Manuel Rausch

Similarities and differences in the effects of different stimulus manipulations on accuracy and confidence Visual stimuli can vary in multiple dimensions that affect accuracy and confidence in a perceptual decision-making task. However, previous studies hav…

Glad to see my first-year project is out!

In two experiments, we manipulated multiple stimulus features in a perception task, yet their effects on confidence and accuracy fell into just two distinct behavioral patterns, offering a way to predict the effects of novel stimulus manipulations.

1/n

Sure, you can be for or against AI, but to be against AI and trying to compete in the Hunger Games of academia is rather foolish.
replicationindex.com/2025/10/04/i...

My article "Data is not available upon request" was published in Meta-Psychology. Very happy to see this out!
open.lnu.se/index.php/me...

A picture of our paper's abstract and title: The order of task decisions and confidence ratings has little effect on metacognition. Task decisions and confidence ratings are fundamental measures in metacognition research, but using these reports requires collecting them in some order. Only three orders exist and are used in an ad hoc manner across studies. Evidence suggests that when task decisions precede confidence, this report order can enhance metacognition. If verified, this effect pervades studies of metacognition and will lead the synthesis of this literature to invalid conclusions. In this Registered Report, we tested the effect of report order across popular domains of metacognition and probed two factors that may underlie why order effects have been observed in past studies: report time and motor preparation. We examined these effects in a perception experiment (n = 75) and memory experiment (n = 50), controlling task accuracy and learning. Our registered analyses found little effect of report order on metacognitive efficiency, even when timing and motor preparation were experimentally controlled. Our findings suggest the order of task decisions and confidence ratings has little effect on metacognition, and need not constrain secondary analysis or experimental design.

🚨 Out now in @commspsychol.nature.com 🚨
doi.org/10.1038/s442...

Our #RegisteredReport tested whether the order of task decisions and confidence ratings bias #metacognition.

Some said decisions → confidence enhances metacognition. If true, decades of findings will be affected.

A new version of the statConfR R package is now available on CRAN. Now the CASANDRE model and the response-congruent evidence model are available as well. Check it out! Bug reports much appreciated.

“On the poor statistical properties of the P-curve meta-analytic procedure”
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/25/o...

Introducing hMFC: A Bayesian hierarchical model of trial-to-trial fluctuations in decision criterion! Now out in @plos.org Comp Bio.
led by Robin Vloeberghs with @anne-urai.bsky.social Scott Linderman

Paper: desenderlab.com/wp-content/u... Thread ↓↓↓

#PsychSciSky #Neuroscience #Neuroskyence

Common neural choice signals reflect accumulated evidence, not confidence! Now out in @cerebralcortex.bsky.social w @helenevanmarcke.bsky.social @pierreledenmat.bsky.social @yfvisser.bsky.social @denizerdil.bsky.social a.o.

Paper: desenderlab.com/wp-content/u... Thread ↓↓↓

Senior Scientist at the Faculty of Psychology. Start date 1 October 2025 or as soon as possible thereafter. 20 hours per week. Salary according to the collective bargaining agreement §48 VwGr. B1 lit. b (postdoc). Contract (initially) limited for 4 years and 3 months. Job ID: 4269

Re-advertisement: #HPGVienna @univie.ac.at is hiring! We are looking for a PhD-level researcher excited about all things EMA to join us as Senior Scientist/ Lab Manager as soon as possible. Position is initially for 4.25 years & part-time (50% FTE) (more info in 🧵).
jobs.univie.ac.at/job/Senior-S...

For all who use Bayesian hierarchical models, have a look at our new preprint, out now together with @linushof.bsky.social @nunobusch.bsky.social and @thorstenpachur.bsky.social

osf.io/preprints/ps...

Can we use confidence-driven information-seeking as a tool to combat fake news!? Really cool study by really cool @helenevanmarcke.bsky.social ↓↓↓

Happy to announce that I I'll be moving to Austria soon to start a new job @uniklagenfurt.bsky.social as senior scientist. Looking forward to meeting new colleagues and students!

A Cross-Sectional Study of the Completeness of Preregistrations by Psychological Authors From German-Speaking Institutions - Lena Hahn, Andreas Glöckner, Mario Gollwitzer, Jens Hellmann, Jens Lange, S... Preregistering confirmatory research aims at reducing researchers’ degrees of freedom and increasing transparency to ultimately increase replicability. Yet the ...

How complete are preregistrations?

Short answer: 53% include all 6 procedural specifications

Medium answer: 🧵

Long answer: check out my publication with A. Glöckner @mariogollwitzer.bsky.social J. Hellmann, J. Lange, S. Schindler & @kaisassenberg.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1177/2515...

An abbreviation (ABB) in a journal article (JA) or Grant Application (GA) is rarely worth the words it saves. Every ABB requires cognitive resources (CR) and at my age by the time I'm halfway through a JA or GA I no longer have the CR to remember what your ABB stood for.

Metascience 2025 recordings are now available! #Metascience25 gathered researchers, funders, policymakers & more to explore how the research process can improve. The program included preconference symposia & plenary sessions on topics from policy change to AI in research.

🎥 cassyni.com/s/metasc...

Here is a post-publication peer-review of this article.

replicationindex.com/2025/08/08/r...

Cover page for the manuscript: Morey, R. D., & Davis-Stober, C. P. (2025). On the poor statistical properties of the P-curve meta-analytic procedure. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2025.2544397

Abstract for the paper: The P-curve (Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons, 2014; Simonsohn, Simmons, & Nelson, 2015) is a widely-used suite of meta-analytic tests advertised for detecting problems in sets of studies. They are based on nonparametric combinations of p values (e.g., Marden, 1985) across significant (p < .05) studies and are variously claimed to detect “evidential value”, “lack of evidential value”, and “left skew” in p values. We show that these tests do not have the properties ascribed to them. Moreover, they fail basic desiderata for tests, including admissibility and monotonicity. In light of these serious problems, we recommend against the use of the P-curve tests.

Paper drop, for anyone interested in #metascience, #statistics, or #metaanalysis! @clintin.bsky.social and I show in a new paper in JASA that the P-curve, a popular forensic meta-analysis method, has deeply undesirable statistical properties. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 1/?

2 new job opportunities at the @cais-research.bsky.social:
- PhD student, team "Research Data & Methods" stellenangebote.cais-research.de/de?id=f50b76
- Researcher, DFG project "SocEnRep - Automation of Reproducibility in Economics and Social Sciences" stellenangebote.cais-research.de/de?id=f50b76

Confidence in absence as confidence in counterfactual visibility: a CogSci proceedings paper with star MSc student Maya Schipper, is now out on PsyArXiv:

osf.io/preprints/ps...

🧵👇

Easily download files from the Open Science Framework with Papercheck Researchers increasingly use the Open Science Framework (OSF) to share files, such as data and code underlying scientific publications, or ...

New blog post: Easily download files from the Open Science Framework with Papercheck daniellakens.blogspot.com/2025/07/easi...

Downloading all files in an OSF project can be a hassle. Not anymore, with Papercheck! Just run:

osf_file_download("6nt4v")

🚀Join our team @tuda.bsky.social ! 🚀
I'm looking for 3 PhDs & 1 Postdoc for my @erc.europa.eu project “C4: Compositional Compression in Cognition and Culture” to study learning across individuals, teams, and cultural timescales
👉 PhD: hmc-lab.com/ERC_PhDs.html
👉 Postdoc: hmc-lab.com/ERC_Postdoc....

Interested in the latest metascience? Come to Eindhoven October 17th to listen to Dr. Duygu Uygun-Tunç (University of Chicago) and Dr. Lisa Spitzer (Leibniz-Institut für Psychologie) as keynote speakers, and Dr. Aaron Peikert for a workshop collaboration through Git! All free!

Declassified CIA Guide to Sabotaging Fascism Is Suddenly Viral The World War II-era "Simple Sabotage Field Manual" is full of steps that office workers can take to resist leadership.

Suddenly, out of nowhere, a declassified World War II-era CIA guide to sabotaging fascism in the workplace has become one of the most popular free ebooks on the internet:

www.404media.co/declassified...

We are happy to provide lunch during all days of the conference starting from today #ASSC28 🍽

🚨 PhD position (75%, TV-L E13) at LMU Munich!
Join our DFG funded META REP project on heterogeneity & replicability in psychology.
Work on meta analysis, simulations, modeling in R/Python.
📅 Apply by July 15
🔗 shorturl.at/939tP
🔗 shorturl.at/2bRLD
👇🧵

Sluggishness and defensiveness helped enable an executive order on research integrity In the last week, Science has published commentary condemning and supporting the Restoring Gold Standard Science executive order from the Trump administration that purports to strengthen research inte...

“It is possible to support science and hold it accountable at the same time.”

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

GitHub - spm/spm-python: The Python interface to SPM The Python interface to SPM. Contribute to spm/spm-python development by creating an account on GitHub.

Drumroll... The SPM team will announce that SPM is now fully accessible from Python! 🐍 Learn more about SPM-Python at the SPM roundtable event (Friday, 1pm) and poster number 1841 at #OHBM2025. Try the beta for yourself at github.com/spm/spm-python [2/7]

Protesters Urged Not To Give Trump Administration Pretext For What It Already Doing LOS ANGELES—Responding to escalating clashes between civilian activists and militarized immigration authorities, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass publicly urged protesters Monday not to give the Trump adm...

Protesters Urged Not To Give Trump Administration Pretext For What It Already Doing

Well done young jedi.

Urkunde + weiße Rose

Massive congrats @sehellmann.bsky.social for his well-deserved win of the Yearly Price for the best dissertation at the KU!