Maya Ungar

Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...

Important podcast episode on what is next for Venezuela.

Fresh off the press from @crisisgroup.org.

www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

U.N. Security Council to Make First Official Visit to Syria and Lebanon

I spoke to @nytimes @farnazfassihi about the Council's trip to Syria and Lebanon. 👇

www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/w...

NEWS from @crisisgroup.org.

After 7 years as UN Director, I'm moving to a new program on Global Issues and Institutions.

@fortid.crisisgroup.org becomes Head of UN Affairs, backed by @mayaungar.bsky.social.
.
AND we need a Senior Analyst covering geopolitics 👇
jobs.crisisgroup.org/o/analyst-gl...

UN Lifts Sanctions on Syria’s President as White House Visit Beckons | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Maya Ungar analyses the U.S.-led diplomatic push ahead of a planned meeting between Ahmed al-Sharaa and Donald Trump

NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | UN Lifts Sanctions on Syria’s President as White House Visit Beckons

@mayaungar.bsky.social analyses the U.S.-led diplomatic push ahead of a planned meeting between Ahmed al-Sharaa and Donald Trump.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Russian Ambassador in NY just held a stakeout on snapback.

When pushed to answer if Rus would implement sanctions on Iran again, he evaded, instead saying "how can [sanctions] be introduced if the snapback being launched right now is illegal."

webtv.un.org/en/asset/k1u...

Iran Sanctions Snapback at the UN | International Crisis Group The UK, France and Germany are preparing to trigger reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran unless Tehran agrees to restore international monitoring and negotiate restrictions on its nuclear program. In ...

There is still some (slim) hope of a deal within the next 30 days. And, world leaders descending on NY later this month for a week of UNGA diplomacy could be an opportunity.

For more details, check out @crisisgroup.org’s most recent article. (9/9)

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

This could lead to some states recognizing the legitimacy of the sanctions, and others not

That raises the question of whether or not Iran will feel the need to withdraw from the NPT, as they have threatened.

Withdrawal could trigger a significant response from Israel/US.

Russia is likely to also try to block the monitoring of sanctions on Iran, including by: 

2⃣ putting a hold on the appointment of a chair to oversee the sanctions committee
2⃣ blocking the appointment of a Panel of Experts to monitor the sanctions.

The E3 have not withdrawn from the JCPOA, but Rus is arguing that the E3 “chronically violated that resolution and the JCPOA; therefore, they no longer have any right to engage that mechanism”.

No surprise, but the E3 strongly disagree.

docs.un.org/en/S/PV.9944

If this does happen, it is likely to be contested. Rus has already laid the groundwork to try to delegitimize the E3 right to snapback

How can they do so? In 2020, the U.S. tried to snapback sanctions but other states denied them (since they withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018)

Then, parties have 30 days (from the original notification) for last-ditch diplomacy before a vote.

If the vote is vetoed, or fails to gain the necessary 9 votes to pass, then snapback commences and all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran are restored.

👇 below for list of sanctions👇

Today, the E3 (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧) triggered snapback. Here are the next steps.

First, a Council member needs to draft a resolution to essentially ignore the snapback. If no one does within ten days, the Council President (🇰🇷) will do so.

Quick background — in 2015, the Council passed UNSCR 2231, endorsing the JCPOA and pausing UN sanctions on Iran.

The res included a “snapback” mechanism, allowing any of the parties (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺) to reinstate sanctions if there was “significant non-performance of commitments”

Iran Sanctions Snapback at the UN | International Crisis Group The UK, France and Germany are preparing to trigger reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran unless Tehran agrees to restore international monitoring and negotiate restrictions on its nuclear program. In ...

The E3 just snapped back sanctions on Iran. What happens next?

A quick 🧵, based on this very helpful article by my colleagues @icg_iran & @FortiD. (1/9)

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Almost no news in NBC's 50-minute Lavrov interview, an avalanche of Kremlin talking points ("2014 coup", "Nazis") and denials "no civilian targeting", "no Bucha"). Lavrov seemed uncharacteristically nervous, twisting a paper clip for a good part of the interview.

Helping UNIFIL Restore Stability in Southern Lebanon | International Crisis Group The mandate for the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon is up for renewal at the end of August. Israel and the U.S. dispute the force’s utility, but it continues to play a key role in stabilising the p...

UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping op for Lebanon, is up for renewal this month. 🇺🇳🇱🇧

The U.S. wants to renew it for one year, then shutter its doors.

@crisisgroup.org's @davidrobwood explains why that would be a mistake, and what the Council should do instead.👇

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

From economy of occupation to economy of genocide - (A/HRC/59/23) Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967 (Advance unedited... To learn more about Special Procedures of the UN Human Rights Council and the Question of Palestine, click here to visit the dedicated webpage. Human Rights Council Fifty-ninth session 16 June–11 July...

Her recent report, "From Economy of Occupation to Economy of Genocide" appears to have been the trigger for this decisions.

This official UN report names and shames 48 corporations which "have fueled and legitimised the destruction of Palestine"👇

www.un.org/unispal/docu...

From economy of occupation to economy of genocide - (A/HRC/59/23) Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967 (Advance unedited... To learn more about Special Procedures of the UN Human Rights Council and the Question of Palestine, click here to visit the dedicated webpage. Human Rights Council Fifty-ninth session 16 June–11 July...

The U.S. just announced sanctions on the UN Special Rapporteur for Palestine -- @franceskalbs.bsky.social -- for her efforts to "prompt ICC action" against the U.S. and Israel.

The U.S. ends their remarks at the Security Council warning that "Iran's leadership would be wise to negotiate at this time"

Bosnia in Deadlock as Serbs Strain for Exit | International Crisis Group Once again, leaders of the majority-Serb entity Republika Srpska are threatening to break away from Bosnia. While tensions between the entity and Sarajevo are longstanding, national collapse may be cl...

"Once again, leaders of the majority-Serb entity Republika Srpska are threatening to break away from Bosnia.

While tensions between the entity and Sarajevo are longstanding, national collapse may be closer than ever before." 👇

www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

NEW COMMENTARY | Bosnia in Deadlock as Serbs Strain for Exit

Once again, leaders of the majority-Serb entity Republika Srpska are threatening to break away from Bosnia. National collapse may be closer than ever before.

www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

Exclusive: US warns against attending UN conference on Israel-Palestinian two-state solution U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is discouraging governments around the world from attending a United Nations conference next week in New York on a possible two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.

The U.S. is ramping up its pressure to scare countries off from recognising Palestine during the Two State Solution Conference at the UN next week, sending a cable warning they "could face diplomatic consequences from the U.S."

www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Europe on Gaza: Words Are Not Enough | International Crisis Group A rising chorus of European states have condemned Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip after months of siege and bombardment. While much depends on Washington, European leaders have levers at ...

❗Important new @crisisgroup.org statement on #EU, #Gaza & #Israel.

Words are not enough.
For EU governments to help change Israel’s policy, they need to throw more of their economic and diplomatic weight into signalling to Israel that the Gaza campaign must end.

bit.ly/3FFM0t5

The UN Dodges a Diplomatic Breakdown over Sanctions | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Maya Ungar on UN Security Council votes on sanctions on South Sudan and enforcement of Libya’s arms embargo

🇺🇳 ‘The case for the status quo won out. But neither result marks an end to sceptics’ efforts to chip away at UN sanctions regimes.’

@mayaungar.bsky.social unpacks the UN Security Council votes on sanctions on South Sudan and enforcement of Libya’s arms embargo.

www.crisisgroup.org/global-south...

The UN Dodges a Diplomatic Breakdown over Sanctions | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Maya Ungar on UN Security Council votes on sanctions on South Sudan and enforcement of Libya’s arms embargo

✍️ My quick take for @crisisgroup.org on how last week's UNSC votes on South Sudan and Libya reflect on the broader sanctions debate at the UN.

www.crisisgroup.org/global-south...

Congratulations to the five newly elected members of the UN Security Council, set to join in January: Bahrain 🇧🇭, Colombia 🇨🇴, DRC 🇨🇩, Latvia 🇱🇻 & Liberia 🇱🇷.

They will be replacing Algeria 🇩🇿, Guyana 🇬🇾, ROK 🇰🇷, Sierra Leone 🇸🇱 & Slovenia 🇸🇮.

Ukraine’s Drone Blitz Seeks to Shift Balance in Talks | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov on the effects and timing of Operation Spiderweb.

"Kyiv’s message to Moscow is that while Russian forces may be able to advance on the battlefield, the longer the war continues, the more Russia will suffer – meaning it is better to agree now to concessions at the negotiating table."

@crisisgroup.org reacts👇
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

Ukraine’s Drone Blitz Seeks to Shift Balance in Talks | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov on the effects and timing of Operation Spiderweb.

It's about the negotiations, folks. Quick take on Ukraine's latest Operation Spiderweb drone attack by @crisisgroup.org's Oleg Ignatov

Dear UNSC, lifting South Sudan arms embargo would be reckless Lifting the arms embargo now would signal the government to escalate offensives unchecked and push the opposition to brace for renewed conflict.

The Security Council has renewed the arms embargo on South Sudan, with a vote of 9-6-0.

@jongethon.bsky.social and I wrote about the importance of the renewal this year in the @The_EastAfrican👇

theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/opinion/...

A People’s Court? Weighing Mexico’s First Elections for Judges | International Crisis Group Mexico will soon become the only country in the world to elect all its judges. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert David Mora explains the rationale behind the initiative – and its many potential pitfall...

On Sunday, Mexico will be choosing close to 2,600 judges – a first in the country and the world. The election has been deeply dividing and turnout will be low. In this @crisisgroup.org Q&A we dive into the controversial move and the potential outcomes for the violence crisis and sky-high impunity.