Sierkovitz

I’m starting to think he’s doing it on purpose - you can’t be that bad in killing Magic.

He’s been trying to kill it for 30 years and the game is alive and well.

Elemental mistake

When realise that you accidentally ordered 8 Sunderflocks on Friday instead of 4.

I wrote several different tweets trying to express the sadness I feel of Kai's passing. None of them did him justice.

It is impossible to overstate what an inspirational figure he was for aspiring players in the early 00s.

Rest in peace.

Pretending antisemitism doesn't exist never proved to be a good idea - agree i should have bleeped out the slur though.

Did you hear of "Magic players react to Hasbro being sued by some shareholders for overprinting cards-political compass"?

what is capitalism in its current incarnation if not control and cruelty?

I have the feeling that a lot (not all of) commander phenomenon is body stopping people from getting better at magic.

What did they think was powerful?

Best conspiracies - they are easily disproven. The original thread was based on someone having a gut feeling Power is never in the same pack with other power. if they didn't have the gut feeling - I'd never check.

As long as people don't double down after it is disproved - all is good.

Hope you enjoy this expansion of my previous thread - you can read the original here:

bsky.app/profile/sier...

11/11

Lastly - those are the cards that are least likely to get passed in packs 2 and 3 by the all Arena players. Shows the gap in value between power (minus Timetwister) and regular cards. Mana Crypt - the least popular piece of power - gets passed 23% of time. Vault - 60%.

10/11

What do people pick over power? Here are the 15 cards most commonly picked over the power by 17Lands users. As you can see - mainly it is the who is who of Boros decks, plus some archetype defining cards like Academy and Reanimate. Arid Mesa was picked over Lotus only once.

9/11

Interesting hypothesis based on the data - average Arena cube player is engaged in commander. Apart from the Lotus, the piece of power that gets passed the least is Sol Ring - card familiar to any EDH player. My idea is that familiarity helps correctly picking it.

8/11

Difference is stunning in case of mana artifacts. Average Arena user is 50-150% more likely to pass one of those.
Even 17Lands user pass Moxen at 8-10% rate - way to high than the optimum, which is around 0%.

Lotus earns its respect with 1.7 - 4.1% pass rate.

7/11

The result is fascinating. Both group are close in their valuing of blue spells. Twister is obviously passed a good three quarters of the time, Ancestral - one in six times, Time Walk - 15%. 17Lands users are a bit less likely to pass those, but difference is small.

6/11

Another question I had was: how often does power get passed. There are two answers to this question.
1st: how often Arena players pass power
2nd: how often17Lands users pass power
And those numbers are quite different.
Keep in mind - this is data from P2 and P3 only.

5/11

Even more importantly: if shenanigans were linked to the power 11 cards, all of the 11 of them can be found at one extreme of the bel curve. This is just not the case. So we can confidently confirm that the rate power cards drop is same as drop rate of other cards.

4/11

Standard deviation of the data set is 50, so you would expect ~2.3% of the cards (~12 cards) to be 100 more than the average and ~2.3% of them 100 less than average.

If there were any shenanigans - we would see a large number of cards at one of the tails of the bell curve. We don't.

3/11

I looked at all cube drafts in 17L data repository and this is indeed true - the distribution of how many copies were opened is close to the bell curve.

Average number of copies is 2675, but some cards were opened only 2525 times, some 2845 times. This is expected.

2/11

Some more Arena Powered Cube data for your pleasure.
One fan from Denver, Colorado asked: is it possible that power 11 cards (see thread linked at bottom for explanation) are seen in packs more often.

In theory, each card should be opened at the same rate.

1/11

YouTube video by Sierkovitz Magic Numbers #175: Early 17Lands Draft Data for Lorwyn Eclipsed

New magic Numbers are up and it's the ones most of you like to see - the early data for Lorwyn Eclipsed is here. see which colours / cards win the most while I try to sneakily smuggle in my hypotheses about the format's rules of engagement.

youtu.be/_XvxPkpwZrQ

i didn't see Ernest Borgeight

New magic Numbers: Early Data for Lorwyn Eclipsed live now - join me at twitch now to get some foothold in the new format.

twitch.tv/sierkovitz

It was bound to happen

The Wire - season 5. Literally. Importance of local press can't be overstated. instead people are keen on getting angry about invented things somewhere far away they have no good way of verifying.

Which, judging by the title, is about raising a living child.

Sierkovitz I analyze Magic: the Gathering data and use them to improve our general understanding of the game. To do so I need copious amounts of coffee... You get the hint?

Approach the early numbers with caution. Win rates are still based on imperfect decks, people are still figuring stuff out, pick orders are still changing.

Still worth getting this info.

If you enjoyed it - consider buying me a coffee.

buymeacoffee.com/sierkovitz

The top 10 is finished off with some Elf synergy cards (though Adherents I can see being also solid in Kithkin decks) and a generically powerful, but potentially back-breaking in Elementals, Rimekin Recluse.

12/13

Another broad category are the lords. Straightforward ones in case of Merfolk and Elves and a bit more synergistic in case of the Kithkin. Merfolk are low power and their lord is looking like a key card - maybe lack of a lord is one of the reasons small Goblins win less?

11/13