Daniel Ofman

1/ How Statelets Die? I look at this question through the story of Nagorno-Karabakh - once one of the most “successful” de facto entities in the post-Soviet space, and today something no one even wants to remember. Link here: defactostates.ut.ee/how-statelet...

YouTube video by Steve Rosenberg What today's Russian papers are saying about the prospects for a Ukraine peace deal

Today’s Russian papers on chances of a peace deal: “Don't count on Russia making noticeable concessions.” But: “If proposals are acceptable to Russia, one could talk of a summit in Budapest.” Meanwhile, Russia’s “economic malaise betrayed by rise in wage arrears." #ReadingRussia

Monday morning re-up: thoughts on the current Ukraine negotiations including the whole 'trust' issue, and then how to draw a line between medieval Russians leaving milk and bread for the domovoi household spirit and modern Russian strategic culture...

FIFA awarding a "peace prize" to Trump would be so absolutely on-brand, a truly genius innovation.

Of all the interviews I've done about MOTHERLAND, this one was my favorite. Thank you, @kevinrothrock.me !

Ukraine hit Russian energy sites with US help Trump administration supported Kyiv’s operations since summer in co-ordinated push to weaken Moscow

“Three people familiar with the operation said Washington was closely involved in all stages of planning. A US official said Ukraine selected the targets for long-range strikes and Washington then provided intelligence on the sites vulnerabilities.” on.ft.com/4nJJxyt

The United States government currently employs an admiral named Brad Cooper and a DHS official named Chris Pratt

Пытался сбежать в США: бывшего «вагнеровца» из Казахстана отправили в колонию на пять лет Суд в Алматы вынес приговор Тимуру Пралиеву — бывшему наёмнику ЧВК «Вагнер», который участвовал в российском вторжении в Украину и был задержан, когда пытался нелегально попасть в США

Russia pinned medals on his chest and gave him citizenship, but Timur Praliyev's homeland of Kazakhstan just sentenced him to five years in prison for fighting in Ukraine as a mercenary with Wagner Group. orda.kz/pytalsja-sbe...

NY Post - Paramount Skydance is poised to name Bari Weiss as editor in chief of CBS News in the coming days. nypost.com/2025/10/02/media/p...

Vietnamese singer Duc Phuc wins Russia’s Intervision song contest Vietnam was among 23 countries competing in a glitzy Russian song contest, revived three years after Russia was banned from Eurovision.

Fortunately, I had better things to do over the past weekend, so this completely flew past me. How grotesque.

www.bbc.com/news/videos/...

Tug of war profiteers: Russia’s military industry is decimating the country’s civilian workforce Since the start of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, payments to soldiers have increased dramatically — not because the state has more money, but because it has become harder to lure men to the fron...

Tug of war profiteers: Russia’s military industry is decimating the country’s civilian workforce

As Russia’s defense sector and its civilian economy are locked in a wage race with one another, the state is forced to spend more on staffing the military.

An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.

Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...

Russia launches record mass drone attack on Ukraine Moscow’s forces fire 805 drones in one night, striking government building in Kyiv

on.ft.com/3HKFEtK Russia launches record mass drone attack on Ukraine

Bad Bunny's most recent album, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS, explores the colonial relationship between Puerto Rico and the US. Students at Yale are now diving into the lyrics in a new class: “Bad Bunny: Musical Aesthetics and Politics." My latest for @theworld.org theworld.org/stories/2025...

On Russia's upcoming elections and why they matter A couple of thoughts about the upcoming week in Russia.

New on Substack: a summary of the issues around Russia's upcoming regional and local votes and why these votes are interesting even under the current circumstances.

minczifra.substack.com/p/on-russias...

The Nobel Prize and a Testy Phone Call: How the Trump-Modi Relationship Unraveled

“The Indian leader bristled. He told Mr. Trump that U.S. involvement had nothing to do with the recent cease-fire. It had been settled directly between India and Pakistan.”

Russian Troops Gain a Toehold in Another Ukrainian Region

Another morale hit: For the 1st time, Russia reportedly seized villages in Urkaine's Dnipropetrovsk region. The NYT calls it "a minor but symbolic gain that gives the Kremlin another bargaining chip" as Russia tries to exert pressure along that stretch of the front. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/w...

Prigozhin knew he was ‘doomed’ after failed rebellion, says mother Violetta Prigozhina, 85, says she warned her son not to defy Putin’s authority before he was killed in a plane crash

"Yevgeny Prigozhin looked 'doomed' after his failed mutiny and told his mother he expected to die in the days before his private plane crash," reports @pjotrsauer.bsky.social, summarizing Violetta Prigozhin's interview with Fontanka. The authorities still haven't told her what happened to her son.

Russian airstrikes hit a U.S. factory in western Ukraine Two Russian cruise missiles hit a U.S. electronics plant in the far west of Ukraine. The strike was part of an overnight barrage of more than 600 drones and missiles.

Russia launched massive strikes in Ukraine last night, including on an American company called Flex.
www.npr.org/2025/08/21/g...

FT reports that Putin is demanding a resolution to the Ukraine war's "root causes," including a rollback of NATO's eastward expansion. It sounds like he's sticking to the terms presented to the US and NATO before the Feb 2022 invasion. A refresher:

Government papers found in an Alaskan hotel reveal new details of Trump-Putin summit Documents with sensitive details about the meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin were left behind on a public hotel printer.

Documents with sensitive details about the meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin were left behind on a public hotel printer.

Russia goes offline Mobile Internet blackouts in the Nizhny Novgorod region leave residents questioning officials’ explanations and fearing lasting restrictions — Meduza In the spring of 2025, mobile Internet providers began disabling service in regions across Russia. The authorities argue that the measures are necessary to protect civilians and strategically importan...

A lot of the Russian Internet news lately has focused on the Kremlin’s efforts to herd WhatsApp and Telegram users to the state-sponsored “MAX” substitute, but don’t sleep on this story from Nizhny Novgorod about experiments with a *total shutdown* of mobile data service. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

Trump 'can't hand Ukraine on a platter' to Putin, says former top advisor - The World from PRX Fiona Hill advised US President Donald Trump on Russia during his first term and is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. She’s also one of the few people to have been in a room with  Trum...

Insightful conversation here with Fiona Hill, a Russia expert who served on the National Security Council during Trump's first term. LISTEN: theworld.org/segments/202...

MORE: Ukrainian and European officials reportedly presented a counterproposal to US officials on August 9 as European officials continue to issue statements of support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
for an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar080925

Ukraine and Europe Counter Putin’s Cease-Fire Proposal The alternative blueprint to end the war comes after Russia demanded major territorial concessions and President Trump said he would meet with Vladimir Putin next week.

WSJ - European powers and Ukraine have responded to Putin’s cease-fire plan with a counterproposal that they say must serve as a framework so that coming talks between President Trump and the Russian leader can gain traction. www.wsj.com/world/ukrain...

SCOOP: Leaked drafts of the State Dept's annual human rights reports on El Salvador, Israel & Russia show the Trump admin is planning to eliminate or downplay accounts of prisoner abuse, corruption & LGBTQ discrimination www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Behind the Lines: Crimean Tatars Battle to Save their Language Suppression of language is a key part of Moscow’s drive to erase the Crimean Tatar identity as it seeks to colonize occupied Ukraine.

In occupied Crimea, Russia is accelerating efforts to suppress the Crimean Tatar language and culture. In the latest #BehindTheLines, Elina Beketova reports on how Crimean Tatars are fighting to preserve their identity.

Exclusive | Democrats Get Lowest Rating From Voters in 35 Years, WSJ Poll Finds Republicans are seen as better at handling most issues that decide elections despite respondents’ unease with President Trump over the economy, tariffs and foreign policy.

The Democratic Party’s image has eroded to its lowest point in 35 years, per @wsj.com poll, with 63% expressing an unfavorable view. Even so, Democrats edge Republicans in generic House matchup 46% to 43%. @aaronzitner.bsky.social www.wsj.com/politics/ele...

Competing Conspiracy Theories Consume Trump’s Washington

Washington is awash in conspiracy theories these days, a cascade of suspicion and intrigue promoted or denied in the Oval Office, ricocheting around Capitol Hill and cable news and propelled at warp speed across social media. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/u...

US reportedly considering allowing Chevron to resume production in Venezuela- but terms/length unclear. Volumes could be limited if short time and limited benefit to Ven govt. Logic of avoiding more Chinese influence makes sense, but US admin Ven policy still conflicted