my best performance given opponent was newcastle, by a fair bit!

2nd best was United probably

As for United:
super fit
spent 200mn on surefire above average EPL attackers.
will be tough to beat
don't have enough quality/patience for final action

lot of confirmation bias with this one for me - not sure i learned much.

I back them for a european finish with 1 game a week so good 3 points

What a weird Arsenal match.

Obviously trying to play more vertical. Ode might be the worst transition player I've ever seen, despite a good performance.

Felt like UCL final intensity with championship level final actions today.

honestly, same.

i was swayed by their easy start and the lack of other strikers i guess.

The last time a promoted side won a game vs. a non promoted side by a GD of 3 or more was 18 months ago when Luton beat Brighton 4-0

Good sign for the promoted teams, we might finally have a relegation battle!

Last year it didn't happen
The year before only once

22/23 it happened 3 times!

i think you mean the bournemouth opponent

Transfer Strategy: Liverpool EPL 25/26 kickoff thoughts

Liverpool just sold ~30% of last year’s minutes… after winning the league.

Quite rare I think.

Here are some thoughts on how they've approached this summer, criticisms I have of their business, and general thoughts on where they are!

talatabont.substack.com/p/transfer-s...

Hes very very good IMO

headed shots seem to have a bug where none of them are first-time, so digging into this.

the timeframe is our entire DB so everything starting 16/17 i think.

I can pull normal heading numbers - i'd assume 99% of headed shots are first-time tbh

alright lets do this again.

VG = 150/573 for 26% first time non-headed shots. 32% conversion.

BS = 93/296 for 31% first time non-headed shots. 21% conversion!

double checking the math here - feels like we might get rid of headed shots?

32% conversion on first time shots for Gyok
21% for BenjS

this was wrong i think.

VG 150/667 = 22%

BS = 93/386 = 24%

forgot to take away pens and FKs for gyokeres

Sesko 93 first time shots out of 386 for about 24%

Gyokeres 193/667 for 28%

will check this again but counterintuitive i guess

I'll get this for you on all shots tonight

I increasingly feel like I'd much rather a:
Giroud/Taremi/Callum Wilson type vet as a backup to Havertz than spending 80mn on any non Osi/Ekitite striker

Ref blew early so couldn't VAR unfortunately

7th is not europa league for forrest!

Palace have taken that EL spot.

7th is conf league unless it's chelsea

I think he'd be closer to like 6th-10th on my very silly list of if I needed to win a football game today

He has a great context around him
and least G+A output on his team
and lower OBV than Raph
and way less touch efficient

I feel like we've conflated best we've ever seen at 17 with best in the world

We rarely disagree, but I don't think I have him in top 5!

but hell yes on uefa handball, its ridiculous.

defenders can't have hands

One of the many areas EPL is awesome

think the angle makes it look like his arm is out, but its actually behind him. its why hakimi doens't see it!

Arsenal fans should know this because the best defensive fullbacks used to look like ivanovic/abidal and now it's all 179cm of timber

I think he's been quite bad this year tbh, including yesterday

If leeds come up I feel like they can stay up

He averaged 22 90s in the league in his 10 seasons.

Top player but always hurt.

And I don't know if Gerrard was missing a year and Liverpool getting 98 points

Seems important to you know..play the football.

Also seems relevant to mention the superteam

Flo flo flo flo flo flo

Only timber and martinelli are at risk of missing out I believe