Enea Baselgia

Tout juste sortis de l'imprimerie.

En librairie le 24 octobre.

Très hâte !

Alt NR Köppel ist Moskau-Habitué und Putin-Versteher. BR Rösti „tendierte“ vor den Wahlen zu Trump. NR Martullo-Blocher glaubte noch vor wenigen Wochen, dieser sei ein „Freund“ der Schweiz. Und alt BR Maurer feiert in Peking mit Xi und den Diktatoren der Welt. Grenzenlose SVP-Liebe zum Autoritären.

Abstimmungsbudget im Vergleich: Hauseigentümer machen Rekordsumme gegen Eigenmietwert locker Welch ein Kontrast: Während der Hauseigentümerverband mit dem grössten je gemeldeten Abstimmungsbudget in den Kampf zieht, haben die Gegner nur wenig Geld zur Verfügung.

Der BR bezeichnet Abschaffung #Eigenmietwert als "ausgewogen", und einige fragen, ob Eigentümer überhaupt profitieren ("Zinsen können ja auch wieder steigen").
Dann buttert der HEV 7 Millionen in Ja-Kampagne.
Das nennen wir Ökonomen "offenbarte Präferenzen". 😉
www.tagesanzeiger.ch/eigenmietwer...

Yesterday Switzerland's Council of States voted in favour of the latest draft of a federal beneficial ownership register bill adding discrepancy reporting but it won't cover trusts, foundations or associations and access restricted to government

www.parlament.ch/FR/ratsbetri...

A long long time ago, in a far away galaxy... the US used to tax the rich

PhD Fellowship | Stone Center PSE

The Paris School of Economics Stone center on Global Wealth Dynamics is offering fully-funded PhD fellowships for student working on inequality. Deadline May 4. Details and applications here

👇👇👇

stone-center-pse.eu/grants/phd-f...

"Expenditure-based taxation significantly lowers effective average tax rates for super-rich foreigners in #Switzerland. When certain Swiss cantons abolish this regime, the number of super-rich residents declines by about 43%." 💬 @eneabaselgia.bsky.social

#TaxingBillionaires

Für evidenzbasierte Politik, gegen Obskurantismus ✊

@markschelker.bsky.social & @kurtschmidheiny.bsky.social haben dem Ständerat gestern im Namen unserer Fachgesellschaft erklärt, wie die 🇨🇭 von einer neuen Dateninfrastruktur profitieren würde.

Technisch aber wichtig!

👉 www.sgvs.ch/files/2025-0...

Great job opening👇

The Compliance Effects of the Automatic Exchange of Information: Evidence from the Swiss Tax Amnesty This paper studies the effects of the 2017 multilateral automatic exchange of information (AEoI) on tax compliance in Switzerland. Using detailed administrative tax data and difference-in-differences ...

www.cesifo.org/en/publicati...

10/

👇Check out the full paper:
The Compliance Effects of the Automatic Exchange of Information: Evidence from the Swiss Tax Amnesty | Publications | CESifo

9/ Potential policy implication: If Switzerland were to apply domestic third-party reporting (like most other countries do), compliance would likely rise even further.

8/ Today, Switzerland remains a haven for domestic tax matters, as domestic banking secrecy is still in place. My analysis shows the power of information sharing in Switzerland and hence highlights its still untapped potential.

7/ The takeaway? International cooperation in tax matters can increase transparency, and international third-party reporting can boost compliance even in a tax haven like Switzerland.

6/ So, did the AEoI really change long-term tax compliance behavior? YES. Amnesty participants didn’t just disclose wealth once. Even four years later, their reported wealth remains 50% higher than before, and they pay 25% more in wealth taxes. 📈

5/ What is driving these compliance effects? My analysis suggests it wasn’t stronger tax enforcement per se. Rather, the AEoI created a credible threat of detection. And it worked. 🚔

4/ Using detailed micro tax data and difference-in-differences designs, I document significant positive compliance effects. Overall, the AEoI prompted about 107k taxpayers (2% of all) to participate in the amnesty, disclosing CHF 42.3 billion—over 6% of GDP.

3/ Who were the evaders who participated in the amnesty? The richest 1% accounted for ~45% of all undisclosed assets. But it wasn’t just the rich who came clean. Unlike in other countries, Switzerland’s “middle-class” (P50-P90) also disclosed hidden assets—about 25% of the total.

2/ Using new Swiss tax data, I uncover that nearly 3% of all Swiss taxpayers—155,658 individuals—came forward under an amnesty between 2010-2020, revealing at least 66.4 billion CHF in previously hidden assets. That’s 10% of GDP! 🚨

1/ For decades, it was fairly easy to hide wealth offshore. Then came the AEoI: since 2017, over 100 countries automatically share banking information with each other. The result? A significant increase in tax compliance—even inside Switzerland.

🚨 Updated paper alert! 🚨

Switzerland, the world’s most infamous tax haven, has seen a strong shift in tax compliance. How? A global crackdown on offshore tax evasion: the Automatic Exchange of Information (AEoI). 🌍💰

Here’s what I found 👇 (🧵)

The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he could take government spending out of his agency's reports on gross domestic product.

Ich habe es ja gesagt: Als Nächstes werden die nationalen Statistiken in den USA dran glauben müssen. Denn: Autokratien fürchten die Wahrheit, nichts so sehr wie die Wahrheit.

apnews.com/article/trum...

Resurging #inheritance provides the title story for this week's Economist (@economist.com).
The article's main chart is impressive.
I have added Switzerland 👇.
21st-century advanced-economy societies will be significantly shaped by the distribution of inheritance - in 🇨🇭 as well as elsewhere.
1/2

Enea Baselgia - ‪102-mal zitiert‬ ‪ETH Zurich‬ - ‪Income and Wealth Inequality‬ - ‪Taxation‬ - ‪Public Economics‬

🥳A short post for a small milestone. 🥳
Just got a notification from Google Scholar that I’ve hit 100 citations!

A big thank you to everyone who has engaged with my work—whether by citing, discussing, or challenging it.🙏
scholar.google.com/citations?us...

University Tuition Fees and Student Outcomes: Literature Review from a Swiss Perspective – E4S

The 🇨🇭 government wants universities to raise tuition fees.
What might that imply for enrolment and student outcomes?
We went looking for answers in the empirical literature 👇
1/3
e4s.center/resources/re...

Wer hat Angst vor datenbasierter Evidenz?
Eine Mehrheit der NR-Wirtschaftskommission wehrte sich heute gegen den Vorschlag des Bundesrats, kantonale Steuerdaten endlich vollumfänglich für Politikevaluationen nutzbar zu machen.
1/2
www.parlament.ch/press-releas...

Aber ein Bild sagt mehr als tausend Zahlen.
Hier daher eine eindrückliche Grafik von @eneabaselgia.bsky.social und @izmartinez86.bsky.social. 👇

Vermögenswerte sind seit 2010 förmlich explodiert.
So steigt automatisch auch das Gewicht der Erbschaften.

(Quelle: direct.mit.edu/rest/article...)

3/3

🚨Updated🚨
Check out the substantially revised version of my JMP👇

Would be super interested in Instrumented DiD in particular application/papers.🙏

Current personal financial situation compared with 5 years ago, net better minus worse, from Michigan survey:

October -6
November +5

So it's all about objective circumstances, right?