Tim Jones

There are so many climate-related disasters that upend the lives of entire communities or regions while scarcely registering in the places most responsible for them.

Starting a running thread of these increasingly-frequent events

Borrowing from private creditors: blessing or curse? Evidence from the unfolding sovereign debt crisis - Journal of Economics and Finance Journal of Economics and Finance - The aim of the study is twofold. First, although numerous empirical studies examine how overall debt levels and macroeconomic factors influence default...

Indunil de Silva finds debt problems increase the more is owed to external private lenders:

"reducing reliance on expensive private market borrowing in favor of official ... financing is essential for debt sustainability in developing economies"

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Brazil borrowing in USD at 6.25% for 10 years, and 7.25% for 30 years. Seems quite pricey.

so a month ago I was reading @markpackuk.bsky.social’s speech on Twitter in the lords and there were obviously fake stats the government used to justify Twitter’s UK reach and its continued importance to British audiences

Rob has now found the source of the data was… Twitter

This is precisely why we need debt legislation in key jurisdictions like the UK and New York, and why we need a broader process to reform the debt architecture, including debt resolution rules and restructuring mechanism ... this is through a UN framework convention on sovereign debt!

Reaction from Debt Justice to bondholders suing Ethiopia - Debt Justice Official creditors were right to reject deal, the UK now needs to pass legislation to protect Ethiopia from legal action

Vulture funds are suing Ethiopia in London. They are demanding far more in debt payments than other creditors such as France and China. We need a Debt Justice Law now.

debtjustice.org.uk/news/reactio...

Bondholders seeking massive profits from Ethiopian ‘debt relief’ - Debt Justice Bondholders are pushing to get paid over 50% more than Ethiopia’s government creditors. These proposals could lead to bondholders making 100% profit.

Ethiopia's bondholders are trying to get paid 50% more than government creditors. This would mean they'd make 100% profit after 'debt relief'.

New research by us and Afrodad:

debtjustice.org.uk/press-releas...

What do the IMF and the World Bank owe Senegal ? There are exceptions to the rule that “Un mauvais arrangement vaut mieux qu’un bon procès »

This from John MacIntyre on the track record of the WB and IMF in Senegal, and Mackey Sal's administration, is blistering.

open.substack.com/pub/johnmcin...

Peter Doyle Tribute to a good salty man

An obituary to the IMF's chief nemesis and a lovely caring man, Peter Doyle . Thanks to my co-author and substack host @generaltheorist.bsky.social

moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/peter-doyle

Sri Lanka counts cyclone cost as toll hits 465 Sri Lankan authorities said Wednesday they would need some $7 billion to rebuild homes, industries and roads destroyed by Cyclone Ditwah, which has left at least 465 people dead so far.Hopes have fade...

Sri Lanka: "Our initial estimate is that we will need about six to seven billion dollars for the reconstruction," said Prabath Chandrakeerthi, the Commissioner-General of Essential Services who is leading the massive recovery effort." #Ditwah sg.news.yahoo.com/sri-lanka-co...

MMT matters because it reveals power – and gives us back the right to choose I think modern monetary theory (MMT) matters. That is not because it is perfect, because no theory is. Instead, it is because it explains something that almost no one in mainstream economics has ever ...

This stuff really is snake oil. Would be a great shame if @zackpolanski.bsky.social fell for it. Politically it’s a one way ticket to nowhere. Important under current circumstances to have an articulate and credible voice on the left. Zack needs to steer clear.
www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2025/11...

We’re joining @BigGive's #ChristmasChallenge!

That means from TODAY until 9 December, you can make double the difference with one donation!

Help win debt justice for millions around the world: donate.biggive.org/campaign/a05...

#ChristmasChallenge #BG25 #GivingTuesday

UBS Charged in Switzerland Over Credit Suisse ‘Tuna Bonds’ Scandal The charges are the latest in a saga that started around 2013, when Credit Suisse arranged debt deals for state-owned companies in Mozambique.

"In this round, it isn’t Credit Suisse’s lending in question, but how it handled payments coming into a Credit Suisse client account from Mozambique’s Finance Ministry." www.wsj.com/finance/ubs-...

Senegal: "Finance Minister Cheikh Diba told parliament that Senegal needed a "very large amount" of financing totalling 6,000 billion CFA francs ($10.60 billion) annually on average ..."

Welfare spending is currently 1.2% of GDP *lower* than in 2012-13.

Abolition of two-child cap is best viewed as a correction than an increase.

African Union chair calls for fairer debt restructuring tools at summit with EU
www.reuters.com/world/africa...

Sound analysis and rational economics from Tim Jones.

Senegal: well that escalated quickly. Another big sell-off today means the 2031 bond has gone from over 80 cents to 67 cents on the dollar in the past month.

France is perhaps once again about to contemplate how you restructure a country's debt inside a euro currency union...

This week has seen some horrendous interest rates being charged by private lenders of global south governments:

Republic of Congo: 13.7%
Laos: 11.25%
Nigeria: 8.6% and 9.1%

Thanks!

When you say the off-market yield is 13.7%, is this the actually interest rate faced by Congo? ie, was the amount borrowed less than the face value of $670m?

In other frontier sovereign debt news... Republic of Congo issued its first eurobond since 2007. Actually an off-market placement to investors with a yield of 13.7% - which I think may be an African eurobond record at the point of issuance. Coupon of 9.875%. www.finances.gouv.cg/sites/defaul...

Private lenders continue to demand crazy interest rates from lower-income countries

Hurricane Melissa will cost Jamaica at least $6bn. Much of the damage will be paid for through loans. Jamaica already spends over 20% of government revenue on external debt payments

www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Zambia needs to restructure its entire debt to improve credit rating – StanChart - Zambia: News Diggers!

Standard Chartered says Zambia needs to restructure all its debt. Any guesses which bank has not announced it has restructured Zambia's debt yet?

Yes, Standard Chartered...

diggers.news/business/202...

How the west can stop the global south being strangled by debt | Heather Stewart Labour would do well to remember its manifesto promise to revive Britain’s global leadership on development

“Debt relief is taking far too long and leaving countries at high risk of debt crisis. The UK must use its likely presidency of the G20 in 2027 to champion major changes, including deeper and quicker debt relief” - @tim-jones6.bsky.social in the Guardian

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

But they must be considered as a piggy bank to repay private creditors that made a bad bet but refuse to take the loss.

Today's ministerial declaration on debt sustainability falls far short of what is needed to tackle the worst debt crisis the world has ever seen.

We are extremely disappointed to see nothing new in the #G20's Declaration on #debt today, which reiterates limited & ineffective tools like the #CommonFramework over support of real reforms at a more inclusive forum, like the #UN.
Read our full reaction ➡️ www.eurodad.org/g20_statemen...

Ethiopia and Bondholders Fail to Reach Deal on Defaulted Debt Talks between Ethiopia’s government and holders of a $1 billion defaulted bond collapsed after both sides agreed to terminate the discussions without an agreement.

#Ethiopia's lenders could be about to sue the country in the British courts - after refusing a restructuring deal which would have made them significant profits.

We need a debt justice law to protect countries in debt crisis from being sued in London

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

BREAKING: We're in the news

“By denying debt relief for countries that need it, the #IMF is acting as a debt collector for rich and powerful creditors" - Heidi Chow

It's time to hold @IMFNews accountable.

#StopTheHarm #CancelTheDebt

www.theguardian.com/business/202...