SebastiΓ‘n πŸ‡΅πŸ‡·'s Avatar

SebastiΓ‘n πŸ‡΅πŸ‡·

@realist-cfc.bsky.social

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡· Chelsea fan. Analytics enjoyer. Options trader but I don’t want to talk work. Cynical but fair. Also: Rangers, Red Sox, Survivor, sports gambling, foodie, TV + movies, and other things. Humans are multifaceted after all.

232 Followers  |  337 Following  |  897 Posts  |  Joined: 06.11.2024  |  1.8569

Latest posts by realist-cfc.bsky.social on Bluesky

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The Ebbs and Flows of Unemployment The emotional whiplash that produced an extremely premature writing hiatus

It's been a while. Here's a personal musing on my experience being laid off, and the mix of feelings that have come with it. Give it a read if you feel so inclined :) open.substack.com/pub/sebonthe...

26.08.2025 04:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

We might have reached the point where Trev Chalobah's played himself off the pure profit machine. Lovely story and a massive fuck you to everyone who doubted him, which includes those who run the club.

14.07.2025 13:57 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

CWC final, you will be seeing me.

09.07.2025 14:36 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Lmao, I really just cannot stand this guy.

05.07.2025 19:55 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I think Benfica + Saudi interest enough to get Β£20-25m on FΓ©lix. Nkunku I’m sure will fetch a fee, though Β£35m maybe too optimistic. Agree with Chilwell though - could easily be a contract termination, like Sterling.

05.07.2025 19:44 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Madueke + Jackson + Β£20m out for Delap + EstΓͺvΓ£o + Gittens would be a nasty downgrade, unless EstΓͺvΓ£o lives up to even half of his β€œnext Neymar” hype (unlikely, as talented as he seems).

05.07.2025 19:22 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Current prefictions for sales by the end of the summer:

Madueke Β£50m
Jackson Β£50m
Nkunku Β£35m
Petrović £25m
FΓ©lix Β£25m
Veiga Β£20m
Ugochukwu Β£20m
Gilchrist Β£10m
Chilwell Β£10m

Everyone else gets a loan or bomb squadded after fetching no suitors.

05.07.2025 19:22 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Also, hope Zac Jones enjoys Buffalo. Guy can play hockey, deserves to get consistent 3rd pair ice time at least, and maybe even QB a 2nd PP unit.

03.07.2025 01:47 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Late reaction here, but really gonna miss Key :( Inconsistent player but one of my favorite characters on the team.

03.07.2025 01:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I'll be really sad to see Noni go. He actually looked like an example of the model working (maybe still is in an unambitious sense) but he's not in their club so it doesn't matter, his fate was decided last summer, bit like Gallagher. It's so hard to care about this team when stuff like this happens

30.06.2025 21:26 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

And they all cost Β£30-60m it’s a tough life out here.

29.06.2025 18:23 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

We are not on the same boat sir ❌ No Nico Jackson slander in my mentions!

29.06.2025 18:22 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Hey I’ll take it a million times over our last β€œbut why” signing, who coincidentally shares his name.

29.06.2025 18:14 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

JoΓ£o Pedro is our annual β€œbut why?” signing. Rate the player but like, why?

29.06.2025 18:14 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Actually West Ham might be a bit generous. Burnley maybe?

27.06.2025 22:52 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Random thought but KDH is so β€œdeadline day loan move to West Ham” coded.

27.06.2025 22:52 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

DOBSON TO THE HABS?

27.06.2025 17:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

To clarify on (2), legacy does matter but past a certain point (imo 6-7 seasons) the longevity argument loses weight. Also, Hazard sadly isn’t in my XI, but would easily get in ahead of Giggs.

27.06.2025 12:06 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Seeing some all-time PL XI discourse. Mine is pretty vanilla I guess but a few hills I will die on:

(1) Cech’s spot is uncontested, nobody comes close
(2) Quality > quantity, so Trent > Neville, Hazard > Giggs etc.
(3) If KDB isn’t in there you might as well stop watching the sport

27.06.2025 12:06 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Out of curiosity, why would you put these two deals on equal footing? Aside from Mudryk’s extremely high physical upside, nothing seems to point to him being an even remotely comparable investment to Gittens now. Don’t love the money but surely it’s an order of magnitude better than Mudryk… right?

26.06.2025 17:17 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

GuΓ©hi getting strongly linked to Liverpool now. Wirtz, Frimpong, Kerkez, in for the likes of GuΓ©hi and Ekitiké… man that team is terrifying.

26.06.2025 11:44 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Liam Delap welcome to Chelsea. That is nasty.

25.06.2025 01:51 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If sports analytics paid anything close to quantitative finance, there would be a Dmitry-shaped hole in my office's front door right now

23.06.2025 18:51 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Dfkm European clubs are buying this league’s duds while they keep the best ones these teams are unreal 😭😭😭

20.06.2025 20:49 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

(Full credit to Neto as well. Great chop and nice finish.)

16.06.2025 19:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Nicolas Jackson that is DISGUSTING.

16.06.2025 19:37 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Missed the Chels. Happy to see them back on my screen.

16.06.2025 18:33 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Having him train with Chelsea wasn’t the braindead decision, it was leaving him off the squad with multiple spots available. The only reason they might have done that was to have him train with Strasbourg.

But now he isn’t even doing that. So there’s literally no reason to have left him out.

14.06.2025 16:04 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I mean even if a club is stupid, you understand why they’re doing something - you just disagree with it. But so often at Chelsea I’m left thinking what on earth was even the thought process behind this decision? I literally just don’t see any way to rationalize this.

14.06.2025 14:40 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This Kendry PΓ‘ez stuff, I mean it’s very minimal. In a month we all will have forgotten about it.

But is there any other club whose decisions are consistently so braindead?

14.06.2025 14:40 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

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