@dmoravera.bsky.social
Investigative reporter/researcher. Now digging into conflict and violence in Mexico for @crisisgroup.org
Hoy no se puede hablar de la naturaleza del conflicto armado en #Colombia sin reconocer que hay niños y niñas obligados a participar en todas sus dimensiones.
Hoy, escribo en @elpaisamerica.bsky.social sobre el reclutamiento de menores @latam.crisisgroup.org
elpais.com/america-colo...
MAÑANA | Nuevo informe
11.02.2026 20:54 — 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0Beyond the motive, these attacks show the conflict is far from over. Government intervention remains largely reactive, entire communities still under the sway of criminal outfits, and victims still need to see justice (and 1000s disappeared need to be found)
11.02.2026 18:02 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0A third hypothesis: a show of force. Chapitos may be engaging in high-profile attacks to counter the narrative that they’re losing. They have lost significant territory to Mayos, including parts of southern Sinaloa, where the miners were taken.
11.02.2026 18:02 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Extortion, then? Possible. Mining in the area, large and small ops, is often taxed derecho de piso. Criminal groups sometimes take over operations, especially smaller ones. But to sustain that theory, we’d need to know whether the company had faced prior threats.
11.02.2026 18:02 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0That explanation feels too simplistic. (1) At this stage of the Chapitos/Mayos/Other factions fighting, violence is highly targeted, not random. (2) The victims were miners, an identifiable group with ties to foreign interests. That’s not an easy error to make.
11.02.2026 18:02 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Violence in Sinaloa hasn’t stopped. In just two weeks: mass kidnappings and overtly political attacks. The MX gov says Chapitos were behind them. On the abduction of 10 miners (at least 5 killed), Sec. Harfuch said it was a case of mistaken identity, Chapitos allegedly thought they were with Mayos.
11.02.2026 18:02 — 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
This weekend, #Haiti entered a third chapter in its political transition since the 2021 slaying of President Jovenel Moïse.
As the presidential council’s mandate expired, Prime Minister Didier Fils-Aimé became the sole head of the executive.
Here’s what happened and what might come next 🔽
📒 NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | U.S. Gunboats Patrol Haiti’s Waters amid Wrangling over a New Government
Crisis Group expert @diegodarin.bsky.social assesses the political deadlock in Haiti and the motives behind the deployment of U.S. naval vessels off Port-au-Prince.
📽️ NEW VIDEO | Living in Fear: How Gang Violence Is Reshaping Ecuador
Crisis Group’s expert @glaeldys.bsky.social explains why Ecuadorian criminal groups have grown so precipitously since 2021, and the impact of the government’s strategy to deploy the military to combat insecurity.
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Mexico Seeks to Placate White House with Mass Criminal Transfer
David Mora assesses the latest handover of convicts and criminal suspects amid threats of U.S. military action on Mexican soil.
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/latin-am...
Following days of increasingly strident demands from U.S. President Donald Trump for concrete results in Mexico’s anti-crime fight, President Claudia Sheinbaum on 20 January transferred 37 members of criminal groups to U.S. custody.
22.01.2026 02:24 — 👍 19 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 1
#Mexico transferred 37 prisoners to the US in a move to quell tensions, as Washington once again threatens strikes on drug trafficking groups
Yet renditions to the US have tended to escalate violence in Mexico. My colleague @dmoravera.bsky.social explains 👇
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/latin-am...
Delivering results for Trump is not necessarily delivering for the folks here who've bear the brunt of conflict here. Much more needs to be addressed beyond more high-profile transfers.
btw, this is the view from where I am:
A displaced community leader told me he’s returned home now that Mayos control the area (and the many legal/illegal industries here: logging, mining, cattle, traffic routes). He expects less violence now but many neighbors haven’t come back yet: health workers, teachers, entire families.
20.01.2026 21:38 — 👍 8 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0I just visited Sinaloa's sierra sur and violence hasn’t eased in there. January is on track to be one of the deadliest months since the cartel split. Fighting has spread beyond Culiacán, with Mayos advancing into former Chapitos land.
20.01.2026 21:38 — 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0The transfer will also barely change reality on the ground. Among those transferred are key Sinaloa figures, including Pedro Insunza Coronel. He’s one of the first suspects charged under Trump 2.0 with narcoterrorism and providing material support to an FTO. Mex forces captured him on Dec 31.
20.01.2026 21:38 — 👍 10 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0The move helps Sheinbaum immediately but tension among the two govs remain. The Trump admin has implied that Sheinbaum’s strategy to double down on drug seizures, captures and decline of homicides is “unacceptable incremental progress” – further pushing the idea of U.S. forces on the ground.
20.01.2026 21:38 — 👍 10 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0Sheinbaum just handed over 37 cartel suspects to U.S. custody. After the U.S. attack in Caracas, Mexico needs to deliver clear wins for Trump to further deter any U.S. unilateral military move. This is it. Some quick thoughts from Sinaloa, where I am doing fieldwork this week:
20.01.2026 21:38 — 👍 16 🔁 7 💬 1 📌 1
After US operations in Venezuela, the ELN has taken steps to ensure its interests are safe, regardless what happens in Caracas.
Today I write in @nytopinion.nytimes.com, the ELN stands emboldened to threaten communities, Colombia, and US ambition in Venezuela 👇
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/o...
NUEVA DECLARACIÓN | Venezuela después de Maduro: ¿Transacción o transición?
EE.UU.ha decapitado al Gobierno venezolano. Su anuncio de que “gobernará” el país después de marginar a la oposición corre el riesgo de dejar a los venezolanos en una peor situación.
📑 NEW REPORT | Undoing Haiti’s Deadly Gang Alliance
A gang coalition has pushed violence in Haiti to alarming levels. As a new foreign force takes shape, plans must be in place not just to overpower criminal groups but also to persuade them to disband.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
EVENTO EN LÍNEA | Violencia y crimen organizado en #Ecuador
🗓️ 2 de diciembre | 10:00 Quito | 10:00 Nueva York | 16:00 Bruselas
Con Renata Segura, Glaeldys González, Karol Noroña y Guido Núñez.
Regístrese acá 🔽
www.crisisgroup.org/es/how-we-wo...
NEW REPORT | Paradise Lost? Ecuador’s Battle with Organised Crime
Ecuador was an oasis of calm as its South American neighbours descended into drug-related crime and conflict. No longer.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
@comfortero.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org talks Trump's campaign in Latam and Mx: “La solución no puede ser permitir nuevamente uso de fuerza excesivo desde el exterior, porque tiene repercusiones, como ya hemos visto en Sinaloa, con fragmentación de las fuerzas del crimen y aumento de violencia”
08.11.2025 20:12 — 👍 2 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
A changing landscape in the prevention and mediation of global conflicts - @comfortero.crisisgroup.org, President & CEO of @crisisgroup.org, on how shifting power dynamics, new actors, and rising instability are redefining the art of peacebuilding. www.youtube.com/live/azqt5RV...
06.11.2025 08:56 — 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Si estás en la Ciudad de México la próxima semana, no te pierdas este conversatorio con nuestra presidenta,
@comfortero.crisisgroup.org, sobre el nuevo panorama en la mediación y prevención de conflictos.
📅 5 de noviembre, 4:30 p.m.
📍 Sala 1, Unidad de posgrado, Ciudad Universitaria.
