Prof. Benjamin Forest

YouTube video by CortoMaltese86 Casablanca La Marseillaise

Vive les républiques. . .

www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM-E...

I got distracted thinking about turnout in US presidential elections. Here is a graph showing the total presidential votes from 1824-2024 as a percentage of eligible voters and as a percentage of total population.

#no-tryants!

With this thread in mind it’s a good time to praise current IAS professor Alondra Nelson for doing right by this legacy: time.com/7285045/resi...

Never. There, I said it.

To be clear, Canadians writing about Canada think this is always true.

This is not bad – with caveats. The CBC’s own forecast range for the LPC (141-217) included the actual results, albeit with much wider range. Increasing the standard deviation for the vote shares in the simulations to 10% from 5% produces ranges that include the actual results.

The model under predicted the NDP (0-3) and over-predicted the LPC (174-202), although combining my earlier guestimate of 7 seats for the NDP with the assumption that these seats would have otherwise gone to the LPC puts the low Liberal forecast at 170.

The final results are in, per CBC, for vote share (and seats). LPC 43.7 (169). CPC 41.3 (144). Bloc: 6.3 (22). NDP 6.3 (7). Green 1.3 (1). Using these vote shares, the seats are high end of the forecast ranges for the CPC (126-148), Bloc (12-25) and Green (0-2).

Like the CPC, the Bloc (23) over-performed but is within the model’s range. As expected, the NDP (7) had a bad night. As I had guessed, they did better than the model’s forecast of 0-1. I’ll post again once the results are finalized.

The votes are still being counted but it appears the LPC is headed for a minority government with 168 seats. Based on the preliminary popular vote, my model over-predicted their seat count, but the CPC (144) is within the predicted range (albeit on the very high end).

Like the CPC, the Bloc (23) over-performed but is within the model’s range. As expected, the NDP (7) had a bad night, but did better than the model’s forecast of 0-1. I’ll post again once the results are finalized.

CBC just called it for the Liberals.

Kaleigh Rogers @KaleighRogers One couple at a voting station in Port Credit said they would rather not speak to American media. They then apologized three times. 10:12 AM • 4/28/25 • 69K Views

Peak Canada

In contrast, with one or two exceptions, where the LPC and NDP are close, they are fighting for 2nd place behind the Conservatives. The NDP will probably pick up ~5 close races from the Liberals, but it's not going to be a massive shift.

Such a sweep would probably push the Liberals to a massive 200-seat majority. And if the CPC craters, Trump will probably claim he was talking about Carney.

I am dubious about predicting individual ridings, but it looks like there are about 20 where either the CPC or LPC lead, but are within 5 points of each other. If the Liberals sweep these, they will perhaps have Trump’s intervention to thank (although it’s doubtful much changes at this stage).

RE: Trump's statement on the Canadian election, endorsing Pierre Poilievre without actually naming him, saying PP will help Canada become a state.

Once the results are in (probably tomorrow), I’ll run the model with the actual vote share to see how the model did this time around. My guesstimate is the LPC with about 185 seats with the NPD ending up with around 7.

My forecasts based on the final CBC polling averages. The LPC are on track for a majority government with 190-191 seats with the CPC in opposition (132-133 seats). NDP (1-2), Bloc (17-18), and Greens (0-1) are far behind, but the NDP will probably do better at the expense of the LPC.

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The model forecasts a 100% chance of a Liberal majority government, but a successful NDP defence of its stronghold ridings could conceivably push the LPC into minority territory. The hints of a slight national swing to the NDP would be less relevant than focused attention on key districts. 2/2

Polls still don’t show any major national swings. The CBC average has the LPC (42.5%) leading the CPC (38.7%) by about 4 percentage points, and 8 of the 10 most recent polls has them leading by at least 3 points. Today’s average forecasts 190-191 seats for the LPC and 130-131 for the CPC. 1/2

You could leave in the "Creator of Sin City".

Although the absolute support for the LPC is lower in these two polls, it gives them the highest average seat count: 194.5, and a substantially worse result for the Conservatives (124 seats). These polls are also marginally better for the NDP (3.5 seats) and worse for the Bloc (18 seats). 2/2

Poll Tracker If an election were held today, who would win? The CBC News Poll Tracker is your guide to following the polls. Get the latest numbers and analysis on where the political parties stand from Éric Grenie...

No student has shown up to my office hours, so I ran one more set of simulations, with the Nanos Research / CTV-Globe and Mail. This poll – along with one from Liaison Strategies / NEPMCC – has the largest difference between the LPC and CPC (43% to 37%). 1/2 newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/po...

The 40-40 tie from the Mainstreet poll still forecasts a Liberal victory, but with an average of only 181 seats and the CPC in opposition with 140-141 seats. Some simulations show a Liberal minority, but less than 1% of the time. As in 2021, the FPTP system helps the Liberals substantially. 4/4