Max Van Wyk de Vries

And on Thursday I am presenting some thoughts on the need for multihazard databases, and how we might go about designing these.

"A relational disaster database to document and resolve multihazard interactions"

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

#EGU25

Please come along to these presentations to learn more and get in touch if you’d like to have a chat with me or any of the group – we’re always open to building new collaborations.

If you’re interested in applying for postdocs, fellowships, PhDs in Cambridge I am happy to talk this through as well.

Lorenzo is presenting an update on a new and much-improved software (python, open source) package for monitoring landslide movement from optical data.

"A Workflow for Monitoring Ground Deformations through Spaceborne Optical Offset Tracking"

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

#EGU25

Chen is presenting some promising new modelling results integrating the pore pressure response to dilatancy in MPM landslide simulations.

"Improved landslide runout prediction by integrating the pore pressure response to dilatancy"

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

#EGU25

Joshua is presenting some exciting new work on the role of trust in influencing resilience. Special shout-out as he is tuning in from Dominica in the middle of the night!

"The role of trust in influencing natural hazard resilience "

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

#EGU25

On Tuesday, we have three great presentations from PhD Joshua Nicholas, PhD Ye Chen, and postdoc Lorenzo Nava.

If you’re interested in hearing more about the South Lhonak Lake work please check out Ashim’s talk on Wednesday that Louie and I are also involved in:

"The South Lhonak GLOF Cascade of October 2023, Sikkim Himalaya "

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

#EGU25

Louie Bell (PhD) is presenting this morning on our work understanding the precursors of the South Lhonak Lake GLOF.

"Pre-Glacial Lake Outburst Flood moraine deformation at South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim, from optical satellite feature-tracking "

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

#EGU25

Looking forward to seeing many of you at #EGU25 this year.

Keep an eye out for some presentations from our Cambridge Complex and Multihazard group (www.comhaz.com):

Also worrying news for penguins as a second stronghold of theirs, the Falkland Islands, is hit with a 41% tariff (??)

Bad news for Heard Island as the US imposes a 10% tariff on its main export - windborne glaciovolcanic tephra. This is viewed as a boost for local Alaskan and Cascadia sources.

Particularly serious implications for very fine grain sizes as the crypto(tephra) market is volatile at the best of times.

Ah no, just accidentally flipped the North arrow. The positions are correct. The figure below is correct now.

Again, all data is online here (doi.org/10.5281/zeno...). If you have any questions about the use of this or the processing chain, please do reach out.

The fault terminates quite abruptly at the northern end (very close to the Irrawaddy) but gradually to the South. The southern termination is quite a bit further than some estimates I have seen, likely somewhere just west of Penwegon.

The surface rupture passes within only a few hundred metres of the two main international airports in the region (Mandalay and Nyapyidaw), in each case with around 5 m of total slip.

The maps show horizontal displacements in metres in the EW and NS directions. The fault ruptured by several metres over a distance of almost 500km with total slip was highest close to the largest city in the region, Mandalay.

Very sad to see the damage from the earthquake in Myanmar. My thoughts are with all affected by this disaster.

Understanding where and how much the fault slipped can help with damage assessments, so we've made some preliminary estimates from S2 (data: doi.org/10.5281/zeno...)

📢 New blog! Read about @lekaa-shree.bsky.social's work on dataset scarcity & algorithmic bias in AI in healthcare. With collaborators in Cambridge & Uganda, Lekaa has examined challenges & is planning a virtual resources hub to improve bias mitigation strategies.

bit.ly/41Shq7X

All hazards are multihazards, few of them are natural Article author Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries proposes a redefinition to remove the divide between natural and human processes and emphasise the importance of a multihazard perspective for effective dis...

It is open access, and you can also get the pdf from preventionweb if you prefer www.preventionweb.net/publication/...

All hazards are multihazards, few of them are natural - npj Natural Hazards npj Natural Hazards - All hazards are multihazards, few of them are natural

New perspective article discussing how we define natural hazards in today's world.

Key message: a barrier between 'human' and 'natural' events is often unhelpful, and we must consider the interaction between multiple hazards in all cases.

www.nature.com/articles/s44304-025-00071-w

"You can't have your lake and eat it"

Add a sprinkle of cumin seeds, coriander, and turmeric to your basalt then chill rapidly for a perfect pilau lava.

1m lidar data showing various landslides.

The 'alternative' A628 route has its own set of landslides as well... We've got a small project (with @britgeosurvey.bsky.social) looking at some of these landslide-road interactions and disruptions to transport on a national scale.

Indeed, disasters are never natural. And sometimes, the hazards themselves are not either...

Enjoyed working with many great people here including
@glacier-hazards.bsky.social
@kristencook.bsky.social
@watershedlab.bsky.social
@topotoolbox.bsky.social
@shahidyounis.bsky.social
@sgascoin.bsky.social
@irfansalroo.bsky.social
@etienneberthier.bsky.social
@davepetley.bsky.social
& many more!

Expertly led by @GlacierHazards, and with a wide team of authors from around the world, this work has pulled together an exceptional range of data to build an understanding of how and why this multihazard cascade occurred – and some clues as to how we might reduce future risk.

This GLOF was initiated by the failure of a lateral moraine into a part of the lake that didn’t even exist 10 years ago. The resulting flood swept downstream – all the way across the border to Bangladesh – causing widespread destruction and leaving over 100 dead and missing.

Our paper on the 2023 S. Lhonak GLOF & multihazard cascade, out today in Science!

This ‘natural’ hazard had the fingerprints of human activity all over it: climate change, glacier retreat, permafrost degradation, and hydropower dam breach.

Read here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

New paper led by Alex Dunant on innovative strategies for multihazard modelling!

The approach uses a computationally efficient network-based model to simulate cascading interactions between hazards (e.g. earthquake-landslide) and the resulting impacts.

Read more here: doi.org/10.5194/nhes...

CoMHaz All hazards are multihazards. But in today's world are any hazards truly natural? How are hazard and risk expected to evolve over the coming decades under climate change and other anthropogenic change...

Hello and great to see so many people already here!

For those I haven't met yet, I am Max Van Wyk de Vries, Assistant Prof in Natural Hazards in Cambridge - here for the discussion on hazard, risk management, remote sensing, and all things science.

More about what we do here: www.comhaz.com/home