Nathaniel Rakich

Remember, they count mail-in ticket sales first. Once Election Day ticket sales are counted, things will shift more toward Republicans.

‘Cowards’: Democratic election officials rip Bondi, Gabbard, Noem for bailing on event Pam Bondi, Tulsi Gabbard, and Kristi Noem were slated to speak to election officials on Friday. They didn’t show.

www.votebeat.org/2026/01/30/b...

A hill I will die on: message-testing polls are a legitimate way to figure out angles that resonate with voters. This kind of survey is not a "push poll."

A "push poll" isn't even a poll--they are not collecting or analyzing data, just spreading negative messages to a very wide audience.

At a Democratic press gaggle at NASS, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows says, “Noem, Bondi, and Gabbard were cowards for not showing up today.”

With secretaries of state gathered to hear from maybe Tulsi Gabbard, maybe Kristi Noem, the president of NASS got up and announced… no one is coming.

Axios reporting now that it’s just Gabbard. I’m at NASS, and everyone’s waiting with bated breath to see who’ll show…

Republicans propose major election-law changes ahead of 2026 midterms The GOP bills would be the biggest changes to federal election law in more than 20 years.

Republicans have essentially proposed their version of Dems’ For The People Act (HR 1). Here’s what’s in it, and why it’s unlikely to pass: www.votebeat.org/2026/01/30/r...

ICYMI!

.@votebeat.org is hiring a Senior National Reporter to cover issues of voting and democracy in 2026 and beyond. Reach out if you're interested in applying, we're a great place to work! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau...

Here's what election officials are saying about yesterday's FBI raid of a Georgia election office. www.votebeat.org/2026/01/29/e...

I asked the rep (Jared Borg, deputy director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs) afterward if Trump was planning another executive order on elections, and he had no comment.

House Republicans push election overhaul with voter ID, mail-in ballot changes ahead of midterms The Make Elections Great Again Act would mandate photo identification, tighten voter registration rules, overhaul mail-in voting and establish federal standards for U.S. elections.

I guess this is the week Republicans are really pushing their elections agenda! However, this bill won’t be able to get past the filibuster in the Senate. www.foxnews.com/politics/hou...

Fresh off the FBI raid of a Georgia election office and DOJ pressuring Minnesota to hand over its registered voter list, Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, and Tulsi Gabbard will be speaking to the National Association of Secretaries of State tomorrow afternoon, per a White House rep.

.@votebeat.org is hiring a Senior National Reporter to cover issues of voting and democracy in 2026 and beyond. Reach out if you're interested in applying, we're a great place to work! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau...

Calling all election reporters: We at @votebeat.org are hiring a senior national reporter! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau... Reach out to me if you have questions!

To clarify, the newsletter is @pbump.com's—it looks like he just used my spreadsheet of HOF election results as a source for his chart!

Thank you!

Fixed!

😬 Thanks!

Calling all election reporters: We at @votebeat.org are hiring a senior national reporter! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau... Reach out to me if you have questions!

I’m thrilled to announce that I’m joining @votebeatus to cover voting access, election administration and democracy across Arizona!

I've long admired this outlet's work, and I'm excited to be on the team.

I start today, so send tips and add me to press lists: shupka@votebeat.org.

Why Polls About the Killing of Renee Good Are So Hard to Parse

This is a must-read for anyone trying to say anything about U.S. public opinion on ICE and the recent killings in Minneapolis. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/23/p...

I mostly agree! I think it was interesting to election-admin nerds to see the red mirage/blue shift phenomenon, which was new in 2020, in action. But I think, in retrospect, it was not something we should’ve put out to a general audience.

#NY11 is the only Republican-held seat in NYC, and it might be about to get redrawn.

@kaleighrogers.bsky.social takes a great inside look at one of the most infamous charts in FiveThirtyEight history: www.poynter.org/ethics-trust...

Yep, in December 2028.

This article reminded me that Andruw debuted with just 7% in 2018—the same year that Johan Santana fell off with just 2%. If Johan had gotten just a few more votes that year, maybe he could've built momentum and gotten elected this year like Andruw.

A screenshot of the linked spreadsheet.

Here are the final numbers for how much each player dropped off from public to private ballots in this year's Baseball #HOF election. I have this data going back 18 years (!) in this spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

In kind of sad news, we were down to just two public #HOF forecasters this year (Dore's Flip Rate isn't really a forecast per se). Back in my day, in the halcyon days of 2019, there were #HOF forecasters as far as the eye could see…

A table showing that Jason Sardell had the lowest average error, median error, and root mean square error of Baseball Hall of Fame election forecasters in 2026.

Congrats to @sardell.bsky.social, who once again had the most accurate #HOF projections this year! However, @mwwdean.bsky.social and @shutthedore.bsky.social's Flip Rate model also had very good years.