Jeff Berardelli

I post this not as an expert on NE weather (at least anymore) but because this model is not available to most folks. And truth be told, it’s not really a surprise, we’ve been watching this for days. Stay tuned!!

BUT seriously it has some modest support from the Euro AI. While I can’t imagine it’s not overdone, it lends a clue to a stronger trend Sunday into Monday for the I-95 / Northeast from DC, to Philly to NYC to Hartford to Boston. 2/

A surprise (major) snow storm for the Northeast?? That’s what the Hi-Res GRAF shows. First, a word of extreme caution - It is a big outlier! It’s vastly different from the other models. It could be out of its mind. I’d tell you how much snow it shows but I want to avoid a run on 🥖 and 🥛 lol. 1/

Parade of storms rocks the West Coast the next two weeks as moisture rides the edge of a #Pacific ridge. The heaviest dump will be early next week! More heavy #snow for the mountains! #storm #weather

Good news: No more cold for atleast the next 2 weeks. And any late season cold is typically not as cold. H/T @JustinWeather for the idea

2nd most severe winter in Central #Florida history! At least so far (tie). That’s the assessment of NOAA’s Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). Records go back to 1950. Severe #cold and multiple #freeze days have resulted in an estimated Billion dollars to FL Ag due to crop damage..

Wow. Update: 99% of #Florida now covered in #Drought!! 85% Severe. 43% Extreme. It’s going to be a tough fire season, unless we get good rain.
The rain Sunday night will help a little.

Each time a high or low is reached in a given city since 2020, it’s recorded as 1. If that same day’s high is reached again in that city in 2021 and say 2024, then that counts as 3 total.

This is some of the clearest evidence of how far we’ve pushed the planet off balance. The data for this map comes from NOAA ThreadEx by way of Climate Central. 4/

But look closely, the greatest imbalance is south & west, near the Gulf and also in the desert. The desert is drying, it’s easier to heat. The oceans are warming as they stockpile extra heat trapped by our now greenhouse gas laden atmosphere. 3/

In a normal climate the ratio would be equal, 1 to 1. The imbalance shows how humankind is now a powerful force of nature! Sure, on the local level, some of this is urban heat island effect, an obvious form of human-caused climate change. 2/

You may find this map shocking. The crazy imbalance even surprised me!
It’s the ratio of record highs vs record lows in each city since 2020. That’s right, in Miami there have been 115 daily record highs, but only 1 record morning low! Phoenix: 138 to 0!… 1/

Mistake in my last graphic. It’s 25% of FL covered in “Extreme” drought.

Overwhelming #cold & #freeze has caused extensive damage to our agriculture - ~Billion in losses - on top of extreme #drought has prompted a State of Emergency for #Florida. But what does that mean? It means our farmers will have access to help quickly, to ease the burden and minimize losses.

Thrilled north, Disappointment south, that’s the range of lawn emotions in #Florida as #rain finally arrives Sunday into Monday. #Drought relief for some, heartbreak 💔 for others.

The #storm parade continues in #Europe for the next 2 weeks. 200-300 mm more #rain on saturated ground.

Red means warmer than average. Now that the colder than average weather (blue) has taken up residence in the Arctic, the warm returns to fill the void over the US. #weather

Huge pattern flip underway, which sends the #cold back to Canada and brings the US a big and sustained #warm up for the next 2 weeks! These are temperature anomalies - departures from normal. 1/

Turns out, yes.

Same pattern, but I don’t have the rain data handy. I’ll look into it.

Desperate, crispy, crunchy, lawn? I hear you, so I did some deep digging.
Since Sept 1st it’s been THE DRIEST such period in 100+ years, as shown by the #’s. Map below shows it has pushed us into extreme #drought in record time. Going to be a precarious fire season late this Spring! #florida

Incredible: ~2500mm (78 inches) in 20 days - 1.5X the normal yearly rainfall in Grazalema, Spain and it’s only February. How? A 5000 mile Tropical Atmospheric River lifted by terrain in Southern Spain. H/T Nahel Belgherze #europe #flood #spain #weather

It’s all up hill from here!
I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for a thaw! For most around US and all of us in #Florida, warmth will build and last for the next 2 weeks. The exception: the West, chilly and snowy for the ski resorts. A win-win for all!

Lake Erie’s Ice sheet is near record ice cover due to extreme-prolonged cold, and as the wind increases behind a cold front the #ice cracks in half on satellite! #lakeerie #cleveland #buffalo #freeze

Waking up to another cold start today. But it’s the last of the 🥶
#florida weather returns this week! Who’s ready?!

…pictured here. Much drier than normal in #florida through April.
Thus, it will likely be a precarious fire season. Burn 🔥 bans are in effect.

Top: Extreme #drought has developed very early… it’s one of the driest periods on record this early in season. If there’s a spark, the ground is very flammable.
Bottom: We are in dry season, and a dry La Niña, so prospects for meaningful rain are limited as evidenced by the model prediction… 1/

The last week has been exceptionally amplified. The average temps for the 7 day stretch were 10-20° F above normal West, 10-15° East. That’s not an easy feat! 100s of records broken!

How out of the ordinary was the #Florida cold air outbreak last week? Look at the graph below… see that off the charts spike? On Miami’s record cold day, that’s 27°F below normal, far outside the 90 or 95% bars, and approx 5+ standard deviations from the mean! A very rare, even generational event.

Who’s ready for this?? I know I am.
Coming to a #Florida community near you next week! #warm #weather