Nils Redeker

Das war ein Meilenstein: Präsident Macron hat eine "vorgerückte" französische Abschreckung (dissuasion avancée) verkündet. Deutschland ist privilegierter und ambitioniertester Partner, andere europäische Länder ebenfalls dabei.

Hauptpunkte 🧵

Pretty clear message from Friedrich Merz on his China trip: curb overcapacity - or expect more EU protection in key sectors.

Unlikely to shift Beijing’s policy. But clarity about the problem is good diplomacy - and a useful signal to fellow EU member states too.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/w...

Das ist eine sehr vernünftige Entscheidung. Seit dem Wochenende ist ziemlich unklar, welche Zölle auf welcher Grundlage auf amerikanischer Seite jetzt eigentlich gelten sollen.

Für die EU ist Abwarten und Zusehen, ob Trump das Ding nicht alleine an die Wand fährt, eine ziemlich gute Strategie.

The White House Tariff Defeat Has Given Europe Lots of Ammo At first glance, very little has changed for the European Union’s terms of trade with the US following President Donald Trump’s tariff defeat at the Supreme Court on Friday. Last year the bloc agreed ...

"There’s no reason why the European Parliament should rush to rubber-stamp a deal whose justification rested on tariff powers that have been defanged."

Lionel Laurent nails it on why the EU needs to rethink its trade stance towards the US after the court ruling.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

A Matter of Solidarity: A New Approach to Revive Article 7 TEU Against Hungary Viktor Orbán increasingly undermines the EU’s collective interests. The Hungarian government systematically uses its veto powers to block Ukrainian military aid and accession negotiations and to dilu...

Perhaps a good time to bring up again our proposal with @dimitrispieker.bsky.social and Ulrich Karpenstein on how to suspend Hungary’s voting rights based on a breach of solidarity in CFSP: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...

The entire point of debating frozen assets for months was to get around Orbán’s veto.

Either Hungary moves - or that option should be back on the table.

This marks a new level of escalation by Orbán. In December, he agreed to allow the other member states to proceed with the loan through enhanced cooperation - without Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.

Hungary is vetoing a decision in which it would not even participate.

The ECB's bid to strengthen the euro's global role As dollar dominance wobbles, Europe should boost the euro’s reach, led by bolder liquidity lines from the ECB.

New piece with former fellow ECB hand @thinicemacro.bsky.social.

At the Munich Security Conference, the ECB made its geopolitical move, opening repo lines to central banks globally.

It was probably the most consequential policy announcement at the conference.

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www.cer.eu/insights/ecb...

The Industrial Accelerator Act, aimed to boost energy-intensive industries and clean tech, faces another delay. Meanwhile, energy-intensive industry continues to struggle.

I looked into the data. First, overall poor performance espc. for the chemical industry - although a small recent uptick (1/3)

BOOM. www.ft.com/content/8017...

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Join our team! We are looking for a student assistant for our work on Franco-German relations. You will be part of our Pariser Platz Dialogue team and involved in organising our flagship events in Berlin and Paris.

Deadline for application is 7 March: hertie-school.dvinci-easy.com/en/p/en/jobs...

Klingbeil zu Bundesfinanzminister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) hat eine Bevorzugung europäischer Unternehmen in einigen strategischen Wirtschaftsbereichen gegen Kritik verteidigt.

www.stern.de/news/klingbe...

Das klingt ganz gut.

Wenn Deutschland sich bei der gemeinsamen Aufsicht jetzt tatsächlich bewegt, kämen bei der Kapitalmarktunion mal weg von Sonntagsreden und hin zu echten Integrationsschritten.

Great thread of what a multi-speed Europe means in practice. It’s the key thing to come out of y’day’s informal EU summit on competitiveness: MS have given EU Commission the green light to explore different formats to move fwd on competitiveness& expect it to present a plan at March European Council

Two-speed Europe, coalitions of the willing, core Europe - all different labels currently circling in the debate for same idea that way forward is no longer at EU27.

But the how is important, and I think different people understand different things by the concept.

Quick thread on legal options:

After years of resistance, leaders finally say EU should go at different speeds Summit in Belgian castle sees governments acknowledge Europe urgently needs to change the way it functions if it’s not going to be left behind.

The idea to unblock the Single Market deepening agenda with a multi-speed approach a.k.a. Enhanced Cooperation seems extremely weird to me both in principle and politically especially if the goal is "One Market".

Here is why:

Perfect timing also to announce that AG Ćapeta will give a keynote speech at @delorsberlin.bsky.social on 27 February, followed by a panel discussion with @anabobic.bsky.social, Violeta Moreno-Lax and Mark Dawson.

Register here: invitedu.to/_prg4o

A small bombshell on rule of law conditionality from Luxembourg today: Advocate-General Capeta finds in her opinion that Commission was not allowed to unfreeze EU funds to Hungary in December 2023 and proposes that the Court of Justice annul the decision: curia.europa.eu/site/upload/...

Thread:

Worth reading.
We want long lasting competitiveness and wealth creation.
We can get both, being truth to our goals and principles.

Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.

EU Leaders meet tomorrow to discuss measures to lift Europe's anaemic growth rate. But the summit risks turning into a nothing burger.

EU Leaders have cherry-picked a macroeconomically meaningless simplification agenda from the Draghi report

New oped.

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www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Very good. I think the word for this is punchy. Also trenchant.

Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.

Tomorrow’s summit is a chance for EU leaders to stop chasing the wrong fixes — and finally sketch a response that matches the scale of Europe’s economic challenge.

Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like.

www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.

When EU leaders meet tomorrow to discuss the EU’s competitiveness agenda, they should stop chasing ghosts and confront the real problem Europe‘s economy is facing.

Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇

Preach! Friedrich Merz is spot on about the need for EU budget reform ahead of the Competitiveness Council.

If leaders can get past simplification slogans and into these kinds of serious reform debate tomorrow, this retreat could actually do some good for Europe’s economic policy discussion.

Germany’s “China Shock” Revisited Over the past year, German political leaders, central bankers, business associations, and unions have begun talking openly about the risks of a “China shock.” The rhetoric, however, has not been match...

Here's a link to the full report. Highly recommended: rhg.com/research/ger...

Also, the German car industry’s woes have sucked up most of the attention.

But another storm is brewing in machinery - the other core engine of Germany’s growth model.

Brutal chart from @noahbarkin.bsky.social and Gregor Williams. German exports to China grew for nearly two decades - and are now in free fall.

Podcast EU to go – Zwischen Krise und Kurswechsel - die EU in 2026 In der 57. Folge von EU to go sprechen Thu Nguyen und Nils Redeker darüber, was der turbulente Start ins Jahr 2026 über den Zustand der Europäischen Union verrät und welche Weichen jetzt für das gesam...

🎙️Neue Podcastfolge: Europa startet unter Druck ins Jahr 2026.

Wie handlungsfähig ist die EU?

@onethuthree.bsky.social & @nilsredeker.bsky.social sprechen darüber, was der Jahresauftakt über den Zustand der EU verrät und welche Weichen jetzt gestellt werden. www.delorscentre.eu/de/ueber-uns...

Some Europeans have still not caught up to a world profoundly shaped by Chinas industrial policy.

A lot of hard pushback on targeted buy-European because it would reduce European competitiveness and product quality.

Reality, created by China, would disagree.

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Chinas Clean-Tech allein wäre die achtgrößte Ökonomie der Welt und trug fast ein Drittel zum Wirtschaftswachstum letztes Jahr bei.