David Sher

Can we arrange for him to take over FIFA and leave the presidency? His talents (getting attention, stupendous corruption) make him an exceptional match for that role.

I remember VA-Gov 2017, where the polls had Northam generally leading but mostly by 1-5 points. Quinnipiac came in with Northam +9. Northam... won by 9. I doubt Spanberger's margin is 15, but it would not surprise me at all if it were comfortably in double digits.

Seems unequivocally good, no? If they buy Lederman's argument - and it's compelling - then the Guard just cannot be deployed under 12406(3) in the way they've been doing it. The military would have to be there (under a separate authority) and unable to handle things, which is very unlikely.

There is no causative association. There is a weak correlation, which people studied to see if it was causative, and proved conclusively that it isn't.

She. But... yeah, more or less.

No. That only got one vote. There was one vote for that position (Nelson, a Trump appointee). There was one vote for "the district judge got the facts wrong so he can do this" (Bade, Trump appointee). There was one vote for "this is bonkers of course he can't do this" (Gruber).

I was more encouraged after the argument than I expected to be. Perhaps I'm off base, but it seems to me like it will still be hard for Republicans to dismantle currently extant VRA districts (because the obvious remedy - returning to the old map - is not race-based).

No. This is one of those things that looks suspicious enough to indict on first glance but falls apart the minute you look at the defense evidence. Grand juries don't see the defense evidence. I doubt this makes it to trial.

This conduct is Norfolk-based, so Norfolk makes sense. It's a pretty diverse city - jury should be fair. And DOJ is probably furious about the judge assignment here (Biden appointee, Black, and openly LGBTQ).

What's with Kagan's surprisingly diplomatic dissent? Feels like this is a big separation-of-powers issue; unless I'm missing something, the majority is saying the ICA cannot be enforced by anyone except Congress. That's essentially granting the president a line-item veto. Why the pulled punches?

This is some serious Captain Queeg level nuttery.

How insane does your use of military power have to be in order for *John Yoo* of all people to question it? Seriously, this is bananas.

Donald Trump calls his political opponents enemies of the state *all the time*.

Sotomayor's dissent notes the praying-coach case and says that should settle it. This Court views coercion differently depending on the particular religion of those coercing/being coerced.

On a first reading of the opinion, it's not nuts at all. Wouldn't have been 3-0 otherwise. It makes clear that the president's power to federalize the Guard *is* reviewable and *is* limited - cannot do this in bad faith. It also respects the Posse Comitatus Act, which was not at issue here.

City of Richmond, early and absentee.

I'm very curious - why didn't the liberal justices write a dissent? Any insight?

Also, that tone, basically bragging about forcing Schakowsky out, is a mistake. Schakowsky is really well-respected in IL-9. Yes, it's time for her to retire, but dancing on her political grave is gross.

It'll be big money, yes, but Abughazaleh doesn't have much of a chance no matter how much she's raised. Too many good candidates on the bench here (Fine, Biss, etc.).

Yes. This is gross fascist propaganda. But it is not a real video from today.

This is Lancaster County. Not just a Trump +15 seat, a Trump +15 seat with basically no history of voting for Democrats at any level. That's solid Republican territory. This is a big deal.

Pritzker has been legitimately impressive, and he might be able to appeal to both moderates and progressives.

It always is. They led the state in early voting turnout in November.

The big mistake Schumer made here was not prepping beforehand. The side rejecting a clean CR in a shutdown fight always loses. That should be Rs here. But because Schumer has bad media/messaging strategy, this CR is being incorrectly treated as "clean". Once that happened, we lose no matter what.

People are often willing to ignore corruption if their personal economic situation is OK. But when the economy deteriorates, and the country's leaders are still raking in bribes while the rest of us struggle... watch out.

That's not actually correct. Ten million times five million is $50 trillion. (Of course, the "ten million" assumption is completely insane, which is the real problem.)

If a coalition depends on three partners, it's inherently more vulnerable than if it depends just on two. Anyone can blow it up over any issue at any time. We just saw this - the FDP pulled out of the "traffic light" coalition, which triggered this snap election.

BSW is going to be just under 5%. Something like 4.98% in the end. See bsky.app/profile/erik... . Amazing that the stability of the German government comes down to these margins...

And yep. The east one is in now and they're still short! Three western ones left.

I think they're going to be just a little tiny bit short. Their remaining East German circuit should give them about 16K votes, which is +8K relative to the 5% threshold. The eight western circuits, though, should take back about the same amount.