The Leuthold Group

In report by #PaulLaMonica, Leuthold’s Opsal notes: Blue chips are feeling no love in this growth-fired market, of late, but don’t ignore Quality—it’s had solid results in recent years and kept pace with the Mag-7 fueled $SPX dub.sh/qTJyKnW @Barronsonline $COST $COKE #paywall

Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market? Stocks keep marching higher, but there are signs of strain under the surface.

Leuthold PM Phil Segner talks with #SarahHansen Sr Reporter
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing

On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing

Huge Tech underweight & big Staples overweight explains much of Dividend Aristocrat shortfall. Such deviations due to DA’s membership rules, but could a virtue if worried about mega-cap Tech correction, or diversifying from heavy positions in that highflying cohort

Blue-chip Dividend Aristocrats often perform well when markets dip and hold their ground in most rising markets (except today's large-cap surge). When the AI hype cools, #Aristocrats are set to stay competitive. If a recession hits, they're apt to outperform. #DividendInvesting #Economy

"The stock market’s long rise is masking underlying economic weakness and pushing off a recession," Doug Ramsey Leuthold CIO via @BW "What should we do with our money these days? These financial experts have a few ideas" www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

Your S&P 500 Index Fund Might Not Be as Diverse As You Think—And You Can Blame Nvidia for That Not all S&P 500 companies are created equal. In fact, if you’ve invested in a fund that tracks the S&P 500, you might be surprised how heavily it’s weighted to a single company: Nvidia (NVDA).

Leuthold research cited by @Investopedia: Your S&P 500 index fund might lack diversity, with Nvidia being a key factor. www.investopedia.com/your-s-and-p...

Recent stock market leadership has been piloted by lower-quality and more speculative stocks. Illustrating this is the Russell 2000: Its September upsurge to a new cycle high was propelled by its UNprofitable components. $RUT #Mag7 #Stocks

We've observed some broader disagreement among long-term leaders, including the Magnificent Seven—only two have made new 52-week highs over the last month. #Mag7 #Stocks $QQQ

The S&P 500 is notably overvalued compared to house prices. Through Q2-25, just 72 $SPX units were needed to buy a median-priced home. Back in 1968, acquiring a median home (around $19,700) required about 210 S&P 500 units. #RealEstate #Investing

It appears that investors are no longer content with annual S&P 500 gains of 15-20% and now feel compelled to lever them.

Notwithstanding the headlines, Margin Debt surpassing $1T is irrelevant. The real Red Flag is #MarginDebt climbing faster than $SPX. Its YoY growth in Aug was 33% vs $SPX’s 14%. The tops of Y2K, 2007 & 2021/2022 were all preceded by similar breakouts in the growth-rate gap of these two measures.

Chief investment officer reveals what is 'PROPPING UP' the 'two-tier' economy | Fox Business Video The Leuthold Group CIO Doug Ramsey assesses the state of the economy and reveals what is 'propping' it up on 'Making Money.'

Join the chat on "Making Money with Charles Payne" as Doug Ramsey, Leuthold's CIO, delves into the economic climate. @cvpayne.bsky.social Watch at www.foxbusiness.com/video/638011... [timestamp 02:00] #ConsumerSpending #Inflation #Employment

The Fed’s Powell Sees Stocks As Expensive. That’s Not His Problem. The Fed chair isn’t ready to add a stock market bubble to his hefty plate of challenges.

Leuthold's Doug Ramsey thinks $SPX should be a part of the “inflation-forecasting tool kit”—in both directions. Article by @mdbaccardax.bsky.social shorturl.at/4wtXt barrons.com #InflationRisk #FederalReserve #paywall

$SPX Materials surged 6% in August; it was the best-performing sector in the index. The few mining stocks still in the index carried the Materials sector higher, with $NEM (+20%) and $FCX (+10%) leading the way.

Although this is the third up-leg in a nearly 3-yr-old bull market, outperformance of Cyclical equities vs Defensives since the April low has been markedly stronger than that of the first upswing following a recessionary bear market bottom #StockMarket #Investing

Mid-September’s highs in the #NYSE A/D Line, $SPX Equal Weighted index, S&P 500 Financials, and our S&P 500 Cyclical sector suggest a traditional topping process has not even started. #BullMarket

Despite not suffering the pain of a recessionary bear market, stock action since the April low looks like a post-recession acceleration. We’re in the 3rd up-leg of a cyclical bull that began at full employment, yet the rally tracks the 1st upsurge after a recessionary bear. #StockMarket #BullRun

Despite the top-heavy nature of market leadership, it’s hard to argue that stocks are now under serious “distribution.”

The stock market isn't pricier than in February and appears healthier. Back then, 7 of 8 key indicators showed warnings, while only four do today. Importantly, both the NYSE Daily A/D Line and Equal Weighted S&P 500 support $SPX's movements. #StockMarket #Investing #Breadth

The problem is not the amount or type of ammunition at the Fed’s disposal (there is always plenty), but rather with its aim. There are no surgical strikes with monetary policy, and the immediate beneficiaries are unlikely to be those the Fed is trying to target.

Next week's rate cut parallels pre-GFC actions. Like 2007, despite rising inflation, the Fed cites a housing slump and weakening labor market as reasons for the move. In '07, the cut didn't boost growth, and inflation increased. Today, economic indicators already appear bleak.

LST: Leuthold Select Industries ETF Leuthold Select Industries ETF (LST) seeks long-term growth by flexibly investing across diverse industries to capture evolving market opportunities.

Leuthold Select Industries ETF (LST) shorturl.at/tIVIE is overweight Comm. Srvs. and Financials, with group concentrations from each. These sectors have held the top ranks in our work since May 2024 and complement each other well: growth, cyclical, and defensive industries are scattered across both.

Fighting The Political Odds The Trump administration inherited a fully employed economy, but one showing most leading indicators (except the stock market) flashing yellow or red. Nearly eight months into his term, that’s still…

Given the fundamental backdrop, we'd be stunned if a recession doesn’t break out before the end of Trump’s term. There’s also political history working against Trump. Only one #Republican term ended without the economy falling into recession (Reagan’s 2nd). tinyurl.com/4z5xp65f #Recession

With consecutive gains from May thru Aug, $SPX has defied the "Sell In May" adage this year. When this occurred in the past (albeit a small sample of 14), the index's average return was +5.3% from Sep-Dec vs. +1.9% in all other years. #MarketTrends #S&P500

Phil. Fed Bus. Outlook Survey offers an early peek at the ISM Mfg Survey. Latest data is unfavorable: New Orders fell into contraction, and Prices Paid hit levels not seen since June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9.1%. Current inflation pressures exceed those before the GFC.

Between April 1st and July 31st, the Cap-Weighted S&P 500 surged by +13.4%, notably exceeding the Equal-Weighted $SPX's +6.5%. This marks the third-best four-month period for Cap-Weighted upside relative to the EW index since the #Y2K tech boom. #MarketTrends #Equities

Through July, a conspicuous spike in $RIND (+7.3% YTD) is confirmed by 2 other commodity price gauges (in sharp contrast to CPI & PPI). This is worrisome as rising input costs could hinder CPI's progress to 2%

Lately, we noted a spike in the CRB Raw Ind $RIND & other commodity indices. Those seeking to hedge escalating input costs can find solid options among diversified commodity ETFs. Since the May '20 inflation trough, such ETFs have excelled over other options. Avoid TIPS; they provide little defense.

CRB Raw Ind Index ($RIND) tracks manufacturing input costs and can foretell inflation trends. By July, RIND's notable +7.3% YTD rise is mirrored by two other commodity price measures, contrasting with CPI & PPI. This is concerning, as rising input costs could hinder CPI's progress to 2% #CPI #CRB