Fred Oswald

Interested in models used to estimate lagged effects in panel data? We (@rebiweidmann.bsky.social, Hyewon Yang) have a new paper looking at patterns of stability and their implications for bias and model choice: osf.io/preprints/ps... [1/x]

Graduate Training Program - Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology Search Graduate Training Programs in I-O Psychology and Related Fields This database provides information about graduate-level training programs in Industrial-Organizational psychology. In addition, g...

this page contains some useful information (links to PDFs): www.siop.org/education/fo...

Keynote speakers: @tuckerdrob.bsky.social @foswald.bsky.social Ellen Hamaker

Hands-on workshops by:
@tedmond.bsky.social & @ukuvainik.bsky.social (genomic analyses)
@dirkwulff.bsky.social (LLMs in personality research)

www.ecp22edinburgh.org/programme

Psychological Methods invites early-career psychologists to apply to be a 2026 Editorial Fellow. This year kicked off our EF program -- it was enriching for the EFs and rewarding for everyone involved. Let's do it again!

For details:
www.apa.org/pubs/journal...

@apajournals.bsky.social

The Department of Psychological Sciences at Rice University, partnering with the Center for African and African American Studies, invites applications for a tenure-track position at the rank of associate or full professor to begin July 1, 2026.

apply.interfolio.com/172829

@ricesocsci.bsky.social

this just out

APA Journals Policy on Generative AI: Additional Guidance
www.apa.org/pubs/journal... via @apajournals.bsky.social

Sign the Petition Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods

as editor, I'm actually signing the petition myself :)

==
Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods - Sign the Petition! chng.it/wszLWM4KPX
==

e.g., look forward to exploring options for preregistration for the journal

@apajournals.bsky.social
@akmontoya.bsky.social

This is a really great paper - thank you, @dingdingpeng.the100.ci and @vincentab.bsky.social!

Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities Abstract Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).

Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve.

A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals). Illustrated are 1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals 2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and 3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

An arrow with a LaTeX equation

Trigonometric functions and a unit circle

A bivariate change model with structured residuals

A hierarchical model of cognitive abilities

Now on CRAN, ggdiagram is a #ggplot2 extension that draws diagrams programmatically in #Rstats. Allows for precise control in how objects, labels, and equations are placed in relation to each other.
wjschne.github.io/ggdiagram/ar...

APA Board Nominations Call for Nominations for the APA Board of Directors and Committee for the Advancement of General Applied Psychology

​​​​​​The APA is looking for people to join the Open Science and Methodology (OSM) expert panel. Nomination deadline: September 1st 2025.

nomination.apa.org?utm_campaign...

If you just got an email from APA encouraging you to come to this session, YOU SHOULD! Because the "Open Science and Methodology panel member" is ME! Come say hi! Learn about registered reports, and other awesome open science things at APA!

they need to change their seed every morning :)

The U-M Dept of Psych is hiring! We seek a tenure-track scholar exploring human cognition with generative AI—pushing the boundaries between biological and artificial minds. Apply at lnkd.in/eF2EXmJz

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

Speer, A. B., Oswald, F. L., & Putka, D. J. (2025). Reliability Evidence for AI-Based Scores in Organizational Contexts: Applying Lessons Learned From Psychometrics. Organizational Research Methods
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

The Science and Practice of Team Science Read online, download a free PDF, or order a copy in print.

The new National Academies report on the Science and Practice of Team Science is out today: nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/2904...

I was very excited to be a part of this group in order to discuss the role of open science in team science.

My most egocentric table by far :D

(Oswald, 2020; from Big Data in Psychological Research, S. E. Woo, L. Tay, and R. W. Proctor, Eds.)

Time for Congress to save American science … and the nation We believe the best hope for saving science and, perhaps, saving our form of democracy, is convincing at least a couple dozen Republican members of Congress that it’s up to them—that the stakes requir...

Time for Congress to save American science … and the nation
By John P. Holdren, Neal Lane | June 6, 2025

thebulletin.org/2025/06/time...

And to all I-O psychologists, my support for the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology (SIOP) remains stronger than ever :) n/n

...supporting and developing our graduate students, collaborating on interesting research projects, strengthening our networks within and outside the university -- and being kind and thoughtful colleagues. I wish the department continued success and look forward to visiting in the future! 4/n

As excited as I am for this new chapter in my career, I will dearly and deeply miss all my psychology colleagues at Rice University, who over the past 17 years have positively influenced virtually all aspects of my professional life... 3/n

As an industrial-organizational psychologist, I will join a highly collaborative and very productive group of scholars who span multiple disciplines (e.g., education, psychology, economics, and computer science). 2/n

Big professional and personal news to share: I've accepted a position as a professor at the UCI School of Education, effective January 2026, continuing my research on measuring skills relevant to education and the workforce. 1/n

🚨We’re hiring postdocs in Computational Social Science!
📍The Swedish Excellence Centre for Computational Social Science (SweCSS)
📅 Apply by June 3
🔗 liu.se/en/work-at-l...

Future Trajectories of Human-AI Collaboration and Teaming Register for this event from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

Join @sbs.nationalacademies.org for a webinar series on #Human-AI Teaming (HAT) to explore the future of human-AI partnerships.

The first session is next week on May 28 (1-2:30pm ET). Experts will explore effective collaboration with #AI.

Register: events.nationalacademies.org/45078_05-202...

When ChatGPT Broke an Entire Field: An Oral History | Quanta Magazine Researchers in “natural language processing” tried to tame human language. Then came the transformer.

www.quantamagazine.org/when-chatgpt...

scipost.org/JRobustRep.0...

Thank you, Florian! Will check this out.

Mean centering helps alleviate “micro” but not “macro” multicollinearity - Behavior Research Methods There seems to be confusion among researchers regarding whether it is good practice to center variables at their means prior to calculating a product term to estimate an interaction in a multiple regr...

a couple of psych papers on this, in case you haven't seen 'em:
link.springer.com/article/10.3...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Congratulations, Tom! What a terrific accomplishment, and I'm looking forward to reading your book.