Peter Hannam

Heat is also forecast to be pretty uniform across Sydney…so we might see a heavy load on the grid…

Meanwhile, Sydney looks likely to post its hottest ever October, and quite possibly the largest anomaly for any month (and the data goes back to 1859)…
Via Weatherzone

Sydney forecast to have its hottest October day on record tomorrow…
(Present record is 38.2C in October 2004)
Via BoM

Mid-spring and temperatures are climbing in Sydney by Wednesday to 38C…putting the October record of 38.2C in play. Penrith (right) looking at 40C…not a good sign for the coming summer…
(Via BoM)

Evening light may suit the sculptures better…

Sculpture by the Sea… soon to open in Sydney

Some might say ‘SMR technology will advance’… that might be true. But advances in solar, wind and batteries are certain. (And the report does not seem to account for those gains). And there is scant attention to energy efficiency, which is a pity since that typically has the best investment returns.

Also interesting: a new gas plant will take 6 yrs to build, there are no plans for new coal, and no hint nuclear power has a role to play. As this view is from the only LNP government on the mainland (and the Lib govt in Tasmania is no different), I wonder if federal LNP will change its nuclear tune

As for the planned extension of coal-fired plants beyond their ‘technical lives’. I’m no engineer but it would seem optimistic to assume Callide B’s 2 units can be extended NINETEEN years beyond their designed lives (especially if they have to ramp up and down). Tarong’s 5 units go an extra 13 yrs.

Also re demand, the Qld report only assumes a ‘slow increase in transport electrification’…(and then a ‘steady increase’ from 2035-50). There’ll also only be ‘minimal industrial electrification’. On both counts, this report misses the rapidly changing economics and tech favouring electrification…

The 2015 ref weather yr was compared with 2011 to provide ‘sensitivity’, since that was a yr of lower solar yield. It’s true that was a relatively wet yr for both Qld and East Aus, and mild too. (Only 2000 was cooler this century for both regions). Power demand would have lower, I bet, in 2011 too.

Indeed, the report recognises that one factor that ‘may influence modelled pathways’ is the impact of weather on the yield of solar and wind… but they probably should consider the impact of demand for energy (and on that basis, 2015 doesn’t look like a very apt reference year)….
(Data via BoM)

But it’s perhaps better to gauge eastern Australia since Queensland operates in the national electricity market (which is mostly eastern Aust). On that score, 2015 is a relatively mild one for mean temps with seven of the following nine years hotter. (2024 was more than 0.4C hotter than 2015.)

2015 was Queensland’s third-hottest year on record for mean temperatures..and is now the fifth-hottest year after 2017 and 2024 were quite a bit hotter (by about 0.2C)…

Among the curious elements of Queensland’s energy roadmaps is the choice of 2015 as the ‘weather reference year…

www.treasury.qld.gov.au/files/Queens...

'Consumers must act': Jane Goodall's plea to avoid a 'bleak' future The renowned naturalist says the increase in youth activity - such the global climate movement started by Swedish student Greta Thunberg - is a source of hope.

(A few years back I got to interview Jane - a charming person who never gave up:

www.smh.com.au/environment/...

Jane Goodall, world-renowned primatologist, dies aged 91 Jane Goodall Institute says ‘tireless advocate’ for natural world died in California during US speaking tour

What a life…

www.theguardian.com/science/2025...

But not so in Victoria, which had another well-below average month for rainfall in September. (All charts via BoM):

And to revisit the rainfall data…national rain was close to the September average especially in NSW:

With mean temperatures also above average over much of Australia especially in the east:

And a similar story for minimum temperatures for September:

With no sign of below-average regions for maximum temperatures:

Here’s September’s weather wrap, starting with another above average month for maximum temperatures for Australia:

And here’s the year-to-date conditions,with conditions in the southeast a lot drier than usual, with the northeast and east relatively wet.
(Via BoM)

Here’s how the past three months looked like…with a few notably wet regions…

September was another dry month across large areas of Australia’s southeast…
(Via BoM)

‘Bombshell report’, indeed… though I might gone with a different adjective…

And here’s the national rainfall picture for the winter just ended (all via BoM):

And a reminder of the rainfall picture for August… with parts of the west and east relatively wet:

Leading to this reading of mean temperatures for winter:

Here’s winter minimum temperatures, with a lot of inland Australia cooler than the 1961-90 average: