky www.ft.com/content/bd80...

In Washington, everything appears to be for sale And the government has given up on prosecuting corruption

A story so enraging that it's hard to get through. Not good for mental health!
www.economist.com/united-state...
From The Economist

Sign at the US Military Academy at West Point:

If I’m understanding this correctly, X is owned by a white nationalist who pays poor people of color in developing countries to pretend to be working class white Americans to scare other white Americans into being afraid poor people of color from developing countries are going to ruin America?

He's making a lot of sense!

Trump forgets that the war started in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea, about which he did nothing when he assumed power in 2017.

Currently on Times Radio debating the Budget with Kwasi Kwarteng and @ayeshahazarika.bsky.social !

people claiming AI doesn't have a business model, eat your words, again

A Twitter account called Ivanka News tweets an AI image of a young woman wearing Muslim garb. The woman is holding a sign that says "I came here illegally. Should I be deported?" Ivanka News writes: What is your response to this person ?? In the "About this account" tab, it appears the account is based in Nigeria

An account called MAGA scope writes: Who, in your view is the great enemy of the United States? Communism, Islam, Democratic Party, or Satan? The account is based in Nigeria.

An account called MAGA Nadine writes: You go to work and find this. What would you do? The attached pic is an AI image that shows a microwave. The microwave has a sign that says "For religious reasons, this microwave is now making halal food only." The account is based in Morocco.

An account called America First posts an AI image of Tulsi Gabbard. They wrote: How would you rate your trust in Tulsi Gabbard on a scale of 1-10?

Twitter pays people based on engagement (views, retweets, comments, etc). It appears that many MAGA accounts are based abroad and they use AI technology to generate low-effort rage bait.

My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.

You'll be telling me next that private schools have survived VAT?

Don't worry, every day brings new stories of how proposed taxes / regulations / whatever will destroy the entirety of life as we know it...

European leaders responded to the 28-point peace plan and unanimously reaffirmed their support for Ukraine.
Any peace plan must be fair and sustainable — made with Ukraine and for Ukraine.

Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.
#StandWithUkraine🧵

Trust me, the stories on UK immigration policy and the state of European manufacturers competing with the Chinese will dispel that worry

The panic over a male crisis in Britain is overblown But some manly problems are undeniable

And the panic over a male crisis in Britain is overblown
www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Badly need this retreat from miserabilism from The Economist.

Not even going to tease Bagehot for being mildly alarmed by a pair of 27.5kg dumbbells

Britain’s controversial experiment in regulating the internet The effects of a new law have been less dramatic than critics warned

Apparently dire predictions of how the Online Safety Act would impact the UK have proven totally overblown. Who could possibly have...
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
From The Economist