Johannes Boehm

Further unraveling: we'll see, I'm not that optimistic. I would have preferred it if the US had unilaterally withdrawn from the WTO. I agree on incidence.

Yes, that's exactly what I'm worried about (but it will take 5-10y to evaluate). The EU is effectively showing the middle finger to MFN.

But at the price of sacrificing the world trading system...

If this is accurate, then unless the EU eliminates all tariffs on industrial imports from all its WTO partners, it will be joining Trump in destroying the international trade rules that have applied since WW2. The difference being that while Trump hates the rule-based order the EU claims to value it

Today's trade deal between the US and the EU -- if as reported in the press, and if independent from other agreements -- is a massive mistake on the EU's side. Instead it should have called Trump's bluff. Trump would not have imposed 30% on EU imports for long.

"Contracts as reference points"?

Does that mean that the 'mistake' was merely to use this particular justification, and if they find a somewhat less creative justification, there is little that the courts would do to stop tariffs?

Thank you ‪to @peterfrankopan.bsky.social‬ for discussing our paper on his terrific substack blog: peterfrankopan.substack.com/p/coins-in-t...

The real Austrian response is "depends on who's asking" :)

Whenever you need a model/estimator that isn't already available in 'canned' form (i.e. whenever you need to write the optimization problem yourself). If you stick with OLS/IV/PPML/logit/probit your're usually fine w/ R or stata.

They can't; the Calvo fairy didn't let them today

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Thank you! The CEPR discussion paper version is gated; here's the ungated (and up-to-date) draft: jmboehm.github.io/coins.pdf

Trade and the End of Antiquity featured in today's Chartbook Top Link.

Call for papers: @theigc.bsky.social/@yaleegc.bsky.social conference on Firms/Trade/Development, Oct. 24-25, 2025.

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On 14th April, as part of a first of a series of events, nine Institute professors gave briefings, tying their expertise to the the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second presidency and its global implications.
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That document is very unclear about this

There is still a time to apply for our Master in International Economics

Third and final deadline on April 15

@gvagrad.bsky.social @dominic-rohner.bsky.social @johannesmboehm.bsky.social

Please repost

Dekle, Eaton, Kortum (2007): "We incorporate imbalances into a quantitative model of bilateral trade, calculating how relative factor costs and welfare would change if current accounts were all balanced." US welfare declines 6%.

pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

Just such beautiful variation though

1/ NEW RESEARCH: Our study reveals 46% of pesticides embedded in EU agricultural consumption originate from imports, despite imports constituting only 17% of consumption. This includes substances prohibited in the EU. This regulatory gap fuels leakage effects and hurts EU competitiveness 🧵

The research group at the Workd Bank is doing an off-cycle hire for a trade economist worldbankgroup.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...

I gave a talk in Edinburgh a few weeks ago and had a great time. They have a fantastic group.

Europe is about to make its biggest strategic mistake [FREE TO READ] Control over Moscow’s blocked foreign reserves empowers the EU to shape how the Ukraine war ends

Europe is about to commit its greatest strategic mistake. on.ft.com/4bVGZZ9

On Europe as a destination for US-based scientists: it's a great place to live and work. Salaries aren't as high as US ones, but for seniors they're fine and we live well. (More could be done for juniors in some states.) We get European benefits. And the ERC offers great support for top researchers.

Congratulations!!

Not in a neoclassical/ricardian world, I guess. To be clear, I wasn't advocating this policy, it might just be a perspective that's consistent with some of Trump's statements.

It's hard to know how much he really cares about that though (as with pretty much everything else he's been saying)

Another (charitable) interpretation is that they're trying to create so much uncertainty about tariffs that it ends up working like a tariff, but without the retaliation. (That would be consistent with Trump viewing import tariffs as "good for America" and the retaliation as "bad for America")

And also one of the best paper titles in the history of IO ("how to get away with merger")