yieldcurve.pro

yieldcurve.pro - fed chart

Federal Reserve rate update.

The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.43%.

Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed

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#YieldCurve #Fed #Treasuries

yieldcurve.pro Interactive yield curve charts, Treasury auction analysis, FOMC rate decisions, and interest rate regime detection.

Top Stories

1. Here Are My Top 2 Financial Stocks to Buy Now
2. Here Are My Top 2 Financial Stocks to Buy Now
3. Bond ETF Bulls on Parade
4. Active ETF Growth Narrows Gap With Passive
5. Integrating AI and Quantitative Trading

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/news

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#YieldCurve

10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury spread over time

Duration Extension: Worth It?

2Y → 10Y trade-off:
• Extra yield: +61 bps
• Break-even: ~10 bps/year rate rise

If rates rise <10 bps over the next year, extension wins.
If rates rise more, price loss wipes out yield pickup.

2Y: 3.43% | 1...

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes

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I have the latest issue of Scientific Proof magazine in my pocket.

It says GDP is at record highs, productivity is soaring, and nobody can afford lunch.

"Economists" call it a paradox.

We call it Taco-less Tuesday.
#YieldCurve

yieldcurve.pro - auctions chart

Recent Treasury auction demand.

View all auctions at https://www.yieldcurve.pro/auctions

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#YieldCurve #Auctions #Treasuries

yieldcurve.pro - The Laws of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone book cover

The Laws of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone by Agustin Lebron



https://www.amazon.com/Laws-Trading-Traders-Decision-Making-Everyone/dp/1119574218/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1RZFGBUHGC4N&keywords=laws+of+trading&qid=1700449206&sprefix=laws+of+trading%252...

30-Year minus 20-Year Treasury spread over time

Is the Long End Inverted?

30Y-20Y spread: +7 bps
1W: +2 bps | 1Y: +10 bps

Normal - 30Y yielding more than 20Y

Why it matters: When 30Y yields less than 20Y,
it signals convexity demand from pensions/insurers
and liability-driven investo...

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes

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This is niche but...did you know that Numerai (https://numer.ai/) uses CVXPY (https://www.cvxpy.org/) as their optimization engine. 🤔

Sizeable AUM is managed with that framework. 📈

Good FWM episode -> https://ycpro.short.gy/dIQaFt
#YieldCurve

The End of the Hedge Ian Harnett argues the 40-year stock-bond correlation regime is over. If he's right, most institutional portfolios are running unhedged risk they haven't priced.

The End of the Hedge

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/end-of-the-hedge
#YieldCurve

yieldcurve.pro - regimes chart

Current yield curve regime is Bull Steep.

🐂📈

Slope was constructed from 10 Yr and 2 Yr tenors with a 251 day lookback.

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes

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#YieldCurve #Regimes #Rates

The Shape of Risk: Ten Treasury Curve Snapshots That Defined the Modern Era A chronological tour of ten yield curve snapshots — precise to the basis point — from 9/11 to the 2023 term-premium surge. Each one a policy inflection point, a crisis record, or both.

The Shape of Risk: Ten Treasury Curve Snapshots That Defined the Modern Era

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/ten-moments-treasury-curve
#YieldCurve #Treasuries

Is Gold a Stock-Bond Diversifier (Part 3)? Does adding gold to traditional stock-bond portfolios provide diversification? The answer is it (still) depends.

Is Gold a Stock-Bond Diversifier (Part 3)?

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/is-gold-a-diversifier-part-3

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#YieldCurve #Treasuries

Key tenor yields for rolldown analysis

Where's the Best Rolldown?

Rolldown = price gain if curve shape stays constant
(steeper slope = more bps/yr rolldown)

2Y-5Y: carry 3.65% + rolldown +5.7 bps/yr
5Y-10Y: carry 4.08% + rolldown +8.6 bps/yr ← best
10Y-30Y: carry 4.72% + roll...

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes

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Lehman Brothers Foreign Exchange Training Manual This classic document covers spot transactions, forwards, swaps, and options. Designed for traders, it includes practical examples, calculations, and scenarios that illustrate how to manage positions and understand market conventions.

Give this classic paper a read

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/papers/lehman-brothers-fx-training-manual

This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro

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#YieldCurve #FixedIncome

yieldcurve.pro - premia chart

ACM term premium decomposition as of Feb 20, 2026.

10Y term premium: +2.38%
10Y rate expectations: 1.72%

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/premia

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#YieldCurve #ForwardRates

Things We Read This Week A curated collection of informative reads.

Things We Read This Week

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/things-we-read-this-week-002

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#YieldCurve #FixedIncome

Yield levels for 2 Yr, 5 Yr, 10 Yr over the past quarter

What Moved the Curve This Week?

3 commonly used proxies for curve moves:
• Level (parallel shift): -1 bps
• Slope (flattening): -2 bps
• Twist (curve shape): -4 bps

Biggest mover: Curvature

Current: 10 Yr 4.08% | 2s10s +60 bps

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#YieldCurve #Rates #BondMarket

Treasury Auction Results & Analysis | yieldcurve.pro Analyze US Treasury auction results. Track bid-to-cover ratios, tail spreads, and dealer allocations for Bills, Notes, and Bonds.

We tracks those 👇

www.yieldcurve.pro/auctions

yieldcurve.pro - slopes chart

Yield curve slope measured using the 10 Yr Note and 3 Mo Bill.

The current slope is at 39 bps (Normal 📈).

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes

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#YieldCurve #Treasuries #Rates

Front-end Treasury yields (1Mo to 1Yr) over the past quarter

Front End Monitor

Yield (1W chg bps)
1 Mo: 3.72% (+0)
3 Mo: 3.69% (-1)
6 Mo: 3.61% (+3)
1 Yr: 3.51% (+6)

Fed funds: 3.75%
3Mo near Fed funds (-6 bps)

Front end inverted: 1Yr-1Mo = -21 bps
Unusual — signals expectations of immine...

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels

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Nice insights. Thanks for sharing.

...and yet...?

The Yield Curve Predicted a Recession That Never Came — What Went Wrong? The 10 Yr - 3 Mo yield curve — Campbell Harvey's original recession indicator, unblemished through eight cycles — inverted to nearly -200 bp in 2022 and held for two years. No recession came. We examine both inversion measures, trace the historical track record, and explain the four structural forces that overwhelmed the signal.

The Yield Curve Predicted a Recession That Never Came — What Went Wrong?

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/yield-curve-recession-false-positive
#YieldCurve

yieldcurve.pro - levels chart

Treasury yields for the 3 Mo Bill and the 10 Yr Note.

The 3 Mo and the 10 Yr ended at 3.69% and 4.08%, respectively.

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels

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#YieldCurve #Treasuries

yieldcurve.pro Interactive yield curve charts, Treasury auction analysis, FOMC rate decisions, and interest rate regime detection.

Top Stories

1. Here Are My Top 2 Financial Stocks to Buy Now
2. Active ETF Growth Narrows Gap With Passive
3. Do Wall Street Analysts Like Capital One Financ...
4. Integrating AI and Quantitative Trading
5. Fluz unveils embedded payments pl...

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/news

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How to Read Implied Forward Rates What are implied forward rates and how do you read them? A practical guide to extracting market expectations from the yield curve, with interactive charts.

What are implied forward rates and how do you read them? A practical guide to extracting market expectations from the yield curve, with interactive charts.

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/how-to-read-implied-forward-rates?refresh=1
#YieldCurve #ForwardRates #FixedIncome

Key Treasury yields over the past month

Weekly Yield Curve Recap

Yield (1W chg bps)
2 Yr: 3.47% (-5)
5 Yr: 3.65% (-10)
10 Yr: 4.08% (-10)
30 Yr: 4.70% (-12)

Biggest mover: 30 Yr (-12 bps)
2s10s flattened (-5 bps)
Regime: Bull Steep 🐂📈

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels

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#YieldCurve #Rates #Regimes

Give this classic paper a read

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/lehman_repo_manual.pdf

This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro

✨
#YieldCurve #FixedIncome

yieldcurve.pro - The Laws of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone book cover

The Laws of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone by Agustin Lebron



https://www.amazon.com/Laws-Trading-Traders-Decision-Making-Everyone/dp/1119574218/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1RZFGBUHGC4N&keywords=laws+of+trading&qid=1700449206&sprefix=laws+of+trading%252...

yieldcurve.pro Interactive yield curve charts, Treasury auction analysis, FOMC rate decisions, and interest rate regime detection.

Top Stories

1. Here Are My Top 2 Financial Stocks to Buy Now
2. Active ETF Growth Narrows Gap With Passive
3. Integrating AI and Quantitative Trading
4. Revaluation Alpha: Why Past Factor Returns May...
5. ETF of the Week: Invesco S&P 500 E...

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/news

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