Patrick English

To everyone in my timeline discussing high streets, I've got a report out on Tuesday writing up some surveys that we ran with YouGov in 2022, 2024 and 2025 asking people about how they view their local area... the findings may be of interest in various respects! #staytuned #towns

Join Scarlett Maguire, @jameskanag.bsky.social and myself live with @mattchorley.bsky.social from 5 past 3 for our regular @bbc5live.bsky.social Poll Position segment! Do tune in!

Key takeaways Every week over the course of 2025 YouGov asked the public what news story they had heard most about The 2025 Budget came top, peaking at 64% Seven of the top ten stories were international stories Immigration, Gaza, and Ukraine were consistently cited by small numbers for much of the year, alongside notable peaks in response to events The actions of Donald Trump were consistently brought up as a top story by Britons over the course of the year

The 2025 UK news cycle, in one chart

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Incredible work by Matt Smith at @yougov.co.uk summing up the most heard news stories of 2025! Check out the whole story & breakdown here yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

"Cool" only begins to describe how it feels to see outputs from the AI topic quantifier after I developed it at YouGov last year ♥️

Our @yougov.co.uk data journalism extraordinaire Matt Smith has compiled all news tracker results from 2025 into this stunning graphic

This tells us so much about what 'cuts through', how news cycles evolve, and what grabs attention re: flash moments vs ongoing stories

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

The latest @yougov.co.uk data suggests that the British public are in favour of banning trail hunting by a margin of 50%-29%.

What's more, this crosses urban-rural divides: 50% of people living in rural Britain want trail hunting banned. 35% think it should be legal.

I'll be on Times Radio for a chat with John Pienaar at 4pm to discuss the latest polling on Britain's relationship with the European Union.

Do tune in for one final pre-Christmas appearance from me!

Which *one* news story do Britons say they heard the most about in the last week? (fieldwork 21-22 Dec 2025)

Shooting on Bondi Beach: 26%
Epstein Files: 19%
Immigration: 4%
Trump [general]: 3%
Criticisms of the government: 3%
War in Ukraine: 3%

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

📻🎄Listen out at 3pm today on @bbc5live.bsky.social for the final Poll Position of 2025, with your regular star-studded pollster team of @jameskanag.bsky.social, Scarlett Maguire, and myself kept on track by super host @mattchorley.bsky.social

And yes, of course, there will be a festive joke or two

The British General Election of 2024 The British General Election of 2024 is the definitive account of one of the most consequential elections in recent times.

The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.

How have Britons reacted to the 2025 Budget? | YouGov While the government may have protected themselves by dropping their income tax plans, the public reaction to the Budget has still been negative

Here’s the definitive Budget feedback from the British public: yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

By are margin of 48% - 21%, Brits view the Budget as “unfair”.

Some individual measures poll well, but as a whole Brits think it will make them, and the country, worse off.

Ahead of the budget, @patrick-pme.bsky.social looks at where public opinion lies

Britons think the economy is bad...

Bad: 79%
Neither good/bad: 15%
Good: 4%

...and that the government is managing it badly

Badly: 77%
Well: 14%

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

I would say this…

But this podcast is a must-listen to understand what happened at Conservative Party conference and whether Kemi Badenoch’s stamp duty plan adds up

Properly insightful analysis from ace @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues and @patrick-pme.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk

A group of people recording a podcast

Look out for a #CPC25 Inside Briefing special podcast - the IfG team @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @alexgathomas.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social are joined by guest @patrick-pme.bsky.social.

Landing in your podcast feeds tomorrow. 🎧👀

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Ha, good spot Andy and thanks!

If the answer is “not many” then the membership’s appetite for change over continuity could be diminished.

The bar for bath water removal becomes that little bit higher.

Precisely *who* these remaining members are vs those who have left will be a key driver in which way the membership will lean in the Deputy Leadership contest.

For example: how many of those 135,218 members who voted for Rebecca Long-Bailey in 2020 remain in the party now?

It’s been a bit of a week or so in British politics, right?

Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate.

But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections

Phillipson and Powell seem pretty well set to get to 80 from here, you'd think.

There are still over 250 MPs left to declare. Easily enough for more candidates to make it, theoretically...

You'd think most likely third option is Bell Ribeiro-Addy mustering Labour left support but who knows?

Finally, while the public do prefer to have Keir Starmer over Labour's current top adversary Nigel Farage as their prime minister, back in May they were totally split on whether Rayner would make a better prime minister than the Reform leader.

Brits are not convinced Rayner would make a good prime minister

11% of Brtis told us last month that they thought she would make a 'good' or 'great' PM, but 46% thought she would be 'poor' or 'terrible'

Her net score of -35 compares to -28 for Farage, -32 for Corbyn, and -35 for Badenoch

Rayner's latest favourability numbers in our regular tracking were 21% favourable, 53% unfavourable.

Her net score of -32 was significantly better than Reeves (-47) and Starmer (-44), about the same as Farage (-29) and Badenoch (-31), and slightly better than Corbyn (-35).

Some polling nuggets on Angela Rayner, now that the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned.

First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today.

This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.

Thank you for the share, Laura! And for doing all the excellent research that I got to lean on!

Thank you so much for the share and the kind words, Tim! 🙏

Reform and young people in the context of votes at 16 Anecdotes may claim rising support for the right among the British youth, but is that so?

🚨🔔 NEW, from me!

I’ve taken some time to review the evidence and try to give answers on…

🤔 Are Reform popular with young voters?
🌹 How much ground have Labour with the British youth?
⬇️ Who will benefit most from ‘Votes at 16’, Starmer or Farage?

patrickenglish.substack.com/p/reform-and...

This article is very strong on the potential polling and electoral consequences of lowering the voting age to 16.

Parties of the left are absolutely dominant among young voters. Labour are most popular. We hear a lot about “young people and Reform” but it’s only a really small minority, in reality.

Hi Mark sorry for taking ages to get around to this.

Yes, the Scottish sample would have been about six times what we get in a normal GB poll.

We have actually combined the England and Wales and Scotland model back into one (for now), given we can harmonise census data, now

First @yougov.co.uk‬ MRP since 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as largest party.
(‪@patrick-pme.bsky.social‬)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250626