Chris Rugaber

The fiscal outlook discussion at the @nabe-econ.bsky.social annual meeting is not exactly uplifting. Sorry y’all but AI driven productivity cannot plausibly fix the problem, hope for bipartisan approaches seem remote at best, immigration policy hurts, and we keep going until the market cries uncle…

Nobel economics prize goes to 3 researchers for explaining innovation-driven economic growth Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have won the Nobel memorial prize in economics for explaining innovation-driven economic growth.

Then he hung up and went to walk his dog.

apnews.com/article/nobe...

Spoke to new Nobel Economics laureate Joel Mokyr early this morning.

His students had asked him about the possibility he would win the Nobel, he said. "I told them that I was more likely to be elected pope than to win the Nobel prize in economics, and I am Jewish by the way."
1/2

Trump says inflation is 'defeated' and the Fed has cut rates, yet prices remain too high for many Inflation has risen in three of the last four months and is slightly higher than it was a year ago. Yet you wouldn’t know it from listening to President Donald Trump or even some of the inflation figh...

WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation has risen in three of the last four months and is slightly higher than it was a year ago. Yet you wouldn’t know it from listening to President Donald Trump or even some of the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve.

apnews.com/article/trum...

The rich keep spending, so everything is fine, right?

Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index continues to hold firm and is up by 5.8% year/year in most recent week
#EconSky

The Federal Reserve's minutes today paint a picture of a rate-setting committee that is all over the map. Our story makes some sense of it:

apnews.com/article/infl...

Friday's ISM services report shows that tariffs are still flowing through the economy and raising prices. Am hearing this anecdotally from companies ... it takes time. (Not saying inflation is going to soar, but still):

The data has been delayed before during previous shutdowns. We will see it eventually. Meanwhile ADP data does suggest it may not look good.

If you ask small businesses about job creation plans, job openings, inventory plans, earnings or capital expenditure plans they're much more dour than they were a few years ago.

But they express much more optimistic about the future than before. www.nfib.com/wp-content/u...

Kevin Warsh, a leading candidate to replace Jay Powell, is speaking at a finance event. This is a “precarious moment” for the Fed, he says. “It is not because outsiders are looking to change the status quo.” He blames intrusion into fiscal policy and decisions on “climate change, inclusion policy.”

Live Updates: 4 Dead, 8 Wounded in Michigan Church Attack The police said they believed the attacker opened fire on the congregation and intentionally set fire to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints building near Flint. The shooter died after exchanging fire with police officers, officials said.

The death toll is now four victims after a gunman rammed a vehicle into a Michigan church and shot worshipers, officials said. The church was set on fire.

Defense Department Delays Cleanup of ‘Forever Chemicals’ Nationwide The new timeline could slow cleanup in some communities by nearly a decade. The chemicals, widely used in the military, are linked to cancers and other health risks.

The Department of Defense has quietly delayed its cleanup of harmful “forever chemicals” at nearly 140 military installations across the U.S., according to a list of sites analyzed by The New York Times.

Um, you mean Advanced Placement (AP), right? I’m a reporter at the Associated Press 😆

Trump's Federal Reserve appointee seeks steeper rate cuts President Donald Trump’s appointee to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors said Monday that the central bank’s key interest rate should be much lower than its current 4.1% level, staking out a pos...

Would be a big change in how things operate! Our story:

apnews.com/article/fede...

New Fed governor Stephen Miran said today the Fed could reconsider its 2% inflation target in future:

"If you look before 2012, the Fed didn’t have a formal target at all," he said. "They pursued low and stable prices. To me, that’s an interesting way of doing things also." 1/2

Good point about economic data and economy by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem:

One reason "the U.S. is the largest, most dynamic economy in the world with the deepest capital markets, is because it is and has been the best measured economy in the world."

What a new poll shows about where Americans think the country is heading A new poll shows Republicans’ outlook on the direction of the country has soured dramatically. The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll was conducted shortly after last week's...

Story: apnews.com/article/poll...

AP poll finds sharp drop in Republicans saying country is heading in right direction:

@chrisrugaber.bsky.social asked a good Q in yesterday's Fed press conference--could tariffs be reducing labor demand as companies unable to pass them along thru higher prices to cautious consumers protect margins instead by reducing hiring & labor costs. That seems to be just what CEOs are reporting

ICYMI: Trump’s efforts to exert more control over the Federal Reserve could over time boost inflation and interest rates. Our story:

apnews.com/article/fede...

Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook has hired prominent DC attorney Abbe Lowell and says she won't step down:

Cook: “President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign."

Trump says he's firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, opening new front in fight for central bank control President Donald Trump says he's firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, a sharp escalation in his battle to exert greater control over what has long been considered an institution independent from...

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Trump said he’s firing Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook, an unprecedented move that would constitute a sharp escalation in his battle to exert greater control over what has long been considered an institution independent from day-to-day politics.

apnews.com/article/fede...

Fed Chair Powell faces fresh challenges to Fed independence amid potential rate cuts Now that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank could soon cut its key interest rate, he faces a new challenge: how to do it without seeming to cave to the White House’...

Can Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cut rates later this year without seeming to cave to Donald Trump? Our story takes a look. 🧵

apnews.com/article/fede...

Yes, you?

Powell signals Fed may cut rates soon even as inflation risks remain Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened the door ever so slightly to lowering a key interest rate in the coming months but gave no hint on the timing of a move and suggested the central b...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opens door to rate cut while Trump threatens to fire Fed official:

apnews.com/article/infl...

@chrisrugaber.bsky.social sheds some light on Fed board majority situation here~ 🫴

Hundreds may have been exposed to rabies at bat-infested cabins in Grand Teton National Park Health officials are alerting hundreds of people who may have been exposed to rabies in bat-infested cabins at Wyoming's Grand Teton National Park.

ICYMI: If you are going to Jackson Hole later this week, our story on the bat infestation has the numbers of the affected cabins. Including 516, 518... (hope I'm not in one).

apnews.com/article/bat-...

Inflation or jobs: Federal Reserve officials are divided over competing concerns Federal Reserve policymakers will be debating whether stubborn inflation or slower hiring is the bigger problem for the economy as they prepare for an annual conference in Jackson, Wyoming, next week ...

Our story:

apnews.com/article/infl...

The view that tariffs will likely just be a one-time boost to prices is clearly held by Waller and Bowman, and maybe Daly, but Bostic's view is also interesting: That, if successful, tariffs will shift more production to US and boost prices longer-term. (3/x)

The view that tariffs will likely just be a one-time boost to prices is clearly held by Waller and Bowman, and maybe Daly, but Bostic's view is also interesting: That, if successful, tariffs will shift more production to US and boost prices longer-term. (3/x)