Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士

Putin’s War Engine: How Healthy is Russia’s Oil and Gas Industry? With Sergey Vakulenko

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Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social!
open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...

Better Than Ever? Russia-China Relations, with Sergey Radchenko

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @radchenko.bsky.social discuss Sino-Russian relations in the past and present, and examine how strong the bond really is between the two.

Putin’s Play for Time How Trump’s performative diplomacy strengthens Russia’s hand.

At the summit in Alaska, Putin “matched Trump’s performative diplomacy with performative negotiations”—and essentially manipulated Washington into believing that Moscow was making serious concessions, writes @alexgabuev.bsky.social.

Putin’s Play for Time How Trump’s performative diplomacy strengthens Russia’s hand.

"Russia is playing Trump for time. But despite the country’s confidence, it’s not clear that Putin has a realistic contingency plan should Kyiv prove able to hold on."
Some insights in @foreignaffairs.com on the Kremlin's gameplan post-Alaska. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...

Putin is back in the driver’s seat on Ukraine Moscow is seeking victory, not compromise, through diplomacy — and Trump is playing along

"Continuing the war remains Putin’s only source of leverage to secure a desirable outcome, and he is unlikely to surrender this tool. The grim reality is that the talks will be accompanied by ongoing fighting." Some thoughts in @financialtimes.com. on.ft.com/46ZHhOh

A Friend in Need? Decoding Russia’s Position on the Israel-Iran War, with Nicole Grajewski and Arkady Mil-Man

How is Russia reacting to the ongoing Israel-Iran war, what's at stake for the Kremlin, and what's Putin's gameplan? We've unpacked this in a short episode of @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast with @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social & Arkady Mil-Man. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

Trump’s Greenland Obsession Will Not Secure America Countering Russia and China in the Arctic requires leveraging alliances, not fracturing them.

President Trump’s desire to “get” Greenland isn’t keeping the U.S. secure. By working with – not against – its allies, Washington can counter Russia and China in the Arctic.

@ibkardon.bsky.social‬ and @alexgabuev.bsky.social‬ explain for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/26/t...

YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Turbocharged and Vengeful: Managing the Challenge of a Rogue Russia

How can European and Asian democracies better prepare to manage the challenge posed by a rogue Russia? Join tomorrow's online discussion with @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Yuichi Hosoya, @sabfis3.bsky.social, and @maxseddon.bsky.social: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOJw...

Special Episode: Victory Day in Russia, with Arkady Ostrovsky

'The victory has been completely hijacked by Putin.' Arkady Ostrovsky talks to @alexgabuev.bsky.social. First out a couple of weeks ago, but it's a very important listen for anyone wanting to understand what WWII meant to Soviet people, and what it means now.
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

Special Episode: Victory Day in Russia, with Arkady Ostrovsky

How did the memorial aspect of Russia's Victory Day public holiday become overshadowed by militarism and belligerent slogans, and is it all about Putin these days? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Arkady Ostrovsky:

Russia building major new explosives facility as Ukraine war drags on Increasing the supply of explosives available to fill munitions is critical to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. A Reuters analysis of documents and satellite imagery finds that the new production line could boost its firepower significantly.

Russia is expanding its military-industrial complex and building new facilities. An important investigation by @reuters.com with @mashatsvetkova.bsky.social, @reporter-polina.bsky.social, @mcneill.bsky.social, @christianlowe.bsky.social, @zverevlive.bsky.social.
www.reuters.com/investigatio...

Xi and Putin are the greatest beneficiaries of Trump’s chaos Russia and China are unlikely to remain bystanders as America sorts out its own mess

"With Trump enthusiastically shattering the remains of the US-led order, Putin and Xi are unlikely to remain bystanders." Some thoughts on larger-than-life summit of the Russian and Chinese rulers in today's @financialtimes.com. www.ft.com/content/c5a1...

Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman Carnegie Politika is a digital publication that features unmatched analysis and insight on Russia, Ukraine and the wider region. For nearly a decade, Carnegie Politika has published contributions…

President Trump’s apparent belief that Ukraine will inevitably lose its war against Russia if it doesn’t accept a peace deal may not be in line with the battlefield reality.

@alexgabuev.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social explain for the @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast:

Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman

With breakdown of diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, battlefield dynamics remain essential for the future trajectory of the conflict. In the latest episode of "Politika"
podcast, I'm joined by my colleague
@michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack it. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

YouTube video by DW News Three theories of Trump’s strategy for American power | DW Analysis

Unpacking three theories of Trump’s foreign policy strategy with @stephenwertheim.bsky.social @lianafix.bsky.social @alexgabuev.bsky.social Gautam Chikermane of & Amanda Hsiao of @eurasiagroup.net

youtu.be/cVB2o1rNhPg?...

Trump’s Tariffs and Their Effect on Russia with Tatiana Mikhailova

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What are the consequences for Russia of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner? I'm discussing it with Penn professor Tatiana Mikhailova. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

China in the age of Trump 2.0 Can China take advantage of the new era of economic and political turbulence?

Here is one of the most eloquent and smart dissections of China's economy, tech, and geopolitics. By DGA Group's Joerg Wuttke in @gideonrachman.bsky.social's @financialtimes.com podcast. Well worth your time.
www.ft.com/content/02a0...

YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Are Trump’s Threats Against Russian Oil Realistic & Can the Kremlin Save Gazprom? | Sergey Vakulenko

Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel.
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...

BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: Perspectives from Member States, Partners, and Aspirants The potential of BRICS members and partner countries to fulfill their individual aspirations via BRICS hinges on what vision of the future of world order ultimately wins out within BRICS.

How do BRICS members, partners, and aspirants see the organization? A helpful summary by @carnegieendowment.org, with a small contribution by yours truly on Russian perspectives.

carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Lessons from Russia, Turkey and India for Trump’s America Fighting for democracy can be a lonely and dangerous business

"Every wrongful detention or ignored court ruling is a “trial balloon”. If there is no effective pushback, would-be authoritarians will go further and faster."
@gideonrachman.bsky.social with some lessons from Russia, Turkey, and India for Trump's America.
www.ft.com/content/804a...

A Deep Dive Inside Ukraine with Balazs Jarabik

After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of the unity of the Ukrainian people. But is the real picture more nuanced? We explore with Balazs Jarabik in the newest episode of "Politika" podcast. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

Putin’s Theories of Victory Russia sees Trump’s dealmaking as a can’t-lose proposition.

What might be the Kremlin’s theory of victory navigating Trump 2.0 and fourth year of its war against Ukraine? We dissect it in @foreignaffairs.com with my great colleagues Alexandra Prokopenko and Tatiana Stanovaya.
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...

Putin’s Theories of Victory Russia sees Trump’s dealmaking as a can’t-lose proposition.

Read @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Alexandra Prokopenko, and Tatiana Stanovaya on how Moscow won over the White House—and what Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to gain from U.S.-Russian talks:

Thrilled to dissect the craziness of today's geopolitics with inimitable @gideonrachman.bsky.social & Karin von Hippel , moderated by Jamie Smyth at @financialtimes.com's annual #FTCommodities global summit.

Can Trump Drive a Wedge Between Russia and China? With David Rennie and Yanmei Xie

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Your weekend podcast has arrived. I'm joined by great @dsorennie.bsky.social & Yanmei Xie to discuss whether Trump can drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. The short answer is "no," but it's the long answer that is more interesting and consequential.
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

There are no shortcuts to manage the Russia challenge Despite Trump’s diplomatic cavalry charge, the Kremlin will continue to view the west as an enemy

"A problem that the west can and should address is its wishful thinking about shortcuts to defeat Putin and manage the Russia challenge. Unrealistic expectations, have been part of the problem all along."

Some thoughts in @financialtimes.com on where we are in this ugly war.

on.ft.com/3D0c4ho

YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Russia-U.S. Talks on Ukraine: 3 Scenarios for Their Outcome, Plus China's Role | Alexander Gabuev

New video: @alexgabuev.bsky.social on the three main scenarios for the outcome of Russia-U.S. negotiations, along with Russia’s goals, U.S. and EU leverage over Russia, and China’s position: youtu.be/oYr8b-sTu8M

YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Russia-U.S. Talks on Ukraine: 3 Scenarios for Their Outcome, Plus China's Role | Alexander Gabuev

The last week feels surreal for Russia-U.S. relations for sure. But what could be the Kremlin's battleplan? I discuss it with inimitable Elizaveta Fokht.
youtu.be/oYr8b-sTu8M?...

Putin thinks time is on his side. Sadly he may be right, says Alexander Gabuev Efforts are under way to find a negotiated settlement. But, asks the head of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, has the Kremlin got the memo?

Trump says that he will end the war in Ukraine. But there is a problem: Vladimir Putin appears to be in no hurry to make concessions and accept a deal that is not on his terms. Some thoughts on the Russian calculus for @economist.com.
www.economist.com/by-invitatio...

Triangle of Sadness: Prospects of Trump-Putin-EU Peace Talks on Ukraine, with Eric Ciaramella

Your weekend podcast has arrived! In the newest episode, I sit down with @carnegieendowment.org senior fellow Eric Ciaramella to discuss potential negotiations to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, and how to ensure Ukraine's security and sovereignty. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...