Oswald

I don’t know too many Waymo skeptics who have stayed that way after their first ride, but we have gone from a generation of tech whose consumer surplus is so immediate and obvious that people have forgotten what it’s like to market tech without it.

Think this is roughly right, but the OS models also get some low end SMB-like use cases.

Totally agree, software underperformance is a big deal

2026 Predictions:

* Consumer preferences will go from hostile to only mildly negative for AI in media/outputs.

* The Year of AI Psychosis

* We’ll keep ascending AI benchmarks, keep hyperbolizing, and keep wondering why it doesn’t quite get the job done.

Perhaps thats not useless.

Think it’s implicit in many views that sees LLMs doing things where certainty of execution and execution profile is super important.

My keys are valuable because I know the lock will 100% open when I turn it. If not, I know how to fix it. If I introduce an LLM to my lock, what do I gain?

A few observations on AI that have been interesting to me:
* A significant rise in engineers calling the recent models AGI.

* A general investor reluctance to admit there’s a bubble, even though most of the industry admit one

* The implication that there’s no value in deterministic processes.

Every now and then I see this chart and think “huh, they just kinda put it all out there on a quarterly basis, don’t they?”

“We’ll see how [obviously bad thing] turns out in the data” is such a good online position to always hold because it lets you be both incredibly pompous and so late to everything that you can pretend “but that’s obvious” when you turn out to be wrong.

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Do not say this in polite company

A brain fully imprisoned by the Laffer curve and handcuffed by tax policy.

Reversing tariffs will be the *easiest* of the tasks ahead for the next president.

Lindsey Graham wining about Norges selling CAT

Selling an equity stake in an American business is a punishment, and not something that a foreign investor can do without consequence.

Thank god for this pro-business environment.

“It’s Joe’s conspiracy to rehabilitate this woman’s legacy and sanewash overreaching political actors to suit his agenda”

Joe:

The serious person take on all this is that somehow SCOTUS and other institutions thought the Fed would somehow still be off limits? There was an implicit bet or bargain?

C’mon. You’ll be marks until your last day.

What makes you say that? Def seems to be doing fine but thought their trade down effects + unique tariff situation might make them unique for 2H.

A few things in the org structure here stick out as strange to me. It’s beginning to seem like Zuck promised each of these major hires their own fiefdom, and they’re more likely to go to war than accomplish their goals.

It’s silly to believe for one part of the Presidio but not for the other? If it’s worth conserving in part, why keep the built part instead of expand the park?

Yes, but only because I found Old Faithful really disappointing.

Presuming conservation is important to both of us, we don’t get to ascribe value to places that have already been deemed essential to conserve forever (basically).

To us, the Presidio and Muir are different projects, but they might not be to future generations. Protecting one is protecting another.

I’m thrilled that you’re excited to make that distinction, I’m sorry you misunderstood.

No conflation at all, I feel this way about all NPS land regardless of its designation.

Sorry you don’t appreciate relics of American Capitalism, but I do, and “unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations” is cut and dry.

The Yoda statue with have same reverence as Old Faithful in 2100 and our grandkids will thank us for not giving an inch when it comes to conservation.

One crank belief I have great fondness for is 10 years of jail time for endorsing development on national park land

Trump’s lasting legacy will be America’s transition to state capitalism, and embrace of authoritarian measures to safeguard it.

We’ll have no push back from the normal free enterprise crew, as long as they’re promised a place on top of the plebs in hierarchy…until we have a new president.

Accidentally making ourselves into China because we were scared of becoming Denmark

Spoke with a patent lawyer on an unrelated topic and he told me:

“I know it sounds crazy but I tell clients to never, under any circumstances, discuss the contents of a potential patent with an LLM”

Tbh I’m surprised that this is settling out with revisions from the *supplier’s* side.

“Verdun has to be here somewhere”

oh god oh fuck