Electoral Studies

Do open lists increase turnout? Probably not, but they increase rates of voter error: New evidence from Spain Leonardo Carella Abstract This article challenges the claim that open-list systems are beneficial for electoral participation, by reassessing and extending the analysis in a notable empirical paper that advances this argument. The paper (Carlos Sanz, “The effect of electoral systems on voter turnout: Evidence from a natural experiment”, PSRM, 2017) leverages a population-based discontinuity in Spanish municipal elections (1979–2011), where towns with fewer than 250 residents employ open lists whereas larger towns employ closed lists. Through a series of statistical tests and the inspection of alternative data sources, I show that the positive effect of open lists on turnout estimated in the paper is dubious, for two reasons: (1) non-random missing data, due to inconsistencies in how non-valid votes were recorded above and below the threshold, and (2) compound treatment issues, due to changes in list-length requirements at the threshold. I then proceed to show that, rather than improving turnout, the more complex open-list ballot actually hinders voters’ ability to express their preferences, by increasing the incidence of voter errors relative to closed lists (reflected in higher rates of ‘null’ voting). To support a causal interpretation of this relationship, I present evidence from the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, and show that a similar pattern obtains in Spanish general elections, where open and closed lists are used concurrently for the election of the country’s bicameral parliament. I conclude by discussing the implications of the analysis for implementing population-based regression discontinuities and evaluating electoral system effects.

New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social.

I show that - contrary to claims that personalised electoral systems are good for participation - Open Lists have no effect on turnout relative to Closed Lists; in fact, they increase rates of voter error. 🗳️
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The myth of compensatory effects: How party organisation shapes women's representation in dual-candidacy mixed electoral systems Electoral systems are widely recognised as important institutional determinants explaining women's political representation. Mixed-member proportional…

Read open access here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

🚨 New paper by @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social & @maarja.bsky.social on women in politics. Drawing from Germany (1976–2025), they show that local party control over nominations means even mixed electoral systems struggle to get women elected, especially in rural or safe seats.

Conflict on the campaign trail? How campaign effort and electoral competitiveness shape affective polarization Concerns about the consequences of affective polarization for governing and democracy have resulted in a strong surge of publications on the topic. Th…

Conflict on the campaign trail? How campaign effort and electoral competitiveness shape affective polarization
doi.org/10.1016/j.el...
Paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Research Fellow Justin Robinson and Ruth Dassonneville

🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨

New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of:
1) bottom-up public demand
2) elites are neglecting it
3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it

tinyurl.com/44ryyybc

🧵

Conflict on the campaign trail? How campaign effort and electoral competitiveness shape affective polarization Concerns about the consequences of affective polarization for governing and democracy have resulted in a strong surge of publications on the topic. Th…

New paper with Justin Robinson @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social! Our starting point is the observation that there is much variation in affective polarization across the UK.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

We have an article just out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social which shows how voters’ preferences over clientelistic candidates are shaped by their trust in political institutions. Read it here ➡️ authors.elsevier.com/c/1mQ6AxRaZr...

📢 New publication out in Electoral Studies!

Do voters care about ideology in local elections? Studying the 2012 & 2018 Flemish local elections, @dieterstiers.bsky.social and I find they do.

A little thread 🧵

Impact of switching on preference vote change

Does party switching pay off for MPs? Not really, but... For details see our #instaparty paper w @sonagolder.bsky.social, @ibenskasr.bsky.social & @paulinasl.bsky.social just out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

‼️ New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social with the fantastic Valentin Pautonnier, Michael Lewis-Beck and Richard Nadeau!

doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

A short 🧵 on what it's about and what we find

All the “Missing” ladies: Attribution bias in candidate selection after electoral setbacks How do parties update candidate lists after electoral setbacks, and what does this mean for women’s representation? We exploit Turkey’s 2015 back-to-b…

Happy to share our new paper in Electoral Studies. We show how electoral setbacks reshape candidate lists and women’s representation, using data from Turkey’s 2015 back-to-back elections. Joint w/Elif Erbay & Konstantinos Matakos.
@electoralstudies.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Could you please repeat it? The effect of language, and language variety on trust in multinational settings Does the language or dialect used in political messages affect people’s trust? While previous research has considered the question, little is known ab…

🚨 New article 🎉
Could you please repeat it? The effect of language, and language variety on trust in multinational settings @electoralstudies.bsky.social
sciencedirect.com/science/arti... @politiquesupf.bsky.social With @tonirodon.bsky.social @aflorsmas.bsky.social @nufranco.bsky.social SMorales 🧵👇

Could you please repeat it? The effect of language, and language variety on trust in multinational settings Does the language or dialect used in political messages affect people’s trust? While previous research has considered the question, little is known ab…

🚨New article🎉

➡️Could you please repeat it? The effect of language, and language variety on trust in multinational settings @electoralstudies.bsky.social www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... co-authored with @bernatpuertas.bsky.social @aflorsmas.bsky.social @nufranco.bsky.social S Morales (1/n)

1/ Does growing up poor always lead to political apathy?

Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not.

🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac

Really excited to share my new article published in @electoralstudies.bsky.social!

1/7

Burdens and gains. The association between house rent increases and voting in the city of Madrid Existing research indicates that the electoral effects of changing house rents depend on political parties’ left-right positioning and adherence to po…

🎉🚨 Super happy to see our article “Burdens and Gains. The Association Between House Rent Increases and Voting in the City of Madrid” (w/ Marcos-Marne) now out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social. We examine how rising rental prices in Madrid are linked to voting.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

And here, Per Adman looks into how poor health affects turnout and other forms of participation in Sweden. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

You might also be interested in how poor health more generally affects turnout. In this study, Mikko Mattila, @petersoderlund.bsky.social, @hannawass.bsky.social and Lauri Rapeli examine this across 30 countries. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

@ralphscott.bsky.social and Melanie Jones move beyond participation to examine how disability also affects partisanship in Britain.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Here Michael Herron & @electionsmith.bsky.social examine the extent to which postal ballots are able to close the disability turnout gap. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Here Samuel Brown and Melanie Jones zoom in on the UK in particular, and assess how the 'disability voting gap' varies by the severity, type and chronicity of disability. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

This article by Priestley et al. provides the first systematic cross-national assessment of disabled people's electoral and political participation. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Today is the UN International Day of Persons with Disabilities. Disability shapes people’s lives in many ways — including how they participate in elections. To mark the day, here’s a selection of our research on this important topic.

Political violence and invalid voting: A case study This study explores the extent to which political violence influences levels of invalid voting, a common form of electoral protest. It also explores t…

New from me in @electoralstudies.bsky.social! Across municipalities (🇲🇽), more incidents of political violence lead to more invalid voting — a form of protest. But more so in tight elections, where the protest can be more effective. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

🚨 New research spotlight! 🚨

Check out this paper by Andrew Saab, which finds that candidates who narrowly lose to political allies are more likely to withdraw from future municipal races, renounce party memberships, and switch party affiliations.

Read here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

2/6 🧵In @electoralstudies.bsky.social, @fedetrastulli.bsky.social argues while left parties lost working-class votes between 2002-2020, those emphasizing cultural issues still attract working-class voters. Culture but not class explain workers’ support for the left. doi.org/qcs2

How a Prime Minister’s Popularity Shapes Party Support From Thatcher to Starmer, UK PMs remain the strongest signal of party support

🔍How does a prime minister’s popularity affect party support in the UK? 🗳️ A new blog on @3streamsblog.bsky.social explains research from @electoralstudies.bsky.social, finding that PM approval correlates with vote intentions for the governing party across four decades. medium.com/3streams/how...

Education and voter turnout revisited: Evidence from a Swedish twin sample with validated turnout data The association between education and voter turnout is well-established in almost a century of research. The causal status of this correlation, howeve…

In this @electoralstudies.bsky.social piece, @rafaelahlskog.bsky.social examines the causality between education and voter-turnout, finding that education does not affect voter turnout in Swedish elections but does matter for the #Europeanelections.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Does poor health cause political passivity even in a Scandinavian welfare state? Investigating the impact of self-rated health using Swedish panel data Poor health is generally believed to cause political passivity. Prior studies that satisfactorily acknowledge the causality problems involved are main…

Per Adman uses Swedish panel data to examine whether poor #health causes political passivity, even in a Scandinavian #welfare state. @electoralstudies.bsky.social

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Left parties’ strategies and working-class vote in contemporary Western Europe (2002–2020) What should the left do strategically to retain workers' vote? This paper provides extensive empirical evidence on the relationship between left parti…

A new paper from @fedetrastulli.bsky.social published in @electoralstudies.bsky.social comes to an important conclusion: "[...] workers’ electoral support for left parties is higher when they put greater emphasis on cultural issues [...]"

See here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...