William Radaic

O fato de Conclave ter mais atores mexicanos do que Emília Perez me pegou um pouco

Modern supply chains don't look like trade theory 101!

They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs.

Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships.

1/

Our "Discrimination in the Formation of Academic Networks: A Field Experiment on #EconTwitter" with Pedro Sant'Anna and @brunoferman.bsky.social is now forthcoming in the

😀😀

American Economic Review Insights (@AEAjournals )

😀😀 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

your daily reminder that people don’t understand conditional iid

such a cool post
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/10/b...

1/ have been waiting for this paper for ages. Rounding is common in elicited beliefs (.50, .75…). Does it bias estimation of weights on prior (delta) and likelihood (beta)?
Yes: when rounding is less frequent, delta, beta are closer to 1 (=Bayes). A fix is given

I like Ryan’s paper and (obviously) I think complexity matters for behavior.

But I think Florian’s updating too much from one experiment. I want to see replications and results from ‘nearby’ designs before saying the lottery anomalies have nothing to do with risk.

Permanent designs like this can make bike infrastructure feel as natural and normal as sidewalks. Here’s a small city in Quebec (just west of Quebec City) with a population of 20,000.

Just published in Journal of Public Economics:

"From viewers to voters: Tracing Fox News’ impact on American democracy"

By @elliottash.bsky.social, Sergio Galletta, Matteo Pinna, & Christopher S. Warshaw.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Abstract of paper

Economic valuations fluctuate in ways empirical research cannot fully explain

What information are we missing? Economic theories emphasize the role of hard-to-quantify beliefs and perceptions

My job market paper develops algorithms + measurement to quantify perceptions of firms

760 empresas num universo de 14.492 empresas concentraram mais de 50% dos benefícios.

152 empresas ainda maiores absorveram 1/3 das isenções do perse.

O programa foi feito para os grandes, não para os pequenos e médios.Pode se discutir o mérito, mas o público alvo é desperdício de dinheiro público

I am on the job market, which seems like a great opportunity for my first post on here! My job market paper is about failures of contingent thinking -- the act of reasoning about hypothetical events. 1/

My favorite kind of behavioral economics. Take a simple deviation from the standard properties of learning and explore all of its strategic implications.

Prof. Matthew Rabin (Harvard Econ & HBS) is hiring pre-docs! The position is ideal for candidates interested in psychologically-grounded economic theory. Details here:
drive.google.com/file/d/1TY1e...
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/14382
#EconSky #econ_ra

awesome, thanks!!

#EconSky: does Bluesky have a centralized account for publishing/sharing open pre-doc and RA positions? Similar to (at)econ_ra on Twitter

your daily lesson on framing effects

Today seems like a good day to share this Scientific American story on how vaccines have saved more lives throughout history than any other intervention

www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-...

Super cool that someone has actually estimated the environmental benefits of OPEC: about a trillion per decade!

www.nber.org/papers/w3311...

i think they meant “the world’s stupidest construction project”

I teach a class on data science here at Illinois and during the seminar I host a competition for the class called "The Hunt for the Worst Data Visualization."

This was my most popular post on Xitter, so reproducing some of the best submissions from previous years here:

Mexico–U.S. Immigration: Effects of Wages and Border Enforcement Abstract. In this article, I study how relative wages and border enforcement affect immigration from Mexico to the U.S. To do this, I develop a discrete ch

Tariffs will lead to more immigration.
Why?
Because tariffs can reduce salaries on the other side of the border and the evidence shows that "a 10% increase in Mexican wages reduces migration rates and durations"
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...

With apologies to @xkcd.com, I can think of no other way to describe the current hellscape of election takes

We observe a general decrease of null results across most fields in the post-2000 period. Highest levels: Fields such as Econometrics and Behavioural Economics report higher shares of null results. Health Economics shifted from least to one of the highest reporter of Nulls.

Health economics is doing something right

(via @prashantgarg.bsky.social @trfetzer.com www.causal.claims)

brasileiro 2 horas depois da eleição: CHUPA CIRO GOMES

estadunidense 2 horas da eleição: seu voto chegou no centro de distribuição de cajamar

Print da lista de bets autorizadas. Aqui tem Odd Fair, Única Bet, Bicho no Pix e Claro Bet.

bicho no pix fodase

@andreeler.bsky.social

Leiam o desabafo do Gil Riella no Lattes. Foi um melhores usos daquele espaço para a biografia do pesquisador

construiu sua base, influência e agenda *fora* das instituições tradicionais. marçal joga por fora, tirar ele do debate não resolve (e pode até piorar por dar suposta razão às suas pautas anti-institucionais)