@hannanotte.bsky.social
Russia's foreign & security policy | Middle East | Director for Eurasia @JamesMartinCNS & Snr. Associate @CSIS | PhD Oxford Uni. | Berlin-based | Currently writing a book on Russia for W. W. Norton & Co. | Personal views
Fascinating reporting on Russia's efforts to preserve influence in post-Assad Syria, including:
-dangling prospect of defense cooperation
-intensified mil. activities in northeast and contacts with SDF
-contacts with remnants of old regime (for leverage)
(in Arabic)
www.majalla.com/node/326725/...
The always insightful @hannanotte.bsky.social joined me on this season's last episode of @crisisgroup.org's War & Peace podcast to discuss how Russia's role in the Middle East is & is not changing: A great ep, from implications of Iran & Syria events to the vagaries of Russian-Israeli relations.
28.07.2025 10:53 — 👍 13 🔁 7 💬 1 📌 0
Last week, on the anniversary of the Trinity Test, I was fortunate to join Nobel Laureates and colleagues from the nuclear expert community in Chicago.
Our declaration to reduce the risk of nuclear war by implementing 13 achievable recommendations: nobelassembly.org/declaration/
My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991.
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...
After research trips to over a dozen countries and many months of writing, I just sent off the finished manuscript for:
WE SHALL OUTLAST THEM
Putin's Global Campaign to Defeat the West
Out with W. W. Norton in 2026
In conversation on ABC Australia's "Saturday Extra" radio show to discuss what the Israel-Iran war meant for Russia.
www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
A pleasure to join @csis.org colleagues @maxbergmann.bsky.social & @msnegovaya.bsky.social for the Russian Roulette podcast
This week on what the recent #Israel-#Iran war (& ongoing tensions surrounding Iran) mean for #Russia - both in the Middle East & more broadly
www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...
In this week’s episode of Russian Roulette, @maxbergmann.bsky.social and I speak with the always insightful @hannanotte.bsky.social about how the recent war between Iran and Israel, along with U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, are shaping Russia’s strategy in the Middle East. Tune in today!
27.06.2025 21:57 — 👍 10 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 0
My latest column @financialtimes.com
#Russia doesn't need #Iran’s help to sustain the war in #Ukraine.
Iran’s humiliation and weakening don’t please Russia -- but domestic drone production and new alliances mean Putin can fight on.
on.ft.com/4l5O3GA
Russia no longer needs Iran’s help to sustain the war in Ukraine https://on.ft.com/44huVy6 | opinion
25.06.2025 12:49 — 👍 33 🔁 15 💬 4 📌 5
My latest column @financialtimes.com
#Russia doesn't need #Iran’s help to sustain the war in #Ukraine.
Iran’s humiliation and weakening don’t please Russia -- but domestic drone production and new alliances mean Putin can fight on.
on.ft.com/4l5O3GA
...The main thing now is to stop the aggression against nuclear facilities. And only after that can we discuss how to restore control and resume Agency inspections of nuclear material. But this issue should not be on the agenda now." /4
telegra.ph/Interview-by...
See also Russia's Deputy Perm. Rep. to IOs in Vienna:
"...we've begun to see another worrying trend: the emphasis in his (Grossi's) comments is shifting to allowing IAEA inspectors to the affected sites ASAP. We have made it clear that this is not the main thing now.../3
FM Lavrov made the point in Moscow yesterday, asking:
"Are there any guarantees that this will not leak? I do not see such guarantees."
He goes on to call what's happening Western pressure on the secretariats of international organizations. /2
t.me/ImpNavigator...
As a precarious Israel-Iran ceasefire takes hold & concerns shift to what's left of #Iran's nuclear program & HEU, #Russia rejects Western pressure on #Iran to now immediately provide access to #IAEA inspectors to its nuclear facilities, so they can verify where its HEU is. 🧵
25.06.2025 07:56 — 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
Join our next #MorningBriefing on Thursday! Together w/
@joerglau.bsky.social, @hannanotte.bsky.social & András Rácz, @stoeckmannjan.bsky.social will unpack the geopolitical implications of the conflict in the Middle East, focusing especially on 🇮🇷-🇷🇺 relations & 🇷🇺’s war against 🇺🇦.
buff.ly/ZJ4nZor
The very first reactions from #Russia to the US bombing #Iran #nuclear facilities can be summed up as:
“Thank God we have nuclear weapons”
This event will likely propel Russia's efforts to further strengthen its own nuclear coercive credibility for deterrence and compellence
To me it seems Russia:
-has no intention to step up mil. assistance to Iran at this time
-is criticising Israel much less stridently in this conflict compared to #Gaza war
-is carefully balancing btw Iran & Israel/US
-wants to retain potential for role in prospective talks
/END
He says Russia insisted on the safety of its personnel in Bushehr, and then: "I want to say that Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed with this and President Trump promised to support our legitimate demand. Isn't this support for Iran? In my opinion, it is direct support."
/5
Otherwise, Putin insists several times that Russia *is* helping Iran - he references the Russian specialists on the ground at the Bushehr nuclear power plant, Russia's support for Iran's right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, Russia's position at the UN in that regard.
/4
In response to those expecting Russia to do more for Iran, he says:
"What more? To start some kind of military operations - is that it? We are already conducting military operations with those whom we consider opponents, ... those who pose a threat to the Russian Federation"
/3
-He goes on to say that each conflict is "unique", points to large Russian-speaking diaspora in Israel
-He says Russia "developed v. good, trusting, friendly & allied (!) relations with the Arab & Islamic world" as a whole, before noting "certain friendly relations with Iran" /2
Worth looking at #Putin remarks about #Russia and #Israel-#Iran at #SPIEF2025 in full - they reveal a lot about his current thinking:
-He says that "those who promote ... narratives about Russia's unreliability as an ally are provocateurs"
🧵
Backing the most anti-Western Middle Eastern power was convenient—until it wasn’t, @hannanotte.bsky.social writes:
20.06.2025 00:15 — 👍 72 🔁 18 💬 7 📌 0
Backing the most anti-Western Middle Eastern power was convenient—until it wasn’t, @hannanotte.bsky.social writes:
18.06.2025 17:45 — 👍 64 🔁 13 💬 7 📌 3
Why Isn’t #Russia Defending #Iran?
Russia is not happy about Iran’s humiliation at the hands of Israel, a US ally.
But when it comes to shaping events far from its borders, Russia is only so able.
My essay in @theatlantic.com
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Backing the most anti-Western Middle Eastern power was convenient—until it wasn’t, @hannanotte.bsky.social writes:
18.06.2025 13:30 — 👍 69 🔁 13 💬 9 📌 0
Why Isn’t #Russia Defending #Iran?
Russia is not happy about Iran’s humiliation at the hands of Israel, a US ally.
But when it comes to shaping events far from its borders, Russia is only so able.
My essay in @theatlantic.com
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Putin hat Grund, mit Sorge auf die Angriffe gegen Iran zu blicken, sagt @hannanotte.bsky.social . Konkrete Auswirkungen auf seinen Krieg gegen die Ukraine habe ein Waffenlieferstopp aus Teheran aber wohl vorerst nicht. Die ganze Analyse bei @tagesspiegel.de : www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...
16.06.2025 17:27 — 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
