@calliecox.bsky.social
🤓 Your resident market nerd 💙 Author of OptimistiCallie 👉 https://www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
Treat your central bank like a third-world country, trade like a third-world country.
bsky.app/profile/apne...
really hope he keeps his word this time 🫠
12.01.2026 01:22 — 👍 23 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation”
It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Josh would never
27.12.2025 13:37 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Noooooooooooooo 🫠 where to even start here...
26.12.2025 16:56 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Oh it's 100% true. Said it directly to me, too.
26.12.2025 16:38 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0Several years ago, a male colleague told me how unfair it is that women get a three-month vacation in maternity leave
Boy do I think about that comment a lot as I vomit and waddle my way to the finish line.
I'm on maternity leave, and OptimistiCallie is on a publishing hiatus.
But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁
www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...
1/ I strongly endorse this op-ed by @marthagimbel.bsky.social of @budgetlab.bsky.social in @theargumentmag.bsky.social .
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
ugh god ty for flagging
15.12.2025 03:19 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Our first research paper is out, too!
Download it here: www.wisdomtree.com/bannerads/ri...
PERSONAL(ISH) NEWS:
I hate slop research.
And I'm building a research business with @thecompoundnews.bsky.social
optimisticallie.com/p/slop-resea...
The Beige Book says employment is contracting, ADP says employment is contracting, the BLS says unemployment is going up, continuing jobless claims are rising, and WARN notices are up. It's very clear what's going on in the labor market, but stocks are up so people brush it off.
03.12.2025 13:34 — 👍 171 🔁 39 💬 5 📌 7Thankful for all of you ❤️ 🦃
27.11.2025 21:13 — 👍 10 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
🎶 Do you have to?
do you have to?
do you have to let it linger? 🎶
🍂 ATTENTION ADVISORS 🍂
We're conducting research on how you talk about legacies, estates and inheritances in your practices.
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Take the survey HERE: qualtricsxmdbbjzg4m7.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
Ooooo, AP style strikes again (I had almost wiped it from my mind!)
26.11.2025 03:02 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0I'm offended they have to put our city AND state here like c'mon
25.11.2025 21:14 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0You, the halfway tuned in cousin: wow Fed members really agree on nothing huh
Me, a Fed nerd: yeah well that's what happens when the two sides of the dual mandate are in conflict OK? nobody agrees on which target to shoot at. btw pass the potatoes
The unemployment rate moved higher in September, mainly because people permanently lost their jobs.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
to eat more zebra cakes
17.11.2025 18:55 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
🔭 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔭
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
😵💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵💫
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Strange: the 2-year yield is up 12 basis points on the day, its biggest move higher on a Fed day since March 2008.
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
oh hi Carl thanks for sharing!!!
22.10.2025 15:31 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
Two interesting stats:
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
