Tim Jones

This week has seen some horrendous interest rates being charged by private lenders of global south governments:

Republic of Congo: 13.7%
Laos: 11.25%
Nigeria: 8.6% and 9.1%

Thanks!

When you say the off-market yield is 13.7%, is this the actually interest rate faced by Congo? ie, was the amount borrowed less than the face value of $670m?

In other frontier sovereign debt news... Republic of Congo issued its first eurobond since 2007. Actually an off-market placement to investors with a yield of 13.7% - which I think may be an African eurobond record at the point of issuance. Coupon of 9.875%. www.finances.gouv.cg/sites/defaul...

Private lenders continue to demand crazy interest rates from lower-income countries

Hurricane Melissa will cost Jamaica at least $6bn. Much of the damage will be paid for through loans. Jamaica already spends over 20% of government revenue on external debt payments

www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Zambia needs to restructure its entire debt to improve credit rating – StanChart - Zambia: News Diggers!

Standard Chartered says Zambia needs to restructure all its debt. Any guesses which bank has not announced it has restructured Zambia's debt yet?

Yes, Standard Chartered...

diggers.news/business/202...

How the west can stop the global south being strangled by debt | Heather Stewart Labour would do well to remember its manifesto promise to revive Britain’s global leadership on development

“Debt relief is taking far too long and leaving countries at high risk of debt crisis. The UK must use its likely presidency of the G20 in 2027 to champion major changes, including deeper and quicker debt relief” - @tim-jones6.bsky.social in the Guardian

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

But they must be considered as a piggy bank to repay private creditors that made a bad bet but refuse to take the loss.

Today's ministerial declaration on debt sustainability falls far short of what is needed to tackle the worst debt crisis the world has ever seen.

We are extremely disappointed to see nothing new in the #G20's Declaration on #debt today, which reiterates limited & ineffective tools like the #CommonFramework over support of real reforms at a more inclusive forum, like the #UN.
Read our full reaction ➡️ www.eurodad.org/g20_statemen...

Ethiopia and Bondholders Fail to Reach Deal on Defaulted Debt Talks between Ethiopia’s government and holders of a $1 billion defaulted bond collapsed after both sides agreed to terminate the discussions without an agreement.

#Ethiopia's lenders could be about to sue the country in the British courts - after refusing a restructuring deal which would have made them significant profits.

We need a debt justice law to protect countries in debt crisis from being sued in London

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

BREAKING: We're in the news

“By denying debt relief for countries that need it, the #IMF is acting as a debt collector for rich and powerful creditors" - Heidi Chow

It's time to hold @IMFNews accountable.

#StopTheHarm #CancelTheDebt

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

20 billion dollar US Treasury + Fed bailout for Argentina's Javier Milei. Cui Bono? "Funds at investment firms including BlackRock, Fidelity and Pimco are heavily invested in Argentina, as are investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Robert Citrone, both of whom worked with Mr. Bessent."

Kenya's recent Eurobonds were sold at an issue price less than 100 (so Kenya received less they now owe).

This means the actual interest rates Kenya is paying are 8.2% and 9.4% on the 8- and 13-year bonds. (Rather than the headline 7.875% and 8.8%).

Reform UK’s ex-leader in Wales Nathan Gill pleads guilty to bribery charges Gill admits to eight charges while an elected member of the European parliament

🚨 BREAKING: The former leader of Reform UK in Wales, Nathan Gill, has pleaded guilty to #bribery, admitting he received corrupt payments as a Brexit Party MEP in exchange for making statements in the European Parliament to promote Russia’s interests in #Ukraine.

Suriname Wants to Refinance Its Debt Before Oil Revenue Flows Suriname’s new government is in talks with bondholders and multilateral lenders, seeking to refinance its dollar bonds to ease its debt servicing burden over the next two years.

This is so depressing - Suriname restructured its debt in December 2023. The deal involved minimal debt relief from bondholders. Suriname is already struggling with the high external debt payments (averaging 23% of government revenue 2025-2030) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bessent says US in talks with Argentina over $20bn swap line Proposed measure comes as Trump administration seeks to support Javier Milei’s libertarian government

Trump's Argentine bail out could set up biggest sovereign story of the decade. If Argentina defaults despite the bail out, Trump will want seniority, but IMF cant give it. You can imagine how this descends into a colossal row between IMF and its biggest shareholder www.ft.com/content/4127...

1. What is the Treasury Department’s criteria for determining whether an ally is “systemically important”? 2. What is the impact of Argentina’s financial market turmoil on American jobs, workers’ wages, and U.S. financial stability? Please provide evidence of any such impact. 3. Please provide the Administration’s legal analysis that deploying the ESF to bail out Argentina’s financial markets complies with the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. 4. President Milei thanked you and President Trump for “unconditional support.”12 a. What is the scale and conditionality of the U.S. financial support currently under consideration? b. What is the expected cost to the U.S. taxpayer? 5. Have any hedge funds or other market participants reached out to you, or any other Administration officials, advocating for intervention in Argentina’s financial markets? If so, please provide a list of the market participants and a description of the conversations. 6. What communication, if any, has the Treasury Department had with President Milei or officials from the Argentinian government regarding the current state of Argentina’s financial markets? Please provide a list of individuals with whom the Department has communicated and a description of the conversations.

Elizabeth Warren has some questions for Scott Bessent on the US bailout in the works for Argentina. www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...

That gap.

32% see immigration as one of the most important issues facing Britain — more than any other issue.

Just 4% see it as something that's important in their own life — one of the lowest shares, and a fraction of the numbers for inflation or the NHS.

Sarah Champion MP, Chair of the International Development Committee, says she is "deeply disappointed" at the lack of progress on global debt reform. In a letter to the UK government she says it is in a uniquely powerful position to drive change
committees.parliament.uk/publications...

what part of "We will take the fight to Farage" has convinced them they should never in any way fight Farage

Disrupting the delicate sovereign debt equilibrium Default leads to lawsuit; lawsuit leads to precedent; precedent leads to suffering.

One interesting aspect of this - the US government thinks making New York sovereign debt law more creditor friendly will mean New York law is used less. Because debtors will not want to use it.

www.ft.com/content/abb7...

A Baptist minister has been arrested in Oxford for holding a placard reading ‘I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action’. Rev Grote of New Road Baptist Church said ‘I am doing this because of my faith. I’m doing this because I’m a follower of Jesus Christ, who broke the rules and created peace.’

Important point made in the background work that debt service to China looks like it has been increasing since last year, but mainly due to end of DSSI era & related suspensions. Whereas for the non-default countries, debt service to private creditors uninterrupted.

Debt payments to private lenders three times higher than to China - Debt Justice Lower-income countries are spending three times more on debt payments to private lenders than to China. Research by Debt Justice, using World Bank and IMF data, finds that between 2020 and 2025, 39% o...

Debt Justice also finds that for the 32 countries with the highest debt payments:

In 21 (66%) over 30% of external debt payments are to private lenders.

In six (19%) over 30% of external debt payments are to Chinese lenders.

Full research is at:

debtjustice.org.uk/press-releas...

Emerging countries' debt payments to private lenders dwarf those to China Lower-income countries' external debt payments to private lenders remain three times higher than payments to China, research shows, shedding light on the complex, costly web of creditors they face as they struggle to keep up repayments.

Debt payments by lower-income countries are three times higher to private lenders than to China.

For 88 countries, 39% of external debt payments are to private lenders, 34% multilateral lenders, 13% Chinese lenders, 14% other governments

www.reuters.com/business/fin...

It's hard to hear, but even lower earners should be paying more tax Let’s start an open and honest debate about who pays and how

There's an irreality about the tax debate in the UK

*No, we're not taxed that much (relative to other comparable countries)
*Public spending is far from high, let alone out of control
*Yes, we're all going to have to pay more tax

My new column for @theipaper.com
inews.co.uk/opinion/lowe...

Chad: High Risk (was denied debt relief by Glencore)

Ethiopia: In debt distress (bondholders have refused debt relief)

Ghana: High Risk

Malawi: In debt distress (No progress on debt relief in three years)

Zambia: High Risk