Davud Rostam-Afschar

What do employers think about AI? Who benefits from AI? How are the labor market and qualification requirements adapting?
Check out our new discussion paper:
arxiv.org/abs/2510.21959

Excellent workshop, great discussions, and a fantastic venue! I presented new work (in progress) with Eckhard Janeba, Felix Köhler and Paul Steger on what the city of Mainz did with its excess tax revenue of 3.3 billion € or about 12,600 per capita due to the breakthrough of its superstar firm.

Bar chart of month over month change payroll employment in manually defined tech industry. In H1 2025, 2,000 jobs were lost on average monthly. This is a continuation of stagnation/modest job losses in tech started at the beginning of 2023. Sourced using data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics from the July 2025 release.

Line chart of payroll employment in manually defined tech industry. Tech employment is down 1.9% from the December 2022 peak or 76,000 fewer jobs. Sourced using data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics from the July 2025 release.

State of the tech job market halfway through 2025? Still stagnant, still not much better than the last 2.5 yrs.

Tech employment has dropped modestly from its Dec 2022 peak, falling 1.9%, or 76,000 jobs, with no improvement in 2025, despite the hype around AI + data center investment.

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Unternehmer in Deutschland sind zwar skeptisch und unzufrieden, aber die positiven Erwartungen auf das kurz- und mittelfristige Wirtschaftswachstum drücken doch einen gesunden Optimismus aus. Oder bin ich zu pessimistisch?

Mehr Einschätzungen 👇

Zölle sind immer noch aktuell...und aus US Sicht ist die Handelspolitik eher systematisch als erratisch.

Thank you! I absolutely agree. Melbourne is a fantastic place for research. Not only for economics, which is my focus.

What is behind tax elasticities? Often we think firms move when taxes increase. Asked directly, they indeed complain but experimental evidence shows they will not act. Instead tax cuts attract investments. Tax policy works like a ratchet due to home bias: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

If you do not have money for a student assistant but need an overview of relevant literature, try the Paper Search tool by @eduardbruell.bsky.social👇

I find myself using this quite often. One of the best AI/LLM tools for research. Thanks, Eddy!

Dear #Econsky and #TeachEcon,
I promise, I’ll be annoying you with this over the next few weeks! The @eeanews.bsky.social is once again awarding its two Teaching Awards. (1/2)

Fabulous!
Oceania Stata Conference 2025 Melbourne
@statacorp.bsky.social
surveydesign.com.au

Earning while learning: How to run batched bandit experiments

Davud Rosam-Afschar
University of Mannheim

rostam-afschar.de/bbandits/bba...

See @almostsurely.bsky.social

For an excellent presentation

Written while waiting for an appointment...

congrats! Good that you did not quit this research too early ;)

The Berlin School of Economics (@bseberlin.bsky.social) invites applications for several Research Associate positions for fixed-term appointments between 3 to 6 year. We're excited to see your application!

Check out @essobecker.bsky.social's list of fun titles 😂

One of my favorite:
Children Crying at Birthday Parties. Why?
doi.org/10.1007/s001...

We find that
🔹firms' plans respond within days to oil supply & monetary policy shocks but not to forward guidance shocks
🔹 effects are strong for small & non-tradeable sector firms
🔹 expectations respond strongly & swiftly, but only to monetary policy

More here 👇:
ideas.repec.org/p/bon/boncrc...

based on the German Business Panel

This allows to use novel high-frequency variation
🔹 for estimating contemporary aggregate effects
🔹 to detect transitory effects-invisible at lower frequency
🔹 to study short-run effects of central bank communication, carbon pricing, or geopolitical tensions,...

New working paper "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data" with Lukas Hack

We construct survey-based daily time series on
🔹 sales prices
🔹 dividends
🔹 fixed cost
🔹 R&D investments
🔹 firm survival
🔹 revenue
🔹 investment
🔹 policy satisfaction
🔹 profit
🔹 employment

Honored and excited to give the NZ Treasury guest lecture next week. Thanks for inviting me!

www.treasury.govt.nz/news-and-eve...

Sydneysiders and Wollongongers: I will be coming to town on 21 and 23 March to share some new research. Let me know if you'd like to catch up!

I will be presenting some new research in Melbourne at MI. If you are around and would like to meet up, let's get in touch!

Short guides with tricks and tips to understand and apply econometrics. Covering the classics: Probability, Distributions, OLS, Maximum Likelihood, Generalized Method of Moments. Based on my course at the university of Mannheim:

rostam-afschar.de/metricks/met...

Hope you find them useful!

Had a great time at ZEW. Thanks for having me! Stay tuned for some News results www.zew.de/en/events-an...