Daniel Zhao

SF speed cameras will start fining drivers San Francisco's network of 33 speed cameras will start fining drivers Tuesday.

Automated enforcement works: "Seven weeks after the cameras started issuing warnings, they recorded an average of 31% fewer speeding incidents than before, SFMTA data shows." sfstandard.com/2025/08/04/s...

Trump Fired America’s Economic Data Collector. History Shows the Perils.

President Trump didn't like the jobs numbers, so he fired the person responsible for producing them.
It's a move that has been tried before, by leaders of countries from Argentina to Greece to the Soviet Union. It rarely ends well.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b... #EconSky

Goldman: “The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to March 2025 nonfarm payrolls on September 9th. We estimate a downward revision on the order of 550-950k”

August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal

“The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) strongly condemns the removal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and the unfounded accusations leveled against the work of the agency…

A totally apolitical group.

files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/...

idle thought: the next set of benchmark revisions are probably going to be fairly negative

The negative revisions are basically everywhere

yet another reason we need to cut tariffs on coffee

Jobs growth being so low in May/June means that when we get the next round of benchmark revisions in Feb 2026 (preliminary est released in Sep), we might see a some negative months, breaking the streak of consecutive job gains since Jan 2021.

that's kind of weird (h/t/ @brianscheid.bsky.social)

Going to be waiting with bated breath for the May-June CES response rate data to help make sense of the huge revisions 😬

It's a wild ride on the Fedwatch tool rn! www.cmegroup.com/markets/inte...

The Black unemp rate has surged over the last 2 months, rising to 7.2%, the highest level since 2021.

The unemp rates by race are volatile month-to-month (see: Nov 2023-Mar 2024), but it is esp concerning for Black workers as sluggish hiring also makes it hard for laid-off workers to return.

9/

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Not flashing warning signs yet as its mostly stayed in the 4–4.2% range for the last year.

The labor force participation rate also dropped to 62.2% in July and is shrinking as the U.S. workforce ages.

8/

Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-over-year in July. I don't think we should be worried about wages contributing significantly to overall inflation, but it is a reminder that the Fed is walking a tightrope right now in supporting a slowing job market while inflation remains above target.

7/

Broader view shows slowdowns in some of the big jobs drivers from H2 2024 to H1 2025 in leisure & hospitality, health care, education and gov't

Construction, transportation & warehousing have also slowed while prof & biz services remains a consistent drag.

6/

Health care and social assistance is carrying the job market right now.

HCSA vs. all other industries:
July: +73.3k vs. -0.3k
June: +59k vs. -45k
May: +72k vs. -53k

Not great for jobs growth to be so thin, mostly supported by 1 sector

5/

Ok if you'll excuse the delay/slapdash nature (wasn't expecting to need a big revision chart breakdown).

The downward revisions were largest in government, but almost every major industry saw downward revisions in May and June.

4/

Much ink was spilled about the state & local gov't education job surge last month in the June jobs report, originally reported as +64,000. Turned out to be a mirage: After revisions, it came in at +7,500 in June.

3/

Total nonfarm payroll employment grew 73,000, below expectations, but the huge downward revisions brought May/June job gains down to near-zero.

Private payrolls were almost unchanged in June after revisions.

2/

Wow, weak July #jobsreport. Headline a touch softer than expectations, but real surprise is huge downward revisions to May & June.

-Payrolls grew just 73,000, below expectations
-Surprisingly large downward revisions to May (+144k to +19k) and Jun (+147k to +14k)
-Unemp up to 4.2%

#NumbersDay 1/

looks like a Phillips curve to me 👀

brb booting up Microsoft Flight Simulator so I can understand monetary policy

Medicare, Medicaid Plans to Experiment With Covering Weight Loss Drugs By Paige Winfield Cunningham (Washington Post) -- Some obese Americans on Medicare and Medicaid could get access to expensive weight loss drugs under a five-year experiment being planned by the Trump administration. Under the proposed plan, state Medicaid programs and Medicare Part D insurance plans will be able to voluntarily choose to cover Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound for patients for "weight management" purposes, according to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services documents obtained by The Washington Post. It's a strong signal that the administration is open to more broadly covering GLP-1 drugs — lauded by many as a miracle solution to Americans' long-standing struggle with weight — through government insurance programs. Medicare covers the drugs mainly for patients with Type 2 diabetes, even as some private insurance plans cover them for patients with obesity. The experiment is expected to start in April 2026 for Medicaid and January 2027 for Medicare plans, according to the documents. It will be conducted through a testing lab called the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI), which tries new ways for paying for health care with the goal of lowering costs and improving care.

WaPo reports CMS is considering a program that would cover GLP-1s for obese patients.

I found the story in the Chronicling America newspaper database at the Library of Congress website. It does not disappoint!

chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83045...

Amazon headcount was down ~1% in Q2 2025, first QoQ decline since Q1 2024. Doesn't say much about tech job market but it is separately interesting to see how flat employment has been over the last 1-2 years

Good read on the implications of slower population growth (especially from immigration) on how we evaluate the economy

Quiet day for unemployment insurance claims:
Initial: 218,000 vs. 217,000 prior wk
Continuing: 1,946,000 unchanged vs prior wk

No sign of rising layoffs in claims data + continuing claims are still modestly elevated vs 2024 but not accelerating.

On top of being a screenshot of a tweet, this post is spreading disinformation and you shouldn’t engage with it except to correct.

But since people are, I guess I need to do a thread explaining what imputation is. Everything I’m going to discuss here comes from one of two sources.

Data *quality* is a serious concern but we shouldn't jump to the conclusion of manipulation without evidence.

Sources:
bsky.app/profile/benc...
www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.wsj.com/economy/cpi-...
bsky.app/profile/benc...