Andrew King (he/him)

Changes are brewing in the Indian Ocean. Does this mean Australia should get ready for a soggy spring? What do the next few months hold, weather-wise? For clues, we can look to the oceans around Australia.

I take a look at how spring is shaping up for Australia and the possible negative Indian Ocean Dipole event taking shape theconversation.com/changes-are-...

Lots of news articles today about recent cold weather and the cold July in parts of Australia, e.g. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08.... It's worth noting though that it was still warmer than historical (1961-1990) averages even in Western Australia which had its coldest July since 2012

Interdisciplinary challenges for wildfire futures Wildfire has shaped many ecosystems across Earth, and humans have in turn shaped fire and its interactions within a range of socio-ecological systems.…

New paper out! This is a big, interdisciplinary reflection on the types of challenges that are likely to come our way in the context of wildfires in the next 50 years. Was fun to write this one. authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

I think also there's a lot of misunderstanding in the report of how science works. It's expected that studies will build on each other and statements revised as knowledge grows.

A great summary of a report with so many holes and so much cherry-picking it's hard to know where to begin! Thanks @benmsanderson.bsky.social

The flooding of the Guadalupe River in Texas was undoubtedly made worse because of climate change. I would estimate that there was 7-20% more rainfall than w/o the human interference in the climate. But w/o detailed attribution studies on the storm and associated runoff, we can't know for certain.

Enhancing communication of climate changes under net zero emissions - Communications Earth & Environment Much of the public discourse around climate changes under net zero carbon dioxide emissions has been focused on global mean temperature changes after emissions cessation. More attention needs to be pa...

In our new paper we discuss how communication of post-net zero climate changes needs to improve and go much further than global average temperature @chrisd-jones.bsky.social @sarahinscience.bsky.social @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s43...

⚠️ Scientists urge eastern Australia to plan for more dangerous floods as climate warms

A rapid study by @wwattribution.bsky.social found the wettest 4-day rainfall events in a year are about 10% more intense in NSW compared to the preindustrial climate 🧵

ow.ly/ylh350W3iBO

🚨 New paper alert! 🧪

🔥 How would heat extremes in Europe evolve under long-term net-zero emissions?

Find out in our ERL article, co-written with @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and Tilo Tiehn

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Here’s a quick summary (1/n) 🧵

NSW is copping rain and flooding while parts of Australia are in drought. What’s going on? In some areas of NSW, more than 200 mm of rain has fallen in 24 hours. At the same time, dry conditions have gripped much of the continent.

Australia is experiencing both severe flooding from record rains and a significant drought at the same time. Andrew Dowdy and I take a look at what's happening theconversation.com/nsw-is-coppi...

Just one more week to apply for this PhD project! Details below

Evolution of Heat Extremes Under Net‐Zero CO2 Emissions Scaling of temperature extremes relative to global warming level after net-zero CO2 emissions is less than scaling during warming climates Temperature extreme scaling reductions after net-zero CO...

Well done to PhD student Liam Cassidy on a new paper examining projected changes in heat extremes under net zero CO2 emissions and causes of uncertainties at the regional scale. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

It’s almost winter. Why is Australia still so hot? Why is it so warm across southern Australia this autumn? Where’s the rain? ‘Blocking’ high pressure systems are to blame, but the real culprit is climate change.

Much of Australia is having a remarkably warm autumn. Here I discuss the main drivers of the unseasonable heat and what's in the outlook. theconversation.com/its-almost-w...

Details of PhD project on projected climate changes under net zero emissions and overshoot pathways. Get in touch with any questions here or via email (andrew.king@unimelb.edu.au)

I'm excited to be advertising a PhD project on climate change projections under net zero emissions and overshoot scenarios! Applications close 23rd May.

Aerial view of an industrial area with smokestacks emitting smoke beside a river at sunset. Photo credit: Getty Images via Unsplash.

Large-scale greenhouse gas reductions will take time to return most of Earth to pre-industrial climates, a study in #AMSJCli suggests. Several decades later, only a few areas are likely to “de-emerge” say authors @hunterdouglas.bsky.social, @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social et al.

More: bit.ly/43tA4nQ

Scientific diagram summarising the causes of drought development, intensification, and termination in Australia. The graphic shows that drought development and intensification is associated with El Nino and positive IPO conditions in the Pacific Ocean, positive IOD conditions in the Indian Ocean, reduced onshore moisture transport, high pressure systems over south-eastern and south-western Australia, dry MJO phases, and wind-evaporation feedbacks - with all affected by anthropogenic forcing. Drought termination is associated with La Nina and negative IPO conditions in the Pacific Ocean, negative IOD conditions in the Indian Ocean, enhanced onshore moisture transport, cut-off low weather systems in south-eastern Australia, monsoon lows in north-western Australia, and wet MJO phases - with all affected by anthropogenic forcing.

Out today: our comprehensive review of Australian droughts.

It covers the nature and drivers of drought development, intensification & termination - and how those are changing with climate change.

www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Although global mean temperature has cooled down slightly with respect to March 20th, it's now three days in a row (March 20th- 22nd) with unprecedented record temperatures for those days of the year 🌡️🌍🌊

Credit: C3S/ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social

Come work with us at the ANU on the role of resolution in setting the mean state and variability. This is a great opportunity to be part of the @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social

ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making Abstract. Climate changes under net zero emissions will take many centuries to play out, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere and in the ocean and cryosphere. New millennial-length Earth System Mod...

In this open review paper with @climatenerilie.bsky.social , @edualastrue.bsky.social and Tilo Ziehn we argue that the slow nature of some changes in the climate necessitate longer model projections at net zero emissions. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

Climate Stabilisation Under Net Zero CO2 Emissions Temperature stabilization does not occur immediately after net zero CO2 emissions at both the global and local levels The global mean temperature stabilizes 124 years after the cessation of emiss...

Happy to be a very small contributor to this nice paper from UniMelb student Alex and supervisors @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and @drjobrown.bsky.social well done Alex!

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Flooding in the Sahara, Amazon tributaries drying and warming tipping over 1.5°C – 2024 broke all the wrong records The atmosphere now has the highest carbon dioxide levels in the last 800,000 years – and global heat records have toppled yet again. Coincidence? Of course not

In this article @lindenashcroft.bsky.social and I look at the latest WMO report on the climate in 2024. In a nutshell- the climate is moving further away from its pre-industrial state because of our greenhouse gas emissions. We need to get to net zero ASAP theconversation.com/flooding-in-...

EGU abstract on "Detection and communication of climate changes under net zero emissions"

I'm looking forward to attending my second @egu.eu meeting next month! I'll be presenting on how we detect and communicate global and local climate changes under different net zero emissions pathways. Hope to meet many new and familiar faces! meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

There are many individual stories from the mass layoffs in NOAA and NWS that are so sad to read. This mass firing is incredibly short-sighted and will have dangerous consequences. It will set back progress in atmospheric science and weather forecasting not only in the US but globally.

Awful news. I'm so sorry to see this.

🚨 First PhD paper in @pnas.org 🥳

🌊 @edualastrue.bsky.social and I looked at how much less CO2 will be taken up by the ocean if the #AMOC weakens - and how this reduced ocean carbon uptake affects the social cost of CO2 emissions.

📝 Read the paper here: doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

🧵 A thread [1/11]

Earth is already shooting through the 1.5°C global warming limit, two major studies show Earth is crossing the 1.5°C limit outlined in the Paris Agreement, beyond which scientists predict catastrophic harm to systems supporting life on our planet.

"Put simply, we are not even moving in the right direction, let alone at the required pace."

Nice summary from @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social for @theconversation.com on new research that kinda states the obvious - we've arrived at 1.5C (and we're not stopping there).

A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit - Nature Climate Change What a first year with temperature 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial baseline implies for long-term temperature goals is unclear. Here the authors show that such a first year above the baseline is highl...

In Nature Climate Change, we show that a year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit. @natclimchange.bsky.social

Our study into why 2022 was so wet in Eastern Australia is now published (open access).This was a combined effort from 19 mostly ECRs to understand the meso, synoptic and planetary scale drivers of this remarkable year.

journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Two weeks later. This is exactly why La Nina thresholds need to be met for multiple weeks before declaring a La Nina.

Alex loves doing her PhD, but says she's earning under the minimum wage Alexandra Paton, who researches how to manage feral cat populations, says her PhD is important for Australia's wildlife but her income is lower than what she earned as a teenager at Macca's.

If Australia wants to keep pace with other countries (let alone be a leader in science and innovation) then clearly this needs to change. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01...