Jeff Berardelli

Welp. Feeling good about living in FL right about now! #cold #frozen #chicago #florida

Today is Always a relief for us Floridians!
We and the nation got a much needed break this year. First season we’ve had no US landfalls in a decade.

Thus, if a storm tried to cross, before it got there, it would fall apart. It’s due to something called the Coriolis Force (caused by Earth’s rotation and its changing circumference at latitude) which increases north and south, but is zero at zero degrees. Image via NOAA.

On this LAST DAY OF HURRICANE SEASON, an interesting fact.
Did you know no tropical cyclone has ever crossed the Equator!? That’s because it’s physically impossible. Storms need “spin” to develop and survive. But at the Equator there is zero spin… 1/

Travel Alert: Big time issues at Midwest airports this weekend. Up to 15” in spots. Patience - something I don’t have - will be in high demand as delays cascade from Chicago/ Minneapolis outward from there.
Safe travels everyone! #snOMG #snowfall #blizzard

Florida Roller Coaster Ride starts today!
Heat Index mid 80s today, but wind chill in the 30s around I-4 northward on Friday morning.
45 degree swing in feels like temp!
(It does NOT affect the fruit)

Florida Cold Snap, Major Midwest Snow Storm?
Travel headaches. Let’s dig in… #snowfall #coldweather #florida #midwest #chicago

Fall will be “falling” this week with Wild weather swings across the East.
Makes holiday packing a pain with a 40-50° temperature swing from Mid to late week.

There are very few as far north as I-4. Temps from I-4 south will bottom out above 45°. Above 45° Iguana’s slow down, but typically they don’t go dormant.
If it drops any lower, we’ll issue a FIA Falling Iguana Alert!🙂 (which doesnt exist). Dormant iguana’s slowly start to move again when warmed.

Whew, that was close!
But it looks like Iguana’s will be Marked Safe, barely, on Friday, as temps fall just shy of critical levels. But, if you ask me, this guy is a little too overconfident.
Iguana’s live mostly South of the Sunshine Skyway...1/

Two miles of ice core on the shelf at our national ice core facility in Lakewood, Colorado. The WAIS Divide core from West Antarctica is a 3400m long (deepest US core, 2nd deepest ice core ever) 68,000 year old record of high resolution climate.

Weather Whiplash! Feeling like 80s Midweek -then- 30s by Friday morning in parts of #Florida A 40-50° feels like swing!
#weather #cold #winter #whiplash

Going Cold Turkey by Week’s End across the Eastern US!
Until then the warmth will persist here in Florida and the Southeast.

Fly-by Cold!
After a long stretch of very warm weather, a chilly blast arrives Friday! AM Wind chills in the 30s and 40s for Central and North Florida. Highs on Black Friday will struggle to get out of the 60s.
In true FL style, the chill will last 24 hours.
Don’t blink!

Baked Atlanta!
The SE and parts of #Florida baking today. Atlanta was 82, latest 82 on record. Heat persists through midweek.

Sorry Florida… No Rain Fo You!
(Well, techincally there will be a few drops over the next 2 weeks.)
And that’s too bad because we could really use a lot! Getting deeper into drought as the dry La Niña winter takes hold.

We have a tendency in weather to focus on the shiny object. Right now that shiny object is the cold, which is elusive.
The reality: over the past week, the US has seen a Blow Torch. 100s of heat records to just a dozen cold. The heat continues through midweek.

The exceptions: Northeast and CA.
(The cold will come, at first in quick shots, then likely more consistent mid-late Dec.)

While the entire weather enterprise - it seems - is focused on extreme US cold - which may take weeks to materialize, the country has been roasting. Over the past 7 days 100s of heat records have been broken, and the nation as a whole has been ~4F above normal. +20F near the Ark-La-Tx!!
1/

We are parched.

As it pertains to weather preference, Are you boots or bikini type?

Question is, how far south into Florida does the #cold air penetrate? Euro model is the most aggressive with 30s into the #Tampa Bay Area and 40s for parts of South FL.
Other models not as far south.
Stay tuned.

Looking ahead, once we get past a week of very warm weather through Thanksgiving, we are going Cold Turkey next weekend!
Models advertise a deep #freeze all the way south to #Florida! 1/

(Euro data not available). All other models were somewhere in between. Worth noting, on intensity, Andy Hazelton HAFS models kicked booty and were often the best/ close to the best in this arena.
Thanks to Brian McNoldy U Miami for his analysis.
(Error numbers are approximate)

On Melissa GFS 5-day error was 4X that of Google Deep Mind AI, our best model.
For the season Google AI track was 2X better than GFS.
@NHC_Atlantic knocked it out of the park again, using all the available info, and winning the season. It’s why we trust NHC, these folks are the best 2/

Hurricane forecasting: Humans are still King, but AI is catching up?!
Here’s a very simple & limited comparison 5 days out of the best and worst forecasts for #Melissa on left and the season on right.
Not to pile on the GFS/ American model, but it had a bad season overall... 1/

Big Polar Plunge across Europe as the jet stream takes a nose dive! Temps 10-20C below normal! Lots of snow in the mountains!!

While the weather world is focused on the expected big pattern shift and possible Arctic Outbreak after the Thanksgiving’s Turkey 🦃 deep fry, the nation’s middle is frying right now! Summery today at 25 degrees above normal, and 40 record highs!Dozens more through week’s end… (records via CoolWx)

They are so ashamed:)
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How exactly this will play out and what impacts it may have on our real weather on the ground varies from model to model. This is meant to educate on what the process can look like.
For more info, check out my post yesterday which describes in layman terms how these work and what impacts may follow