The Leuthold Group

$SPX is up 25% from Apr 8 thru Jun 30. Our earnings & cash-flow estimates keep getting better, but can’t keep pace with the swelling numerators in their ratios. The New Era’s potential downside is two ticks away from its near-term extreme (-33%) of last Nov. #MarketTrends #Stocks

Every posting since Q3-2020 is considered an outlier in the history of this data.

With a steadily rising standard of living since 1947, U.S. workers have enjoyed improved buying power. Still, soaring equity valuations have drastically slashed stock market purchasing power. One needs to work over 218 hours to buy a single unit in $SPX. #Valuations #Wages #Investing

Note that a similar signal in Feb-24 was a fail, though.

In June, S&P 1500's normalized P/E ratio fell below its median, implying performance near the +10% LT norm is possible for the average stock. The P/CF ratio hit the bottom decile relative to $SPX, which usually triggers a rebound in the average stock. #Investing

Just 3 out of 8 leading indicators have confirmed the new $SPX bull market peak. Uneven recoveries are not unusual, though, especially following a 19% drop. We're choosing to wait a bit before viewing the stragglers as yellow flags. $RUT #Stocks #Investing

Both the S&P 500 and NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line reached 52-week highs this month, suggesting a promising outlook for continued gains as the year wraps up. #StockMarket #Investing

June’s action again provided the Cap-Weighted S&P 500 a decent YTD lead over Equal-Weighted $SPX, but not quite to the extent of 2023 & 2024 (thus far). Equal-Wgt vs Cap-Wgt relative strength also hit a fresh 22-year low. #investing #Mag7

Pre-2020, when @ConferenceBoard Index of #LEI was in recession mode, $SPX posted -0.3% TR annlzd; the rest of the time, SPX was up 11.6%. Post-2020, LEI has become a contrary signal: Since 2020 when LEI has been in recession mode (45% of time) SPX gained 18% annlzd. #Economy