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JLRay

@jlray.bsky.social

Texas. Senior director of polling at YouGov. Adviser to Young Men Research Initiative. johnlray.github.io

4,382 Followers  |  1,782 Following  |  4,738 Posts  |  Joined: 26.07.2023  |  2.4528

Latest posts by jlray.bsky.social on Bluesky

Great illustration of

1) A lot of professional media is based in New York (see also: the most important thing about Gaza is protests at Columbia)

and

2) Republican voters are the only ones who matter (see also: Midwest diner safaris)

The concern overwhelmingly goes in one direction, not both.

02.11.2025 18:35 β€” πŸ‘ 163    πŸ” 33    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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The analysis you've been waiting for: "Do you remember who was actually president when that happened?" Turns out the answer is often...no.

1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.

HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!

yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...

31.10.2025 19:27 β€” πŸ‘ 83    πŸ” 39    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 5
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Put together a quick voter guide for Austinites on our local and statewide measures based on the consensus endorsements of local papers and Democratic groups. Lets protect Austin's budget from state and federal attacks. No free land for ICE.

bluevoterguide.org/view-ballot?...

01.11.2025 12:20 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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The analysis you've been waiting for: "Do you remember who was actually president when that happened?" Turns out the answer is often...no.

1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.

HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!

yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...

31.10.2025 19:27 β€” πŸ‘ 83    πŸ” 39    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 5

I've seen lots of speculation out there that purveyors of online gambling deliberately target neurodivergent people and people with mental health struggles, and this data is certainly suggestive evidence in that regard.

31.10.2025 14:51 β€” πŸ‘ 24    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Really fascinating stuff in this YG analysis of online gamblers. Working full time but low-income, significantly more likely to report poor mental health, anxiety, and depression, "deeply cynical about marriage" but "hopeless romantics." "Over-indexes on ADHD."

platform.yougov.com/resources

31.10.2025 14:49 β€” πŸ‘ 70    πŸ” 26    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 4

Going to war while we’re not paying our military is quite the choice.

31.10.2025 13:48 β€” πŸ‘ 190    πŸ” 75    πŸ’¬ 17    πŸ“Œ 1
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Interesting data from a YouGov report on character choices in videogames. Those who say women characters in a game make them less interested in that game are pretty clearly a vocal minority. Most gamers are fine-to-positive on having the option.

yougov.com/en-us/articl...

31.10.2025 12:17 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Interesting data from a YouGov report on character choices in videogames. Those who say women characters in a game make them less interested in that game are pretty clearly a vocal minority. Most gamers are fine-to-positive on having the option.

yougov.com/en-us/articl...

31.10.2025 12:17 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Bring back shame. People who talk about their own family this way are shameful. Any normal person is morally better than every conservative politician.

31.10.2025 05:41 β€” πŸ‘ 38    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

just an unfathomably bleak, empty life on display here

31.10.2025 04:27 β€” πŸ‘ 213    πŸ” 24    πŸ’¬ 13    πŸ“Œ 1

jesus

31.10.2025 02:09 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Listening to the latest @profgalloway.com @kyla.bsky.social interview it sounds like the CS crash is the casino economy embodied - in a very unequal society where massive risk takers (or those masquerading as such) are treated like heroes, risky behavior feels more appealing

pca.st/episode/09a9...

30.10.2025 20:31 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Most Americans see unlimited election spending as a threat to democracy: poll - OpenSecrets News The vast majority of Americans β€” no matter their partisan identification β€” say unlimited political spending weakens democracy and wealthy…

US voters overwhelmingly agree the Republican courts have gone too far in legalizing corruption in our campaign finance system. When presented with them, most voters say the arguments made in the Citizens United ruling are wrong.

www.opensecrets.org/news/2025/10...

30.10.2025 15:11 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Anyway, as a Democrat I think we should be aggressively expanding the Democratic base and because of this I think it is important to note when you've found a messaging hook that lands with a considerable majority of Independents.

bsky.app/profile/sfcp...

30.10.2025 13:40 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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One of the consequences of living in a society that's fueled by extreme economic inequality and endless algorithmic grifting is that very bad, speculative bets seem more appealing when you no longer believe your legitimate career options won't help you get ahead.

open.substack.com/pub/youngmen...

27.10.2025 22:04 β€” πŸ‘ 21    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Antisemitism is Brewing Online The Young Republicans’ group chat story has followed the familiar arc of Trump-era scandals: public uproar, partisan finger-pointing, and eventual burial under the next bombshell story.

Nick Fuentes isn't an outcast anymore. Antisemitism is rampant online, with no signs of slowing down.

substack.com/@youngmenres...

29.10.2025 16:21 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
A multiple line chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Views of Donald Trump among U.S. adult citizens, and among white, Black, and Hispanic Americans."

The chart has the sub-headline: "Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people? [Donald Trump] (% with a very or somewhat favorable opinion minus the % with a very or somewhat unfavorable opinion)."

The chart has the note: "Note: Responses of "don't know" are not shown."

A multiple line chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Views of Donald Trump among U.S. adult citizens, and among white, Black, and Hispanic Americans." The chart has the sub-headline: "Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people? [Donald Trump] (% with a very or somewhat favorable opinion minus the % with a very or somewhat unfavorable opinion)." The chart has the note: "Note: Responses of "don't know" are not shown."

NEW Economist/YouGov
Net favorability of Donald Trump [at the start of his second term | now] among...
White Americans +13 | -3
Hispanic Americans -12 | -34
Black Americans -31 | -70
today.yougov.com/politics/art...

28.10.2025 15:21 β€” πŸ‘ 347    πŸ” 102    πŸ’¬ 20    πŸ“Œ 29
DEMOCRATIC PARTY

NOV 4, 2025 VOTER GUIDE CITY OF AUSTIN

Proposition Q: Vote YES to support essential social services, housing, and school-based programs

TEXAS CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

βœ“ Prop 1: Creation of a fund to support Texas State Technical College System

X Prop 2: Prohibits a tax on capital gains (Removing the option to working families)

X Prop 3: Denies bail to those accused of a felony under certain circumstances (Limiting due process)

βœ“ Prop 4: Shifting Sales tax revenue to water infrastructure

X Prop 5: Property tax exemption for animal feed, potentially losing $44 million in State revenue

X Prop 6: Prohibition on Securities Taxes (Removing options to create a more equitable tax system)

βœ“ Prop 7: Property tax exemption for surviving spouse of a veteran who spouse of a vel died of a service-injury

X Prop 8: Prohibition on an Estate Tax (Removing options to create a more equitable tax system)

X Prop 9: Increases business property tax exemption to property tax exemption $125,000 (Shifting tax burden to homeowners and renters)

βœ“ Prop 10: Property tax exemption for property that is destroyed in a fire

βœ“ Prop 11: Increase in the ISD property tax exemption for elderly

X Prop 12: On the State Commission on Judicial Conduct (Judges are best equipped to assess their peers)

βœ“ Prop 13: Increasing the School District Property Tax Exemption from $100,000 to $140,000

βœ“ Prop 14: Establish the Dementia Prevention & Research Institute of Texas

X Prop 15: Affirm parents as the Affirm primary decision makers for their children (Potentially weakening rights or creating new obligations due to vague language)

X Prop 16: A voter must be a U.S. a citizen (Duplicates existing laws that already prohibit non-citizens from voting)

X Prop 17: Property tax exemption from property  used to build the border wall (Incentivizing its construction)

DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOV 4, 2025 VOTER GUIDE CITY OF AUSTIN Proposition Q: Vote YES to support essential social services, housing, and school-based programs TEXAS CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS βœ“ Prop 1: Creation of a fund to support Texas State Technical College System X Prop 2: Prohibits a tax on capital gains (Removing the option to working families) X Prop 3: Denies bail to those accused of a felony under certain circumstances (Limiting due process) βœ“ Prop 4: Shifting Sales tax revenue to water infrastructure X Prop 5: Property tax exemption for animal feed, potentially losing $44 million in State revenue X Prop 6: Prohibition on Securities Taxes (Removing options to create a more equitable tax system) βœ“ Prop 7: Property tax exemption for surviving spouse of a veteran who spouse of a vel died of a service-injury X Prop 8: Prohibition on an Estate Tax (Removing options to create a more equitable tax system) X Prop 9: Increases business property tax exemption to property tax exemption $125,000 (Shifting tax burden to homeowners and renters) βœ“ Prop 10: Property tax exemption for property that is destroyed in a fire βœ“ Prop 11: Increase in the ISD property tax exemption for elderly X Prop 12: On the State Commission on Judicial Conduct (Judges are best equipped to assess their peers) βœ“ Prop 13: Increasing the School District Property Tax Exemption from $100,000 to $140,000 βœ“ Prop 14: Establish the Dementia Prevention & Research Institute of Texas X Prop 15: Affirm parents as the Affirm primary decision makers for their children (Potentially weakening rights or creating new obligations due to vague language) X Prop 16: A voter must be a U.S. a citizen (Duplicates existing laws that already prohibit non-citizens from voting) X Prop 17: Property tax exemption from property used to build the border wall (Incentivizing its construction)

I'm not sure who needs to hear this, but this was helpful.

30.10.2025 01:51 β€” πŸ‘ 14    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Like I was quite surprised to see how many young people are basically just using YouTube for channel surfing

29.10.2025 14:51 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Antisemitism is Brewing Online The Young Republicans’ group chat story has followed the familiar arc of Trump-era scandals: public uproar, partisan finger-pointing, and eventual burial under the next bombshell story.

The latest from YMRI: Antisemitism runs deep through the conservative project. As normal young men continue to become disillusioned with Trump, expect hardcore hangers-on to grasp onto bigotry and conspiracy theories to justify their choices.

youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/antisemiti...

29.10.2025 16:13 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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We asked young guys an open ended "so what do you use youtube for?" and the most common answers were basically like lofi beats, rappers that the olds have never heard of, and "i just leave it on all day idk i think that's what radio used to be right"

open.substack.com/pub/youngmen...

29.10.2025 14:46 β€” πŸ‘ 49    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
Antisemitism is Brewing Online The Young Republicans’ group chat story has followed the familiar arc of Trump-era scandals: public uproar, partisan finger-pointing, and eventual burial under the next bombshell story.

The latest from YMRI: Antisemitism runs deep through the conservative project. As normal young men continue to become disillusioned with Trump, expect hardcore hangers-on to grasp onto bigotry and conspiracy theories to justify their choices.

youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/antisemiti...

29.10.2025 16:13 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

Check this out: After the shutdown, Trump’s approval fell.

The shutdown was and is bad in many ways. But this shows some important upsides.

This seems to validate the β€œpick big fights” theory of fighting authoritarianism.

28.10.2025 21:03 β€” πŸ‘ 394    πŸ” 87    πŸ’¬ 11    πŸ“Œ 1
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Like I was quite surprised to see how many young people are basically just using YouTube for channel surfing

29.10.2025 14:51 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

We asked young guys an open ended "so what do you use youtube for?" and the most common answers were basically like lofi beats, rappers that the olds have never heard of, and "i just leave it on all day idk i think that's what radio used to be right"

open.substack.com/pub/youngmen...

29.10.2025 14:46 β€” πŸ‘ 49    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1

Delighted that our team at YouGov could provide research for this project. Fighting corruption at the state level is of paramount importance at the present moment. Voters generally agree the arguments made in the Citizens United ruling are wrong.

29.10.2025 00:56 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The latest from YMRI: "Its 2008 for Gamers"

Almost overnight, players of the popular online shooter Counterstrike lost billions of dollars. What happened, why, and how does so much money keep going into peculiar economies like these?

youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/its-2008-f...

27.10.2025 13:14 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 2
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Words Democrats use to describe recent protests: "Peaceful," "energetic," "serious," "joyful."

Only about half of Republicans think recent protests were "violent." Not bad considering what they're being told day and night by their co-partisans.

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Pr...

28.10.2025 21:06 β€” πŸ‘ 70    πŸ” 17    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image 28.10.2025 21:04 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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