Manifold Alerts

This market has moved down to a 21% chance.

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? 37% chance. EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as ...

Market: In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

manifold.markets/ScottAlexand...

Market: Will the AI bubble pop in 2025?

manifold.markets/256/will-the...

Fire at judge Diane Goodstein's house was arson 35% chance. Context: https://www.counton2.com/news/local-news/colleton-county-news/3-injured-in-edisto-beach-fire-sled-investigating/ The judge had previously blocked release of voter files to DOJ: h...

Market: Fire at judge Diane Goodstein's house was arson

manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...

Trump pardons Maxwell in 2025? 17% chance. To mark the market as YES in 2025, these events must occur: A formal pardon or commutation of Ghislaine Maxwell’s federal sentence must be signed by President Trumpin 2025. For clarity: ...

Market: Trump pardons Maxwell in 2025?

manifold.markets/predyx_marke...

Will a U.S. military service member kill a U.S. citizen protester before 2026? 27% chance. I will resolve this question as "yes," if the New York Times publishes a story stating that a U.S. citizen, involved in a protest situation, was killed by a U.S. military service member in...

Market: Will a U.S. military service member kill a U.S. citizen protester before 2026?

manifold.markets/JennaBarnaby...

Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters? 54% chance. In November 2023, the Washington Post reported: "Donald Trump and his allies have begun mapping out specific plans for using the federal government to punish critics and opponents should ...

Market: Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters?

manifold.markets/AlyssaVance/...

If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act in his second term, will the military be directed against protestors? 89% chance. I ask because the two main priorities that have been previously mentioned for Insurrection Act invocation (by the Trump team) have been border security and civil unrest. I specifically wan...

Market: If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act in his second term, will the military be directed against protestors?

manifold.markets/WalterMartin...

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term? 48% chance. Background The Insurrection Act of 1807 allows the U.S. president to deploy military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States to suppress civil disorder, insurrectio...

Market: Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

manifold.markets/FranklinBald...

Will the government still be shutdown on Halloween? 30% chance. Us government, status as is today, 2025

Market: Will the government still be shutdown on Halloween?

manifold.markets/10thOfficial...

Will the current US Government Shutdown exceed 25 days? 39% chance. This market resolves Yes when the shutdown exceeds 25 days, and No if it resolves sooner. In the event of a close call, it will resolve based on whether a new budget of any duration had be...

Market: Will the current US Government Shutdown exceed 25 days?

manifold.markets/Panfilo/will...

Hamas accepts Trump's proposed peace deal moved from 40% to 29%.

Hamas accepts Trump's proposed peace deal? 30% chance. Update 2025-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves YES if Hamas and Israel both publicly agree simultaneously, in apparent good faith, to some version of Trump's plan. Im...

Market: Hamas accepts Trump's proposed peace deal?

manifold.markets/ae/hamas-acc...

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? 4% chance. Background The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to individuals or organizations who have made outstanding contributions to promoting peace. Donald Tru...

Market: Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

manifold.markets/Mediapunk/wi...

Will Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028? 17% chance.

Market: Will Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028?

manifold.markets/Gigacasting/...

Will Hegseth demand a loyalty oath from attendants to the September 30th all hands meeting? Resolved NO. Hegseth has called a mysterious meeting of top army officers on September 30th. Many speculate that Hegseth will purge officers or demand an oath of loyalty to Trump personally at this me...

I have resolved the Hegseth loyalty oath market to NO.

manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...

Hamas accepts Trump's peace plan within 72 hours? Resolved NO. Resolution criteria Resolves YES if 72 hours after Israel acceptance, Hamas publicly and explicitly states that it “accepts” President Donald Trump’s September 29, 2025 Gaza peace plan. ...

Hamas has not accepted Trump's peace plan within 72 hours
manifold.markets/MiguelLM/ham...

Will there be at least one peer-reviewed study correlating AI usage with increased mental illness by end of 2028? 82% chance. Resolution criteria Resolves YES if, by market close, there exists at least one peer‑reviewed human‑subjects study in an academic journal showing a statistically significant positive asso...

Market: Will there be at least one peer-reviewed study correlating AI usage with increased mental illness by end of 2028?

manifold.markets/strutheo/pee...

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor? 45% chance. Resolves at my sole discretion based on vibes. I'll resolve to N/A if he doesn't take office in January 2026 (perhaps because he lost the November election).

Market: Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

manifold.markets/zax/will-zoh...

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026? 15% chance. From https://metaculus.com/questions/17110/us-or-ca-license-to-train-ai-before-2026/ As of May 2023, US law does not require any license or permit before training large AI models. One way...

Not buying more of this on principle but this is a free arb between Manifold and Metaculus, which currently has this question at 1%.
manifold.markets/MetaculusBot...

Will the government shut down on Oct. 1? [PredictIt] Resolved YES. This market will resolve identically to the PredictIt market. In no case will this market resolve before the PredictIt market. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8239/Will-the-gov...

"Will the government shut down on Oct. 1? [PredictIt]" has resolved.
manifold.markets/Mana/will-th...

BREAKING: US government has officially shutdown.

manifold.markets/FreshFrier/w...

Will a fat woman destroy a glass bridge with a boulder? 9% chance. https://x.com/F530Josh/status/1971420729032806499 something like this except in real life. Resolves when question closes (1 year). If I don't find/see something I think meets the descripti...

Funny I just bet no on this market. I'm shocked it's at 9% given that I'm pretty sure nothing like this has ever happened or will ever happen.
manifold.markets/FreshFrier/w...

I have made a relevant market that is easy to evaluate.
bsky.app/profile/mani...

Will Elon Musk apologize for Grok being too left wing or 'woke' in the second half of 2026? 50% chance. Background: Elon Musk has frequently found that his Grok AI disagrees with him and his right wing fanbase on various issues. https://the-decoder.com/new-york-times-says-xai-systematicall...

Market: Will Elon Musk apologize for Grok being too left wing or 'woke' in the second half of 2026?

manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...

Update: The government is shutting down.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025? 4% chance. Will the North Atlantic Counsel (NAC) decide before the end of 2025 that an attack on one of the NATO partners fulfilled the criteria to initiate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty? Thi...

Market: Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?

manifold.markets/DavidBudwilo...

Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025 74% chance. Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip. This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say...

Market: Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025

manifold.markets/CarmelHadar/...

Will Israel annex any part of Gaza by the end of 2025? 13% chance. Will Israel annex any part of the Gaza strip by the end of 2025? Annexation implies incorporating the area into its territory. Any one of the following three conditions are sufficient fo...

Market: Will Israel annex any part of Gaza by the end of 2025?

manifold.markets/UnspecifiedP...