Daniel T. Roberts

I'll present on the politics of Dodd-Frank rollback today at @cape-team.bsky.social Annual Conference in a great panel on "Business and Civil Society" together with Jane Sumner & Andrew Kerner,
@alanyan.bsky.social, and @jaeyeonkim.bsky.social. Hope to see you there, Working Paper out in ~ a month!

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Just musings, but have thought that 2024 Trump campaign (or at least its big money tech backers) had a perception of doing such "ends against the middle" type politics vs a self-satisfied mid-class elite in its messaging. If anyone has empirical ideas for a paper on theme dm me?

So, super-rich tech elite find themselves with unexpected political bed-fellows: precisely those most threatened by e.g. AI automation of clerical work, H1B visa competition. May provide opportunities for Dems, not trafficking in racism, but shared/solidaristic growth politics.

Ironically I think this is the same political "type error" albeit with a different policy package of Biden admin, which thought "re-industrialize" policy platform could politically "buy off" an (anachronistic) export working class w/ industrial policy/relations/keeping tariffs.

For these types, influx of competing skilled is very high stakes & materially threatening, while ironically might benefit from labor price deflation of immigration status quo as consumers. Super-elites like Musk/Ramaswamy misunderstand their coalition + political economy involved

Also, accept/cheer on welfare retrenchment bc growing capacity to self-insure thru (hoarded) homes/credit/educ and moving up tax scale. Helps makes sense of why Trump's messaging *symbolically* gestures towards re-industrialization, but in practice e.g. tax cuts, "defend suburbs"

This has been happening a long-time. Former working class whites move to suburbs to secure home equity + college for kids during white flight. Anxiety amid de-industrialization for them, feedbacking with existing racist attitudes, were central to Nixon/Reagan homeowner coalition.

In a world where MAGA voters are industrial/construction etc working class and aspire same for their children, this policy package/coalition might work. Problem is that there are few such jobs left, and high propensity MAGA types are (or for kids aspiring) marginal tech skilled

Stolper-Samuelson type logic but with intra-labor differentiation: Ends vs Middle. Might even have positive consumption/growth effects for not in tech. Not a problem too for elite competitively skilled. Problem: class positions are often aspirational and inter-generational.

Just musings, but have thought that 2024 Trump campaign (or at least its big money tech backers) had a perception of doing such "ends against the middle" type politics vs a self-satisfied mid-class elite in its messaging. If anyone has empirical ideas for a paper on theme dm me?

Shifting immigration policy to massively restrict/remove immigrants with less technical skills, while massively opening up immigration from those with more technical skills, should *in theory* bind technical hiring capital owners and less tech skilled (domestic citizen) labor.

So, super-rich tech elite find themselves with unexpected political bed-fellows: precisely those most threatened by e.g. AI automation of clerical work, H1B visa competition. May provide opportunities for Dems, not trafficking in racism, but shared/solidaristic growth politics.

What we're seeing in the intra-MAGA coalition brouhaha (besides the surface ethno-racial animus), is the the top of a self-perceived "ends against the middle" coalition trying to assert itself and realizing that its coalition-mates are actually among the insecure middle (thread)

Ironically I think this is the same political "type error" albeit with a different policy package of Biden admin, which thought "re-industrialize" policy platform could politically "buy off" an (anachronistic) export working class w/ industrial policy/relations/keeping tariffs.

For these types, influx of competing skilled is very high stakes & materially threatening, while ironically might benefit from labor price deflation of immigration status quo as consumers. Super-elites like Musk/Ramaswamy misunderstand their coalition + political economy involved

Also, accept/cheer on welfare retrenchment bc growing capacity to self-insure thru (hoarded) homes/credit/educ and moving up tax scale. Helps makes sense of why Trump's messaging *symbolically* gestures towards re-industrialization, but in practice e.g. tax cuts, "defend suburbs"

This has been happening a long-time. Former working class whites move to suburbs to secure home equity + college for kids during white flight. Anxiety amid de-industrialization for them, feedbacking with existing racist attitudes, were central to Nixon/Reagan homeowner coalition.

In a world where MAGA voters are industrial/construction etc working class and aspire same for their children, this policy package/coalition might work. Problem is that there are few such jobs left, and high propensity MAGA types are (or for kids aspiring) marginal tech skilled

Stolper-Samuelson type logic but with intra-labor differentiation: Ends vs Middle. Might even have positive consumption/growth effects for not in tech. Not a problem too for elite competitively skilled. Problem: class positions are often aspirational and inter-generational.

Shifting immigration policy to massively restrict/remove immigrants with less technical skills, while massively opening up immigration from those with more technical skills, should *in theory* bind technical hiring capital owners and less tech skilled (domestic citizen) labor.

What we're seeing in the intra-MAGA coalition brouhaha (besides the surface ethno-racial animus), is the the top of a self-perceived "ends against the middle" coalition trying to assert itself and realizing that its coalition-mates are actually among the insecure middle (thread)

Finally, as someone who loves how film can make politics visceral/ accessible, I'd recommend 12.12: The Day (Seoul Spring) on military coup of Chun Doo-hwan in 1979, and A Taxi-Driver depicting its consequences in anti-Chun 1980 Gwangju Uprising. This history deserves to be felt

I'm by no means an IR expert, but I also think this suggests the intellectual bankruptcy of an American foreign policy whose engagement with gov/parties in East Asia is whether they're "Pro" or "Anti" US . Quietism it promotes in such moments can make alignment self-fulfilling.

Worth noting that Korea's dem transition was fully inaugurated in 1993. Moving strength of civil society in defense of democracy is because military gov in living memory. Apparently also for those who bafflingly, anachronistically thought its return acceptable for political gain.

If the PPP, a conservative party that can trace its roots as a successor party to the pre-democratization military regime, wants to assertively step out from under its rather embarrassing legacy of trading on authoritarian nostalgia (see: Park Geun-hye), now would be the time.

PPP leader vows efforts to block opposition-led impeachment motion against Yoon | Yonhap News Agency SEOUL, Dec. 5 (Yonhap) -- Han Dong-hoon, the leader of the ruling People Power Party (PPP)...

Utterly unconscionable that any legislator, in the wake of a (botched, but nonetheless real) coup attempt in a democracy where military authoritarianism is in living memory, would think any route other than impeachment and removal is acceptable re: Yoon
en.yna.co.kr/view/AE...

Yoon's Auto-Coup resembles more than anything, Pedro Castillo's in Peru late 2022. Withdrawal of military from Assembly after it voted with quorum to end martial law reflects strength of dem norms. Nonetheless, with Assembly windows left broken by military, a genuine and volatile Auto-Coup attempt.

Assembly managed a quorum (190/300) and unanimously (incl. some ruling party members) and in constitutional order declared martial order was done. Military seems to be leaving, whether in line w chain of command or Speaker's admonition that they no longer had authority to be there. Hopeful signs

There are positive signs that the military rank and file aren't having it. They seem to be performing the role of taking control of Assembly in line with chain of command but without any real "oomph" or violence yet, late night Assembly meeting seems to begin to proceed at torturously slow pace