Susanne Spector

🇺🇸 USA-börserna lockar igen, menar @aktierobban.bsky.social.
Mer i dagens Börsmorgon där vi också pratar räntebesked med Annika Winsth och @susannespector.bsky.social

#finanssky

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Overall takeaway is that the outcome should worry the Riksbank and is a clear indication that the labour market is weak.

Inflation numbers out tomorrow will be more important, but it is clear that the Swedish economy needs more rate cuts.

The uptick in unemployment was unusually large and there is nothing that would warrant that kind of jump in January.

However, unemployment was likely underestimated in the fall due to many discouraged workers who now returned and the outcome in January was well in line with other indicators.

However, another worrying sign was that the number of temporary employed fell back in January.

Not much drama in the employment numbers.

High unemployment out from Sweden this morning where the LFS unemployment unexpectedly rose to 9.7 percent.

A single month should always be interpreted with caution, but the overall picture is that individuals who exited the labour market during the autumn have now returned.

Clearly higher than expected inflation out of Sweden this morning. Flash core inflation at 2.7 percent – much higher than consensus and the Riksbank’s view. We will have to wait for the details, but taken at first glance this number puts doubt on further cuts from the Riksbank.

The Swedish housing market is picking up some momentum on the back of rate cuts. Prices are up, as well as transaction volumes. But the share of total supply of homes on the market that are sold are still low, which makes the upturn a bit shaky.

Revisiting a bad Beveridge curve take And offering some hopefully better ones with medium confidence

Really interesting piece from @kevinrinz.bsky.social trying to reconcile the various (and to some degree conflicting) signals being sent by quits, openings and hires right now. #EconSky
kevinrinz.substack.com/p/revisiting...

Best two Econ books that are both fun to read and give you new insights, and that I recommend to all are:

1. Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist Who Navigated an Era of Upheaval by Jon Hilsenrath

2. Trillion Dollar Triage by @nicktimiraos.bsky.social

YouTube video by Sveriges riksbank Frukostseminarium om neutral ränta med vice riksbankschef Anna Seim

The Riksbank’s new assessment of the nominal neutral rate is an interval between 1.5 to 3 percent.

Full seminar (in Swedish): m.youtube.com/watch?v=5dn2...

Since when did Black Friday last like a month? Tell me you have no pricing power anymore without...

Very interesting, thanks!

I agree and it’s a bit at odds with the Beveridge curve framework as well where you have new vacancies and the unemployment rate at the same time but if you do a very simple optimal lead/lag you seem to end up with the six month lead for the macro variables.

Yes, the unemployment rate and the employment growth, the variables that most people care about. In a strict sense, new vacancies are of course a big part of the labor market so that was perhaps a bit unclear.

New vacancies typically lead
the labor market by 6 months. The fact that we do not yet see a clear turnaround in demand for labor suggests that forecasts of recovery early next year may be too optimistic.

👋

Despite the fact that the Riksbank has cut interest rates by 125 basis points this year, there are no signs that demand for labor is about to gear up.

The weekly statistics so far in November show that new job vacancies remain subdued.

The Swedish labor market continued to weaken in October.

▫️Employment declined by 0.2% and the employment rate fell further
▫️ The unemployment rate also declined to 8.4% due to a drop in the labor force by 0.5% over the month
▫️ Weaker than forecast and underscores the risks to the expected recovery