Mike Talbot

A new co-authored research paper on "Rain-on-snow (ROS) based flooding" got published recently. We showed how ROS events contribute to actual flooding and identified the causal structure leading to ROS floods in different regions of the globe.

Paper link: doi.org/10.1016/j.jh...

Hydrologists face an incredibly difficult task: communicating statistics about streamflow that defy both intuition and the lived memory of a community. But helping people understand that risk (even when it's invisible) might be our most important job.

Properly managing the floodplain is a societal good, not an example of government overreach. The single most effective way to keep people out of the way of a flood is to keep them out of the floodplain.

There are many factors involved in making the recent Texas flood so deadly, but one I haven't seen much in the discussion is land use deregulation. This is the kind of thing we can expect to happen in a world where we allow businesses to do whatever they want, wherever they want.

I wish people would stop describing things that are indisputably provable as a matter of fact as "controversial." People not liking a fact doesn't mean the fact is controversial. Reality is not malleable around our beliefs and it shouldn't be. We need to stop acting like it is.

Show Your Stripes Visualising how the climate has changed for every country across the globe

showyourstripes.info/s/northameri...

I just saw a good example of what I was talking about with chatgpt being a crackpot generating machine.

A guy had started Wheeler's Spacetime Physics, and had a problem on page 2.

Wheeler expressed a square root as a power of 1/2.

√a = a^1/2. This is basic algebra, not physics.

I just have to say, as a historian of the Reconstruction-era Klan, that masked paramilitaries are very bad and masked vigilantes are even worse and there are causal links between the two and none of this is good for democracy.

Is “abundance” basically “development” with a glow-up?

What does it mean to talk about development when the Trump administration is basically on a project of reversing development?

and how should we be talking about “development” in 2025, anyway?

new article:

www.compactmag.com/article/the-...

Drowning Doesn’t Look Like Drowning Drowning is not the violent, splashing call for help that most people expect.

Thanks for the reminder @janemunday.bsky.social. Every summer, I repost this article DROWNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE DROWNING. To date, I know of FOUR kids who were saved after someone who'd clicked on the link learnt how to spot actual drowning. Take time to read and pass on.

slate.com/technology/2...

The amount of AI slop on LinkedIn is so unreal, you can now read a post written by AI featuring a misleading photo created by AI, commented on by hundreds of users automating their online presence with AI tools.

What could be more devoid of real value?

E.P.A. Plans to Reconsider a Ban on Cancer-Causing Asbestos

OFFS.

☠️☠️

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/u...

The root that tears apart your foundation begins as a seed of distrust, hate, and blame.

The seed that grew into a dictatorship in Europe didn’t arrive overnight.

It started with everyday Germans mad about inflation and looking for someone to blame.

It makes my day when I get an aggressive bus driver who owns the road. Show those cars who's boss, m'man.

Jonathan Frame is looking for PhD students and a PostDoc at his new group at UoA. If you want to work at the intersection of Earth Sciences / Hydrology and Deep Learning or also modeling in more general, go checkout the postings at

dualearth.github.io/opportunitie...

Reposts appreciated.

The units you choose to use when presenting your results are even more important than you might think. Here I use the acre-foot as a case study in why it's worth giving it some extra consideration.

miketalbot.io/posts/2024-1...

I can see that. You probably also go down a lot more dead ends (reminds me of how I learned networking by building a server, and all the time I spent recovering from mistakes or following bad Reddit advice)

I'll gladly share any resources I come across 😎

I can't say for sure that this will work since I haven't tried yet, but my plan for doing this myself is to follow the same logic I used to teach myself to code: find a project and grind through it, one step at a time. I want to build components of a weather station...

I started running again in 2024 for the first time in 9 years. I can definitely improve upon this in 2025, but it just feels good to be back at it.

All I want for Christmas is a fully automated weather station with a heated weighing gage and an Alter shield. Is that so much to ask for?

Removing Carbon From the Sky Could Be the Next Climate Gold Rush Investors are betting that they can make a dent in global warming, and healthy profits, with companies that alter the atmosphere.

Nothing quite so clearly describes corrupt capitalism as the idea that the companies responsible for disastrous #climate disruption are now trying to profit from technologies they claim will solve it.

The New Climate Gold Rush: Scrubbing Carbon From the Sky www.nytimes.com/2024/12/22/c...

I took exactly one selfie at #AGU24 and it was with an F-1 rocket engine. My 12-year-old self would be quite happy.

Map shows highest transmission in Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Massachusetts.

Map of U.S. Covid transmission, per CDC data.

Bear in mind that reporting lags mean transmission has had 7 days to get worse.

Approximately 1 in 64 Americans are now actively infectious. 💉💪😷

There's a reason my dogs were barking on Friday after leaving #AGU24

Screencap of post from drwielicki.bsky.social reading "Is this science or a corporate HR workshop? 'Weaving Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility into the Fabric of Polar and Alpine Sciences' - because nothing says cutting-edge research like systemic barriers and ripple effects. How did we get here? #AGU24 #AGU2024" with a screencap of a session with that title on the AGU program website

If anyone is looking for someone to block, I was cruising the #AGU24 feed and found that grifter who uses ChatGPT to write a paid-subscription climate denial newsletter with fake citations. Unsurprisingly, guys peddling science denial also complain when scientists want to be treated with respect:

Come see me at my poster Friday morning

agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/me...

As a lifelong peacenik my position is always where there is violence you must search for the seeds of the violence. Handwringing about the death of a CEO and public reaction to it doesn’t confront the extreme violence of that CEO and his company or the American healthcare system.