Daniel McDowell

I think current econ theory on what makes an international currency supports this, where the reserve role is basically supported (and a consequence of) the other less sexy roles

wait, I always dim the lights and light a candle before I use that phrase. Am I doing it wrong?

Some more of my dollar thoughts below in this good @AP piece, "Seeking shelter from Trump’s fury, U.S. trade partners reach deals with each other"

Link: apnews.com/article/trum...

lol

fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/h...

#Warsh on central bank independence in 2010.

#fed

(and also, great pt)

great figure!

Thank you, Robert!

Mark, your vote of confidence means everything to me.

A few more of my thoughts on gold's surge in this @apnews.com story on the subject: apnews.com/article/gold...

In the last 10-minutes of the podcast weighs four possible futures for the international monetary system and the dollar and considers the biggest risks facing the world today.

FYI: Our conversation took place in December, before Powell's video warning about Fed independence and before President Trump's saber rattling on Greenland.

Episode 317: The Rise of Parallel Financial Systems: Digital Currencies, Sanctions Evasion, and Geoeconomic Influence with Dr Daniel McDowell

Cold & snow have you locked inside your house w/ nothing to do? Check out my 30-min convo with @dominicbowen.bsky.social of the @riskpodcast.bsky.social. We discuss how geopolitics, sanctions, & digital currencies are shaping the future of the US dollar.

open.spotify.com/episode/0Azr...

Mark Carney is a gift to Intro to IR professors everywhere.

Don’t bet on dollar dethronement If you want to see how entrenched the US currency is in the global system, look at the foreign exchange swap market

Coming in April: the paperback edition of my book KING DOLLAR, with a new preface reflecting developments in 2025, i.e. the follies of Trump & Co.
Do those developments vitiate the book’s thesis that dollar dominance is all but impregnable?
My answer, hot off the press:
🧵
www.ft.com/content/a326...

Value of gold skyrockets against the dollar - The World from PRX Global demand for gold has driven its price up to as much as $5,500 per ounce. Daniel McDowell, a political scientist at Syracuse University and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, tells The World’...

Gold is a hot commodity (dad joke) at the moment. Today, I spoke to The World's Carolyn Beeler about the metal's recent surge, why we value gold, its traditional role as a safe harbor in times of trouble, and so much more.

theworld.org/segments/202...

If this is their strong dollar policy, I can't imagine what the weak dollar policy would look like.

Where would USD be today if the average real yield on the 10-year was zero, not 1.9%?

On one hand, I get this point that I've seen made several times

OTOH, the issue w/ these long-term charts is that it implies that all other conditions in the US and world economy are constant. But they are not. 10-year Treasury yield was 1.5% in 2012, its 4.2% today, for example.

Such a dumb war.

Periodic reminder that the 2022 sanctions on Russia did not trigger the central bank gold buying spree. By 2022, most of the big CB gold buyers were years into a bullion buying binge.

Measles are back. Gold is at the center of the global monetary system. 1940s are so hot RN.

The only thing hotter than gold right now is measles.

So very true.

Now, it may end there: a world that increasingly wants an alternative but gets none. Because, as you say, someone has to be Lt. Weinberg.

But if you were the issuer of the dominant global currency and you prioritized maintaining that status, you wouldn't want the question asked in the 1st place

All excellent points, Mark. It may very well be the case that despite all of this, nothing meaningful will change.

But also: if anything meaningful is to happen, underlying perceptions/preferences have to move first.

I think that may be happening now in light of April '25, and this week.

Missed it this morning, but a great thread on de-dollarisation:

"The exchange rate is the most important price in any economy, since it affects all other prices."

-Jeffry Frieden

The dollar is falling. How do Americans feel about this?

David Steinberg & I asked about this on a November 2024 survey.

Only 16% agreed that the US should devalue the dollar; 42% disagreed.

72% agreed that dollar dominance is a good thing.

Link: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...