Dan Gay

I find it hard to believe that he'd kill off three big, iconic American brands, not to mention an entire industry which central to US identity and employment, just to reduce union membership.

By slashing the industry's profits? I don't understand.

Trump has actually put the US car industry at a disadvantage over foreign competitors.

www.theatlantic.com/economy/arch...

How Trump has turned tariffs into diplomatic shakedowns The US president is increasingly tying trade policy to geopolitics, using economic might to bend countries to his will

Brings new meaning to the term infant industry protection.

“We really just started. This is just in its infancy,” the US president said of his radically protectionist trade policy.

on.ft.com/4m4Qv0d

7. Now, it’s US policymakers who moot capital controls, try to dictate interest rates, control immigration, erect high tariff barriers, use economic coercion and broadly deploy any form of economic control that they can.

How times change.

6. Neoliberalism has failed its stated goal, which was to float all boats. It is no longer analytically defensible. Nothing is sacrosanct about free-market liberalism. The economics that promotes it isn’t scientific. Capitalism isn’t ineluctably allied with free markets.

5. Clearly not. There are a few lessons - chief of which is not to blindly accept the pronouncements of the seemingly centrist mainstream. Often it can be wildly wrong. Think for yourself.

4. Nobody saw this coming. Literally no commentators foresaw a return to statism and few predicted the end of neoliberalism. Most thought that the world was on a one-way march toward a global free market paradise.

3. Now, industrial policy is everywhere; the US is raising tariffs to historically high levels; trade blocs are on the rise, as is economic coercion; no-one in power supports the free movement of labour. Dirigiste states like China are on the rise.

2. For anyone reaching adulthood after about 2008, it might be difficult to understand just how totalitarian was the discourse. Anyone suggesting that governments might protect anything, or run industries themselves, or not privatise, was shot down.

Dr Dan Gay (@dangay) It’s incredible just how far ‘acceptable’ economic discourse has shifted over recent decades. When I began my career in the late 1990s saying anything about building up state capacity or intervening i...

1/7. It’s incredible just how far ‘acceptable’ economic discourse has shifted over recent decades. In the late 1990s saying anything about building state capacity or intervening in markets was absolutely inadmissible - almost literal heresy. Neoliberalism was dominant.

substack.com/@dangay/note...

3/3 Although critical minerals and oil remain tariff-exempt, if I were running a big US corporation that depended on access to African resources, like Apple, Microsoft, ExxonMobil or Chevron, i'd be worried about longer term access and supply.

2/3 China is already Africa's largest bilateral trading partner. With the effective end of the African Growth and Opportunity Act that provided duty-free, quota-free access to US markets, the tariff differential will further drive Africa toward China.

🧵1/3. An open goal for China:

In response to US tariffs, Beijing is offering duty-free status to all 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations. This used to apply only to least developed countries.

Tariffs are already working their magic for the MAGA base then.🙄

Poorest US workers hit hardest by slowing wage growth - on.ft.com/4liFpDz

The US backs down, but the damage is already done
open.substack.com/pub/dangay/p...

The full impact of US tariffs on the world's worst-affected country As August 1 approaches, I spoke to my friend from the Lesotho government to understand the full effect of Trump's tariffs.

As August 1 approaches, I spoke to my friend in the Lesotho government to find out the true depths of its predicament. What I found out was truly shocking.

open.substack.com/pub/dangay/p...

A reminder: on August 1, imports from Europe to the US will face a 15% tariff, while imports from Lesotho to the US will face a 50% tariff.

SCOTLAND ON TRUMP: NO, PLEASE DON'T.

There's also obv a wider point - which is that because Trump has trashed the US's commitments and debased international law I suspect you'll see some countries quietly rolling back or not enforcing the IP laws they don't like - even if it's not an official 'negotiating tactic'.

Sure - any coalition risks breaking apart when one member is bought off. But of course many do survive...

Yeah, totally - as with most acts of US unilateralism, hardly anyone wants to raise their head above the parapet.

If I were an old-skool lefty i'd make the case for Southern solidarity.

I completely agree and i've long thought that the countries which in trade negotiations with the US were obliged to adopt onerous and anti-development intellectual property rules should now simply ignore them or amend the legislation.

Tsk tsk, @economist.com. This piece is pockmarked with clichés: "On the rocks," "sweet-talk," "balancing act," "hammered out," "halcyon days," "fall by the wayside".

I thought clear language was supposed to be your strength.

www.economist.com/finance-and-...

He's also isolating his own country and driving regionalism and consolidation in other parts of the world. Eg. A lot of trade will now be diverted to lower-tariff Europe. China is capitalising by lowering its tariffs on goods from developing countries. It just introduced a DFQF regime for LDCs.

Fantastic for Europe. As a 'development partner' of the least developed countries, i'm sure Von der Leyen was at pains to stress the devastating impact on the LDCs. Doubtless she negotiated hard on their behalf.

In four days Lesotho faces a 50% tariff. Its economy is already in freefall.

Really? I didn't know that. Wish I hadn't read the article now 🙄

She refers to cosmetic surgery as a 'genocide'?

YouTube video by CNN Zohran Mamdani responds to NYT not endorsing candidate

Oof, this is how to answer a question. The right should fear Mamdani: youtube.com/shorts/PzAk4...

Economics teaching has become the Aeroflot of ideas The discipline is failing students by ignoring the biggest social, political and ecological challenges facing the world today

Excellent, excellent piece by Ha-Joon Chang in the FT today.

Neoclassical economics has become the Aeroflot of ideas.

"You’re free to choose — as long as it’s neoclassical chicken." on.ft.com/45if5EV