Patrick English

How have Britons reacted to the 2025 Budget? | YouGov While the government may have protected themselves by dropping their income tax plans, the public reaction to the Budget has still been negative

Here’s the definitive Budget feedback from the British public: yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

By are margin of 48% - 21%, Brits view the Budget as “unfair”.

Some individual measures poll well, but as a whole Brits think it will make them, and the country, worse off.

Ahead of the budget, @patrick-pme.bsky.social looks at where public opinion lies

Britons think the economy is bad...

Bad: 79%
Neither good/bad: 15%
Good: 4%

...and that the government is managing it badly

Badly: 77%
Well: 14%

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

I would say this…

But this podcast is a must-listen to understand what happened at Conservative Party conference and whether Kemi Badenoch’s stamp duty plan adds up

Properly insightful analysis from ace @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues and @patrick-pme.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk

A group of people recording a podcast

Look out for a #CPC25 Inside Briefing special podcast - the IfG team @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @alexgathomas.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social are joined by guest @patrick-pme.bsky.social.

Landing in your podcast feeds tomorrow. 🎧👀

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Ha, good spot Andy and thanks!

If the answer is “not many” then the membership’s appetite for change over continuity could be diminished.

The bar for bath water removal becomes that little bit higher.

Precisely *who* these remaining members are vs those who have left will be a key driver in which way the membership will lean in the Deputy Leadership contest.

For example: how many of those 135,218 members who voted for Rebecca Long-Bailey in 2020 remain in the party now?

It’s been a bit of a week or so in British politics, right?

Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate.

But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections

Phillipson and Powell seem pretty well set to get to 80 from here, you'd think.

There are still over 250 MPs left to declare. Easily enough for more candidates to make it, theoretically...

You'd think most likely third option is Bell Ribeiro-Addy mustering Labour left support but who knows?

Finally, while the public do prefer to have Keir Starmer over Labour's current top adversary Nigel Farage as their prime minister, back in May they were totally split on whether Rayner would make a better prime minister than the Reform leader.

Brits are not convinced Rayner would make a good prime minister

11% of Brtis told us last month that they thought she would make a 'good' or 'great' PM, but 46% thought she would be 'poor' or 'terrible'

Her net score of -35 compares to -28 for Farage, -32 for Corbyn, and -35 for Badenoch

Rayner's latest favourability numbers in our regular tracking were 21% favourable, 53% unfavourable.

Her net score of -32 was significantly better than Reeves (-47) and Starmer (-44), about the same as Farage (-29) and Badenoch (-31), and slightly better than Corbyn (-35).

Some polling nuggets on Angela Rayner, now that the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned.

First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today.

This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.

Thank you for the share, Laura! And for doing all the excellent research that I got to lean on!

Thank you so much for the share and the kind words, Tim! 🙏

Reform and young people in the context of votes at 16 Anecdotes may claim rising support for the right among the British youth, but is that so?

🚨🔔 NEW, from me!

I’ve taken some time to review the evidence and try to give answers on…

🤔 Are Reform popular with young voters?
🌹 How much ground have Labour with the British youth?
⬇️ Who will benefit most from ‘Votes at 16’, Starmer or Farage?

patrickenglish.substack.com/p/reform-and...

This article is very strong on the potential polling and electoral consequences of lowering the voting age to 16.

Parties of the left are absolutely dominant among young voters. Labour are most popular. We hear a lot about “young people and Reform” but it’s only a really small minority, in reality.

Hi Mark sorry for taking ages to get around to this.

Yes, the Scottish sample would have been about six times what we get in a normal GB poll.

We have actually combined the England and Wales and Scotland model back into one (for now), given we can harmonise census data, now

First @yougov.co.uk‬ MRP since 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as largest party.
(‪@patrick-pme.bsky.social‬)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250626

🚨NEW 🚨 @YouGov have released our first MRP since #GE2024

If an election were being held right now...

➡️ Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament
🌹Labour would be reduced to 176 seats
🌳Tories would become 4th party
⏫ Gains for Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and Greens

Political volatility has been taking us by surprise for a while now. Here’s little exercise to illustrate. Rewind two years and take a look at where the polls were, what people expected, and what they failed to anticipate. You have to go back a while before politics is predictable even 2 yrs out 1/

Winter fuel payments are set to be restored to all pensioners with an income of £35,000 or less

Our poll found a plurality of Britons wanted to see more pensioners be eligible for WFPs (44%) rather than a return to all pensioners getting it (33%)

yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...

What is happening between Musk and Trump is of course dominating the headlines.

But the ongoing struggles that Reform are having keeping their own band together is worth tracking.

Reform Chair Zia Yusuf quit today in the third acrimonious party ‘falling out’ in 8 months.

Yes: Reform are leading the polls

Yes: Farage is popular among many voters

Yes: Reform did very well in the local elections

Also yes: Farage is a hugely divisive figure, and will unite voter coalitions *against* him, as well as for

He does not win a single @yougov.co.uk Best PM matchup 👇

Getting to know 'Reform curious Labour voters' exploring the attitudes, demography and values of Reform curious Labour voters and the coalitional dilemmas they lose

NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform?

How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?

Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇

Hard to express just how close the Liberals came to winning a majority.

This *one vote win* on the recount flips another seat into their column.

Liberals now *two seats* short of a majority.

They could get as close as *one seat* if the recount in Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore turns it their way.

This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015.

This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.

Thank you, Mark!

Ha ha! Thank you, Andy!