Electoral Studies

New research spotlight! 🚨

Check out this recent paper by José Pedro Lopes on educational expansion, (the lack of) upward mobility, and radical left support in Europe.

Available open access here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The myth of an EU-hating #countryside may be overstated.
Research by @pmaneuvre.bsky.social, @leoazzollini.bsky.social & Anne-Marie Jeannet in @electoralstudies.bsky.social shows that #EU structural funds investment has nurtured trust in the Union across #Europe's rural areas
doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

Our latest @chesdata.bsky.social dataset on party positions was announced in @electoralstudies.bsky.social. They have a great dataset section.

👉Check out our new publication in @electoralstudies.bsky.social (with Toth & Chytilek)! Using eye-tracking and surveys, we test whether framing political issues in moral terms attracts more attention than presenting them with facts. Surprisingly, facts hold a slight advantage doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

🚨 New publication alert! 🚨
Why do some people keep voting throughout their lives while others drop out? And how do authoritarian elections - even uncompetitive ones- shape citizens’ habits?
Ksenia Northmore-Ball and I tackle these questions in my new paper, now out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social.

Issue congruence outweighs geography: Understanding the appeal of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) in east and west Germany

New Publication 📖 with @aikowagner.bsky.social in @electoralstudies.bsky.social
"Issue congruence outweighs geography: Understanding the appeal of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) in east and west Germany"
Full paper (open access)👉
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
What did we find? 🧵

My experiment on election outcomes, partisan identity & affective polarization is now out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social.

Puzzle: From a group ID lens, outcomes could shift both perceived out-party threat & in-group status → ambivalent predictions for affective polarization.

New research alert 🚨

Check out this recent publication by @tiemanng.bsky.social on the impact of certainty, risk, and uncertainty on voters' choices. Available open access here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The CHES EU team has published a new research note in @electoralstudies.bsky.social describing some trends across the 25 years now covered by our trend file and exploring two new items included in the 2024 wave of the survey: doi.org/10.1016/j.el...
Here’s a summary thread:
1/

‪Can one further improve the common (face-saving) turnout question in election surveys? Our new publication
@electoralstudies.bsky.social tested this w three alternative wordings & validated turnout data. Short answer is that the current version works already pretty good!

doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

In this video, I talk about a really neat study recently published in @electoralstudies.bsky.social. I recommend reading it!

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

4/6 🧵In @electoralstudies.bsky.social Brännlund &‬ @rafaelahlskog.bsky.social investigate causal effect of wealth on participation. Use twins & wealth registers in 🇸🇪. Results from twin pair FE models do not show effect on voting & effect on civic participation closer to negative doi.org/pz68

Very happy to share our new publication with João Guedes-Neto in @electoralstudies.bsky.social! In this study we analyze inter- and intra-party differences and strategic salience in US representatives' tweets on immigrants and refugees in the 2020 election campaign. 🧵

DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

Does prepaid postage on ballot return envelopes increase voter turnout? In our new paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social @pierre-lue.bsky.social and I analyse all Swiss municipalities (2005 to 2023) and find that the increase in turnout lags several years behind and depends on the municipal context

🚨 New research! 🚨

Check out this recent article by @twanhuijsmans.bsky.social and Wouter van der Brug on place-based resentment and populist voting in the Netherlands.

Free to read here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

🚨 New research alert! 🚨

Check out this recent paper by Johannes Bergh, Dag Arne Christensen and @finseraas.bsky.social on the impact of early voting on partners mobilisation. Available open access here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

📢 Publication alert:
Our paper "Unpacking the rural–urban divide: Identities and stereotypes" - with @tonirodon.bsky.social, @griambau.bsky.social, ‬ and Andreu Rodilla - is now out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social.

Rural representation in Europe: The presence of place in national parliaments Recent research shows a growing rural-urban divide in political attitudes and behavior, which has given currency to expressions like “places that don'…

New paper @electoralstudies.bsky.social

With @gricoc.bsky.social and @rgarciadelhorno.bsky.social we study the presence of legislators with urban and rural backgrounds in national parliaments

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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With a little help from the crowd: Estimating election fraud with forensic methods Election forensics are a widespread tool for diagnosing electoral manipulation out of statistical anomalies in publicly available election micro-data.…

2/2 The paper outlines a procedure to overcome common issues in forensics by making use of directly observed instances of fraud and machine learning methods. Free to read here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

🚨 New research alert 🚨

1/2 Check out this new publication by Christoph Koenig on election forensics to identify electoral manipulation.

Check out this recent article, “Elite party disunity negatively predicts mass partisan-ideological sorting,” published @electoralstudies.bsky.social by Joshua Robison👇https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379423000811 #polisky

(1/4) Do evaluations of party leaders impact individual vote choice? Check out this @electoralstudies.bsky.social article by Oľga Gyárfášová and Roman Hlatky: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #polisky

New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social where I look at the impact of parties’ age-targeted group appeals on age gaps in voting🧵

📣 New article 🌟
👤 Alexander Verdoes
👉 Do second-order elections produce second-order governments? How national and regional factors influence the composition of regional governments
📗 Open Access in Electoral Studies @electoralstudies.bsky.social
🔗 doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

If you like the piece below, check out our other piece in @electoralstudies.bsky.social on how wishful thinking shapes coalition expectations! www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Title page. Title: Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election. Abstract: When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations remain marked by significant partisan gaps. The election result substantially reduces uncertainty about coalition formation—decreasing, but far from eliminating, differences in expectations between groups with different preferences. Our findings provide a clear case of static wishful thinking (contemporaneous association between preferences and expectations) without dynamic wishful thinking (divergence over time in expectations in line with preferences), suggesting that citizens' expectations of the future, regardless of their prior commitments, respond accordingly to events, but wishful thinking persists even in contexts of dramatically reduced uncertainty.

Plot visualising three ways expectations might change in response to events: divergence, convergence, or parallelism.

Plot showing how expectations that different parties would enter into the governing coalition changed from before to after the 2021 German federal election.

Our paper "Wishful Thinking in Response to Events" is now out @electoralstudies.bsky.social!

w/ @polpsychjoe.bsky.social @florianstoeckel.bsky.social @vittoriomerola.bsky.social @benlyons.bsky.social @jasonreifler.bsky.social et al

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

🚨 New research spotlight 🚨

Check out this note by @arothers.bsky.social on how to measure affective polarization in multiparty systems.

Available open access here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

New research alert! 🚨

Check out this paper by Jakoob De Haan, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Shu Yu on the impact of elections on fiscal policy across emerging market and developing economies.

Available open-access here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...