E.J. Fagan

The Week Ahead August 10, 2025

Tomorrow, Newsom v. Trump goes to trial in a California court with Trump’s power to deploy National Guard troops nationwide despite the Posse Comitatus Act at issue. open.substack.com/pub/joycevan...

The justification here is that one person got beat up by some teenagers. Oh, and Jeffrey Epstein isn't going away.

Data come in many different formats and are used in many different ways, but in many cases, a checklist like this (along with good data documentation) can help you verify if a dataset is in a usable format for most general purposes.
osf.io/t8upr

Trump has been president for less than 5 years – about 2% of the history of this country. He's responsible for 22% of the national debt. The budget issue is a Republican long con that has worked spectacularly with people who don't believe in facts.

Corruption at its finest.

TikTok will be next.

They've done a good job of preserving their old reports online. A ton of their stuff from the 1980s at least like a real expert wrote it.

I can tell the decade of a Heritage report based on how rigorous it is.

Heritage originally sold itself as a wonky policy shop for conservative ideas, but these days it’s more of an affirmative action program for mediocre white guys.

Put “Heritage” on your resume these days and you might as well affix the asterisk we’re all seeing

What's going on?

It seems likely that the deaths are caused by Florida allowing a high speed train to run through busy residential areas at full speed. To make matters worse, many areas are designated quiet, so the trains don't sound their horns when approaching crossings.

Brightline death toll surpasses 180, but safeguards are still lacking Brightline trains have killed 182 people, significantly more than publicly known, an investigation by the Miami Herald and WLRN has found.

www.miamiherald.com/news/local/a...

The
@miamiherald.com
reporting on the "Killer Train" - Florida's new Brightline high speed train, in incredible.

The train has killed 182 people since 2017. If that sounds like a lot, it's because it is by far the deadliest train in the US.

A massive regulatory failure on the part of
Florida.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

Engagement, defined by how important someone reports politics being to their personal identity, predicts most of the 2020-2024 change in vote share. High-engagement voters shifted to Harris by 3%. Somewhat/Not engaged voters shifted to Trump by 3% and 4%. 2020 non-voters by 12% (!).

Weighting by recalled past vote significantly increased the accuracy of swing state presidential polling in 2024, less so for recalled turnout.

Much more error in presidential than downballot (Trump-only undervotes?).

via @gelliottmorris.com's newsletter.

globalstrategygroup.com/wp-content/u...

I hope he made his way out to Lockhart.

A man with a spectacular 1970s mullet, wearing big wellies and a v-neck jumper over a T-shirt, looks at camera as he stands on a boat which is itself standing on the muddy bottom of an empty canal. He is holding up an enormous wooden plug on a long chunky chain

Today is the 47th anniversary of this clearly unimprovable photo, from a story so absurd that it shouldn’t be true, but is: the day a team of workers from British Waterways pulled the plug out of the Chesterfield Canal, and all the water emptied out

My question for Justice Sotomayor on her claim that you cannot retroactively take something that you’ve earned away by constitutional amendment is whether she thinks the thirteenth amendment had the power to end slavery.

I was one of the columnists who left the Post after owner Jeff Bezos demanded the Opinion section largely focus on “personal liberties and free markets." Yes, they’re under pressure. But maybe these leaders kinda like what Trump’s doing.

— Perry Bacon, TNR's newest team member
trib.al/Xj7T00b

1/ Reporting from WSJ provides insight into how recent trade agreements were negotiated and what remains unresolved. The pattern: accelerated timelines have left significant technical details for later negotiation, creating uncertainty for businesses.

www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

Screenshot of opinion by Judge Karen Henderson: KAREN LECRAFT HENDERSON, Circuit Judge, statement respecting the denial of a stay pending appeal: “Throughout the 1600s, the Stuart monarchs engaged in a titanic struggle with Parliament regarding who would reign supreme over the public purse. That struggle was marked by civil war, regicide and a new wellspring of liberty in the Glorious Revolution of 1688. By the end of the upheaval, Parliament emerged supreme in matters of taxation and spending. Our Constitution followed suit, granting the Congress plenary control over the public fisc. Recently, the Executive has once again locked horns in a struggle for control over the purse strings. Across a slew of cases, recipients of congressional funding have challenged the President's ability to unilaterally freeze or "impound" spending.' Today's case is but the latest chapter in the ongoing saga.”

Karen Henderson is the longest-serving Republican appointee on the D.C. Circuit. She’s deeply conservative but not Trumpy.

In ordering the Trump administration to restore a congressionally mandated database of federal spending, she strongly suggests the president is engaging in king-like behavior.

Why Aaron Boone’s name was noticeably missing from Yankees’ Old-Timers’ Day intros Aaron Boone’s name appeared on the Yankees’ Old-Timers’ Day roster, but he was not announced during the ceremonial introductions for the annual event.

A #Yankees spokesperson said Aaron Boone wasn't introduced during Old-Timers' Day ceremonies because they overlapped with a pitchers meeting.

Prior to that, some other Old-Timers shared some pointed criticisms of the 2025 Bombers.

NEWSMAX * • Follow NEWSMAX 2d • Harvard Law School professor emeritus Alan Dershowitz was once again refused a pierogi from an unwilling vendor at a Martha's Vineyard market, the latest in his controversies over pierogis in the celebrity hot spot. newsmax.com Dershowitz Again Denied Pierogi, Told to Leave Farmer's Market 1.2K 750 comments 66 shares

Can’t say why exactly, but the phrase “once again refused a pierogi” made me laugh out loud.

Wow, this is great.

Once again, the "real America," or what we hope is real, poking up its head.

h/t bsky.app/profile/oisi...

<em>Policy Studies Journal</em> | PSO Public Policy Journal | Wiley Online Library This paper develops a theory of the relationship between policy disasters and political institutions. Policy disasters, defined as avoidable, unintended extreme negative policy outcomes, are importan....

My work: illiberal democracies have twice the rate of financial crises and natural disasters as liberal democracies.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Would you want to invest in a country where the regime expropriates assets from its opponents?

In related news, "personalist regimes are characterized by lower total factor productivity and ... low private investment, poor public-goods provision, and conflict" www.nber.org/system/files...

Long's primary credential for IRS Commissioner was promoting a fraud-riddled tax scheme, and yet still appears to have more integrity than the rest of the Trump administration.
Trump has previously fired career civil servants reluctant to break the law, but Long would be the first Cabinet official.

“In cities with large Republican vote shares, protest is associated with significant increases in police budgets.”

Top work, well done everyone.

Johnny Damon

Nice to see that old wrestler out on the field--Wait, is that?

Trump administration eyeing IPOs for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this year, US official says U.S. President Donald Trump's administration could kick off initial public offerings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac later this year, according to a senior administration official, marking a key milestone for the mortgage finance giants that have been under government control for years.

Trump really is speed running the second Bush term. Privatizing Fannie and Freddie is an awful idea, because everyone knows that their debt is guaranteed by the U.S. government.

It could create another crisis if they go back to loose lending.

www.reuters.com/business/tru...

Laura Loomer is 32 and born in Arizona. Why didn't she serve? Maybe then she could be the American-born recipient that she wants.