Nick Macpherson

💯 this from @nickmacpherson.bsky.social

I’m teaching a class on lobbying for future policymakers on Monday. Hard to do better than this sensational oped from @nickmacpherson.bsky.social about money in UK politics and the transition from big banks to big tech—but the song remains the same. And the loser is public trust in government.

Counting the cost of money in politics Revelations of Mandelson’s cabinet leaks spotlight the symbiotic relationship between government and bankers

Counting the cost of money in politics ft.trib.al/sAx2W1p | opinion

Counting the cost of money in politics Revelations of Mandelson’s cabinet leaks spotlight the symbiotic relationship between government and bankers

My thoughts on the events of this week for tomorrow's FT.

url.uk.m.mimecastprotect.com/s/YlnhCgZmgt...

Alistair Darling and the official Treasury were always aware that investment banks had an inside track to Number 10. But the brazen nature of that inside track is rather breath-taking.

I commend this review which I carried out in 2013. The recommendations remain relevant today. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7f09...

The only way to raise serious revenue is to raise a tax which everybody pays. Raising a tax which someone else pays rarely raises the revenue needed and creates endless pressure from special interest groups. Compare and contrast Mr Osborne's 2 1/2% VAT increase with his pasty tax. #omnishambles

YouTube video by RAMSA | Robert A.M. Stern Architects Visualizing architectural wonders lost to history: rendering Project Soane

Nikolaus Pevsner famously described the demolition of Sir John Soane's Bank of England, as "the greatest architectural crime in the City of London of the twentieth century". Here is Project Soane's initial recreation of parts of it. @nickmacpherson.bsky.social youtu.be/TlSdcXIqufQ?...

I blame Montagu Norman. As J M Keynes said of him "always so charming, always so wrong".

Case study week on the 'Chancellors and the Treasury' module on @strandgroup.bsky.social MA Government Studies - Expert advisers @nickmacpherson.bsky.social @officialedballs.bsky.social prep students before they re-enact the day UK left the ERM in Sep 1992, a historic and chaotic 24 hours

2 thoughts on the spending review. 1. Raising public service productivity is more important than ever. 2. 15 years of prioritising the NHS, education and "triple lock" (and now defence) by cutting all other programmes, in particular the home office and justice) is no longer sustainable. #soundmoney

I dodged that question but I do recall writing an essay later on about the bright prospects for raising productivity growth in the coal industry: not the first or last time I was a tad optimistic about Britain's growth prospects.

Starmer must defy Trump by hugging other tariff victims closer Britain doesn’t deserve to be on the end of Donald Trump’s taxes, but the solution may be to form an economic coalition of the willing and focus on what we’re good at

Sound economic analysis from the ever insightful @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social. #freetrade

www.thetimes.com/article/06e1...

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A US tariff pathology is unleashed upon the world [FREE TO READ] The Republicans have allowed a destructive economic nationalist to lead America into chaos

My Trade Secrets response to the tariffs.

Bad news: these tariffs cd be worse than the 1930s & the Republicans are inflicting their deep pathology on the world.

Good news: this is as yet a US trade war, not a world trade war. Others can resist following Trump's crazy road.

First 300 clicks free.

Fiscal rules can be useful. But the Treasury always attaches more importance to them than they deserve. And something which can be broken with impunity on a regular basis isn't a rule. It's a target. Much more important is whether the public finances are sustainable.

The biggest challenge for the Chancellor is delivering the revenue forecast. Despite all the tax increases since Labour last left office, the tax burden only rose by 2.1 per cent of GDP in 15 years. Today's forecast assumes a similar rise in just 5 years. If only raising revenue was that easy...

Debt service costs are set to rise from £105.2bn to £131.6bn over the next 5 years, a growth rate significantly ahead of spending on public services and welfare. a reminder that the Chancellor is right to prioritise fiscal consolidation. #soundmoney

Earnings related unemployment benefit abolished in 1982. Earnings related invalidity benefit and the state earnings related pension scheme lived on until the mid-90s, having been cut back in the Fowler reforms of the mid-80s.

True. Barbara Castle's 1975 reforms exchanged income related contributory benefits for income related NI contributions. It was peak social insurance. Sadly it didn't last. By the mid-1980s it was deemed unaffordable. But income related national insurance lives on at a much higher rate.

I signed on to supplementary benefit in 1978 -aged 18 -having broken my arm. I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure my benefit at a little under £14 a week was more generous in real terms than it is now, despite living standards more than doubling since. It was the year the UK was at its most equal.

I've been wrestling with the same issue for some weeks. I still haven't found the answer. But I suspect washed up and cynical HMT officials (me not you) aren't the target audience.

Good to know Canada is in safe hands. If ever someone was well qualified to deal with the extraordinary challenges Britain's most reliable and loyak ally faces, it's my old friend Dr Carney. #freetrade

Love the way no one over here paid any attention to Australia when a massive Chinese warship started live-firing off its coast, but some random influencer no one’s ever heard of steals a baby wombat and our media can’t get enough 😀😬

Mellon vs Churchill — when world leaders chose co-operation over confrontation Jill Eicher’s timely book brings to life the battle between the US Treasury secretary and the British chancellor in the wake of the first world war

My book review for tomorrow's FT. www.ft.com/content/c741...

Freedom and democracy are always worth fighting for. Slava Ukraini.

We have now had fiscal "rules" for more than 25 years. Arguably they have done more harm than good encouraging HMT to focus on incremental changes to live within them until they can't...cue a new rule. What matters is the substance of fiscal policy. Does it support macro policy? Is it sustainable?

Happy Brexit Day (2).

Why did immigration *increase* after Brexit, and what do w know about the economic and the labour market impacts?

My National Institute Economic Review article (open access).

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

"It takes many years before governments can have any impact on the trend rate of growth, and most governments end up mistaking cyclical for structural improvements."

UK 10 year bond yields have risen 14 basis points in the last month. Germany's have risen by 30 bp and the USA's by 21 bp, confirming both the fickleness of markets and the media. #soundmoney