Claudia Sahm

A Curious Kind of Cycle Today’s post is an excerpt of a talk I gave last week at the Forecasters Club of New York.

In evaluating today's "curious kind of balance" in the labor market, we need to put it in the context of the many curiosities of the labor market during this cycle.

That's part of the reason why I do not see a recessionary dynamic now ...

stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-curious-...

Being grateful and grumpy is perfectly understandable (and relatable). Wonderful that you are cancer free again. And yes, good point about benefiting from the advances in treatments.

It's amazing how much airtime 'talking your dot' can fill.

I modified the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, creating 3.2k spacial Sahm Rules, which show that #recession exposure can differ by place/time.

The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.

Zandi must be using the distributional financial accounts which are like a quarterly version of the SCF. www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/...

The BLS/BEA estimates of consumer spending by income are much less skewed toward the highest income than the Moody's estimate. www.bea.gov/data/special.... Still skewed. While series is shorter, 2004-2022, the upward drift in top share is less clear.

hard to see any reaction to the government shutdown in the Michigan Survey ... typically such dysfunction leaves an imprint. of course, views were already quite downbeat.

It’s a good reason not to hold up the cola. Nice to hear.

Any word on the collection for October CPI? Delay in publishing estimates is a problem; missing the data to do an estimate is an even bigger one.

SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay

The Fed minutes may hint at what's next for interest rates The minutes are dry, but they contain clues about what the central bank might do next.

"“At a moment like this, as complicated as monetary policy is, if everybody were in agreement, I would actually be worried that they're missing something,” Sahm said." .... Looking forward to the FOMC minutes tomorrow. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...

The President could have designated a handful of BLS employees essential and given us the September employment report today. Instead, we got this ...

What Happens if the Fed is Compromised — ft. Claudia Sahm — Prof G Markets Ed and Scott are joined by Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed Section Chief, for a conversation on the Fed’s independence. Claudia weighs in on the health of the U.S....

The @profgalloway.com Markets podcast interviews @claudia-sahm.bsky.social for a take on Fed independence and market reactions overcast.fm/+ABIYtSt8U4I

They get the ADP micro data and estimate their own series.

"Economists stress that the Fed is not flying blind. Sahm said a better description was that the central bank is driving with a dirty windshield.

“They will find ways to bring information in. They have navigated shutdowns before. They will make the best of what they have,” she said."

Slow down and protect things: Fed independence and the Supreme Court The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court.

"The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court."
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/slow-down-...

Tenure protections are critical to Fed independence. The White House argued that the president can define "cause" for firing without judicial review. If the Supreme Court had found that reasoning ironclad, Cook would've been removed. We might still end up with weak tenure protections, but not today!

Today's decision doesn't end the threats to Fed independence, far from it, but it does slow down the attacks and lowers odds of some worst case scenarios.

For example, Trump won't have a loyalist majority early next year when the Reserve Bank Presidents reviewed. Powell less likely to be fired.

THIS IS VERY VERY GOOD NEWS.

White House withdraws Antoni’s nomination to lead BLS | CNN Politics The White House has sent paperwork to the Senate to withdraw the nomination of E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, three sources told CNN.

Wow! This is a welcome surprise.

www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...

How does the Fed selling assets raise their price (lower the yield)?

Miran’s Case for Cuts: A Reminder of Why Independence is Essential Stephen Miran's recent speech highlights not just a debate over r*, but the deeper risks of allowing White House talking points to shape monetary policy.

New post, I finally wrote my thoughts on the Stephen Miran Federal Reserve speech.

I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive.
mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...

I'm not sure how to read it other than making a commitment to lower rates -- data willing or not -- is the playbook.

The Fed is in a time of transition and it's worthwhile listening to people like Bowman and Miran, especially where their views are outside the current norms at the Fed.

Similar to Miran (and Bessent) in my post, Bowman, in her speech last week, had an anti-data vibe. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

JOLTS preview:

1/ Unless we avert a government shutdown, tomorrow morning's JOLTS release (August) will be the last major government update on the labor market for a while.

We saw a teeny bit of hiring softness in June/July, but...

This season of The Apprentice is getting really old.

"Waller offers continuity in the data-driven approach to monetary policy, even though his current views are slightly more dovish than most Fed officials. While a Trump nominee, Waller doesn't have close ties to the administration. For all those reasons, he is unlikely to be chosen." My two cents.

FT survey is not an outlier. Near unanimous support for Waller in survey of former Fed officials and staff. econ.duke.edu/news/new-sur...

FT poll

And I thought we were supposed to ignore the Twitter trolls.