Zeb Palmer

😁

all things being equal, without that old burn, fire would probably be much larger already.

2. looks like it was the 2018 Cougar fire? that's a pretty long time up north fuel wise. Based on most recent sat images, I see a fairly mosaic old burn with quite a bit of fuel. Won't sustain longer crown runs, but it'll certainly burn grass/brush and shorter crown runs.

1. It just comes down to the fact that you can't catch them all. could be timing, terrain, fuel load, the wrong puff of wind, limited resources, usually a combination of all of the above.

The new official estimate is 700 acres. 🤔
No accurate IR mapped perimeter yet, estimate seems a little low vs what I see on VIIRS, but not insanely so if a more mosaic burn pattern.

As I predicted, this fire is going Type 3, an incident management team is on order. #IdahoFire

A beautiful alpine lake in the Sawtooth Mountains

15 minutes before the lightning... ⚡ #IdahoEscape #Mountains #Idaho #AlpineLakes

As of this morning, it was roughly three miles from the Montana border.

Yeah, there's a lot of initial attack right now, but we have *zero* large fire incidents (may have one going that way up north)

The fact we have none right now is insanely lucky and well below norm. Much of that due to the fact that central Idaho is not all that dry (vs normal)

I did however learn that "crack whore" can be used as a term of endearment. Apparently? Maybe only when screamed at the top of one's lungs across a campground?

Mmhmmm....

For the last 25 years, I'd say it's WELL below average. (So far)

I did however learn that "crack whore" can be used as a term of endearment. Apparently? Maybe only when screamed at the top of one's lungs across a campground?

They've been packing up to leave for the last hour+ and one of their cars has been idling with their (shitty) stereo bass loud enough to hear and feel inside our trailer.

At one point the loudest most obvious woman ever said "I feel sorry for our neighbors"

Like, yeah, we feel sorry for us too. We also feel sorry for your dog and kids, they deserve way better.

In all my 40+ years of camping all over the country, I have never been in a campground next to a more obnoxious family as the one this weekend at pettit lake.

Their tiny little dog yapped the *entire* weekend, and yeah.... I get it. If I had to be around those people I'd be begging for help too.

I say by my count and 'active' as the two other fires that i know of to transition were the early season fire in the Lochsa which had no interest in growing after the initial attack wind event and the ambush incident in CDA which would have been easily handled in IA had the IA crews not been shot.

At this point, I assume the Lightning Creek Fire will get a Type 3 (most likely) Incident Management Team on order. Which by my count would make it the first *active* fire to transition in #IdahoFire this year.

cc: @judithofyork.bsky.social

I'm mapping the Lightning Creek Fire at roughly 1,500 acres as of the 4am VIIRS satellite pass, basically exactly what I was estimating based on column photos, terrain/fuel and GOES-West imagery below. #IdahoFire

Quick reminder that we do have a chronological #IdahoFire feed, it's not listed on blueskyidaho.com yet (I'll add it soon), but here is the direct link.

bsky.app/profile/did:...

Here's the GOES-West Fire temp view of the Lightning Creek Fire through sunset. The fire hasn't bedded down yet.

The last estimate was 250 acres, the most recent predictive model predicted 500 acres or so today, depending on when it beds, I think possibly up to 2,000 acres on this run. #IdahoFire

Ok, I get a better sense of scale with this one, the base of the column is not nearly as big as it looked in the first pic.

Decent column being put up by the Lightning Creek Fire #IdahoFire

That column doesn't really scream 250 acres...

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#IdahoFire

I'm told a welder started the Agency Fire. Neighbors attacked the fire with equipment until Lemhi County Fire, USFS/BLM engines, and a helicopter arrived. #IdahoFire

I'm told a welder started the Agency Fire. Neighbors attacked the fire with equipment until Lemhi County Fire, USFS/BLM engines, and a helicopter arrived. #IdahoFire

Firenado tracks in the ashes of the burned area. About 6 tracks can be discerned moving from the burned to unburned area.

Firenado tracks in the ashes of the burned area. About 6 tracks can be discerned moving from the burned to unburned area.

Firenado tracks in the ashes of the burned area. About 6 tracks can be discerned moving from the burned to unburned area.

@zebpalmer.com I flew over the Range Fire area yesterday and took some photos of firenado tracks in the burned area.

Extremely heavy initial attack today #IdahoFire

I'm watching fires all across the state but so far nothing too threatening.

The agency fire has been contained